Top 3 Things

[froggy]

Ok Shoeless.

I can take a hint.
I'll take off my zombie hat and come out of the closet
Here is what I look for. (more or less)

First I look at:

1) Recent action, workouts, and overall general form. ("HOW WILL YOUR HORSE RUN TODAY")

2) Tandems

3) Speed. (early/late/total)

4) What has the horse been doing lately and with whom.

Then I look for a pace line that might represent today's probable effort.
I will go as many as 5 or 6 lines down if necessary.

6) No mud or slop. (I find that the SR is usually elevated for those races)

7) Never use the highest SR in his running line (They are usually an aberration)

8) Avoid projected or extracted if at all possible.

There, that's my three things.

I have been handicapping for a lot of years and I am finding the more I know the less I know.

Froggy

[Dumptruk]

Here's my 3 things:

1) Take a line with today's track and today's distance if possible. For example, race is at GP today, last 5 lines are at Calder. I sometimes go to that 6th line to get another GP line. Especially if that line is better than the Calder ones. Horses for courses is a big deal to me. But there are always exceptions of course.

2) Take a line in a current form cycle with today's connections. Don't use a line with Scott Lake listed as the trainer if today's trainer is Jeff Odintz.

3) Don't be so forgiving of trouble. Sometimes you'll see a trouble line and assume that the horse ran badly because of it. But reality is that the horse is really just going off form. Judgement call here.

There's a lot more things to cover, but you would have to write a book. I think paceline selection is somewhat of an art and should be done by the handicapper. That's one thing I like about the Sartin programs is that none of them have automatic paceline selection. You have to do the grunt work to make it happen.

[shoeless]

Froggy and Dumptruk good posts THANKS Jeff

[JimG]

One thing I have noticed, for what it's worth, when using Val3 or RDSS, I generally get better results if I choose lines that not only are somewhat recent, but very close in speed ratings. My better success has been in races where 5 speed points or less separate the top and bottom horses.

Jim

[noddub62]

Mr. No Shoes,

This is a great thread that you started but I think that there are as many different thoughts as there were views, me included. I have enjoyed this game for close to 30 years and I've tried just about all of it from A to Z. I think you just have to go with what works best for your individual style of play after a lot of experience and work.

For me, being from Texas which is adjacent to Oklahoma, I am begining to pick up some "HAT" voodoo from across the big Red River. At times when I can get in the "Zone" and get the flow of the race going it is like something I've not experienced in my handicapping ever before. To get in this "Zone", upon reflection, I don't give too hoots and a holler about anything but fast horses, not recency, not off-tracks, not nothing, and this came from all of the Match-Up info from the masters of Match-Up, Mr. Hat and Mr. Richie. Now saying that, it's not easy to do always but you can train yourself to find that zone, I believe.

Shoeless, I enjoy your posts very much and know that this wasn't worth much but at least you know I don't always hide in the closet.

Good Capping to you and keep smiling,
Bud

[shoeless]

Bud,Thanks for the reply.Good Cappin to you as well.Jeff

[Chip Napolitano]

Shoeless,
1) I try to determine is the horse is improving or declining in his form cycle.Very few horses remain the same. They are either going up or going the other way.

2) If there are 2 real ugly lines in a row and I can not find an excuse the horse is out of consideration for the race.

3) I start at the bottom of the past performances and working my up to the last race try to find patterns of any kind that will be of help today in determining a line or lines to consider

Chip

[peter e]

This has worked well for me over the years:

Eliminate the horses that are obviously out of form. If there is any doubt leave a horse in.

Pick a paceline for all the remaining horses.

Let the program separate the contenders. In "Energy" this means eliminate any horses without a 1 or 2 in their readouts. I don't know about the other programs but there must be similar readouts that can narrow the field.

The key that makes this approach work is when picking pacelines there are 2 or 3 or more horses that you are unsure of, pass the race. This might be first time on the turf, first time on the grass, lots of back class but poor recent form, a horse that won its last race and then is layed off (especially cheap claimers). Anything that presents a question about a horses chances and there is no satisfactory answer. After doing this for a while you get a fairly good idea about what races may be unplayable, or races where you might demand higher than normal odds on your picks.

[shoeless]

Chip and Peter E thanks for the contributions and Im very happy that this post has gone well reply and view wise.I think it's great getting posts on these type of subjects rather then just all the time getting them on a computer program or selections.It's a nice change of pace.Jeff