nice basic wagercapping example

[Fast4522]

Wager capping is a very effective way of beating bad track varients, but a very ineffective way of beating the chalk.
A dated concept that holds little merit today.

[shoeless]

Hey Fast we are finally agree on something,maybe it's my old age setting in.Jeff

[Fast4522]

Jeff,
It is very hard to get a group of folks or a large room full of them to agree on anything, just look at our congress.

[RichieP]

Going to what Steve and Jeff were talking about regarding depressed win prices in today's racing:

Here are the last 2 cards each at Churchill and Delta Downs.I focus on these 2 because they have full fields and are running meets that just opened. Usually a nice combo for causing chaos and big mutuals.

What is shown are the ml odds and then the actual win price. Couple of races are omitted because of large # of first time starters and a couple of others you will not see the ml odds because the winner did not make my final grade.

28 races - You be the judge in this albeit small sample

[admin]

Hello Rich

It looks to me like the shoter price m/l horse tend to go down a little
the mid level - (less than 5/1 but more than 5/2)are consistan but that over 5/1 are paying very good I love that 5/1 to $40.00 on and others

[admin]

Hi Rich My $28.00 winner at finger lakes the winner # 5 Diamond
was 6/1 ML

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by admin

Hello Rich

It looks to me like the shoter price m/l horse tend to go down a little
the mid level - (less than 5/1 but more than 5/2)are consistan but that over 5/1 are paying very good I love that 5/1 to $40.00 on and others

Now here are the same races lined up by V/DC tier. If they line up the 38.00 winner is tier 1 while the 40.00 win is in the now infamous tier 3

Only TWO horses(of the winners in the final mix) were NOT in the top 3 V/DC tiers. Two out of 24 winners in final mix that won. Pretty powerful "qualifying" corollary to me.

[admin]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Now here are the same races lined up by V/DC tier. If they line up the 38.00 winner is tier 1 while the 40.00 win is in the now infamous tier 3

Only TWO horses(of the winners in the final mix) were NOT in the top 3 V/DC tiers. Two out of 24 winners in final mix that won. Pretty powerful "qualifying" corollary to me.

As our friend Aline said in the smt audio clips

"I bet him because of the corollies"

Two powerfull corollarys Rich
VDC and going off odds
Thats wagercapping Thank you Rich for making this presentation
it ties up many points

GS
today
Bill

[shoeless]

The main point I was TRYING to make is that Doc AT FIRST didnt like wagercapping.Also THERE IS NO WAY TO PREDICT what horses will pay now as to years past.If someone is able to do this they should be in the stock market not racing.Jeff

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by shoeless

The main point I was TRYING to make is that Doc AT FIRST didnt like wagercapping.Also THERE IS NO WAY TO PREDICT what horses will pay now as to years past.If someone is able to do this they should be in the stock market not racing.Jeff

You want a locked-in price?

Use a betting exchange. Problem solved.