Factor Analysis -- Creating Energy Pars - Pace and Cap

alydar_ David · 12-05-2007, 01:53 AM

Pars.

There are basically three kinds of pars:

1) $10,000 Claimers per track
2) Velocity Pars
3) Energy Pars

This post will visually show how to create Energy Pars. This first appeared (to the best of my knowledge) in the 1983 Factor Analysis manual.

The image should be self-explanatory:

alydar_ David · 12-05-2007, 01:58 AM

Okay, now you know how to make an Energy Par? What good is it? How do you use it?

What I did (and with considerable success at Saratoga…as far as I know I was the only person making and using them there at the time) was to employ the technique found in the orange manual, which was called Sartin Seminar Workbook, Chicago, 1985.

Notice there are three entries for 6f: High, Low and Average. What I did was take the last seven non-maiden races run at Saratoga. I then threw out the best Total Energy. I also threw out the worst Total Energy. That left me five races. From those I got the High, Low and Average.

For the next 6f race I handicapped and was about to bet, I automatically tossed out any horse that could not run to the Low Energy minimum. As you can imagine sometimes I’d throw out any horse that couldn’t run to the Average. It depended on the makeup of the race – how good the horses were in that particular event.

Did I have to change this every day? Answer: Yes, if a 6f race was run that day then the profile would have to be updated. Was this a lot of work? Answer: Yes, considering I was doing it for every distance run at the track, for every track I played.

I’d rather not go into any more detail at this point. Here’s the image:

alydar_ David · 12-06-2007, 01:29 PM

The next step would be to consider horses that fall within the %Early (or Median) requirements.

Using the above as an example, if today were a 6f event, the only horses I'd consider were ones that:

1) Passed the Minimum Energy requirements,
and
2) Ran %Early between 51.54% and 48.46%

No other horse would be considered for a win bet (let's forget about exotics for a while).

12-05-2007, 01:53 AM	#1
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Factor Analysis -- Creating Energy Pars Pars. There are basically three kinds of pars: 1) $10,000 Claimers per track 2) Velocity Pars 3) Energy Pars This post will visually show how to create Energy Pars. This first appeared (to the best of my knowledge) in the 1983 Factor Analysis manual. The image should be self-explanatory: Attached Images

12-05-2007, 01:58 AM	#2
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Okay, now you know how to make an Energy Par? What good is it? How do you use it? What I did (and with considerable success at Saratoga…as far as I know I was the only person making and using them there at the time) was to employ the technique found in the orange manual, which was called Sartin Seminar Workbook, Chicago, 1985. Notice there are three entries for 6f: High, Low and Average. What I did was take the last seven non-maiden races run at Saratoga. I then threw out the best Total Energy. I also threw out the worst Total Energy. That left me five races. From those I got the High, Low and Average. For the next 6f race I handicapped and was about to bet, I automatically tossed out any horse that could not run to the Low Energy minimum. As you can imagine sometimes I’d throw out any horse that couldn’t run to the Average. It depended on the makeup of the race – how good the horses were in that particular event. Did I have to change this every day? Answer: Yes, if a 6f race was run that day then the profile would have to be updated. Was this a lot of work? Answer: Yes, considering I was doing it for every distance run at the track, for every track I played. I’d rather not go into any more detail at this point. Here’s the image: Attached Images

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12-06-2007, 01:29 PM	#3
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	The next step would be to consider horses that fall within the %Early (or Median) requirements. Using the above as an example, if today were a 6f event, the only horses I'd consider were ones that: 1) Passed the Minimum Energy requirements, and 2) Ran %Early between 51.54% and 48.46% No other horse would be considered for a win bet (let's forget about exotics for a while).