Losing 'Streaks'

[tfm]

Was looking at some data from TwinSpires yesterday and thought this might be of note. The data consists of a bit more than 400 races wagered, win bets and, in almost all cases, 1 or 2 number exacta or double wagers. This is over the course of 5 months (though, there was very limited play in half of them).

The following are the number of LOSING plays: successive plays without a winner. From highest down:

34
25
21
14
13
12
11
10 (4 separate instances)
9 ( 2 separate instances)


What's pretty amazing to me, is that I'm winning. And, if I could only control those days where I just go off form and over bet, I'd be fine. Over the course of these 400+ races, I've fluctuated from 40% (of starting bankroll) ahead, to 60% (of starting bankroll) behind (closest I came to busting out) and back again.

Don't know for sure, but I would suppose that streaks of this sort are probably common. Though, it does take a while to get comfortable with this.

This year was supposed to be a learning process for me and it's certainly been that.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by tfm

Was looking at some data from TwinSpires yesterday and thought this might be of note. The data consists of a bit more than 400 races wagered, win bets and, in almost all cases, 1 or 2 number exacta or double wagers. This is over the course of 5 months (though, there was very limited play in half of them).

The following are the number of LOSING plays: successive plays without a winner. From highest down:

34
25
21
14
13
12
11
10 (4 separate instances)
9 ( 2 separate instances)


What's pretty amazing to me, is that I'm winning. And, if I could only control those days where I just go off form and over bet, I'd be fine. Over the course of these 400+ races, I've fluctuated from 40% (of starting bankroll) ahead, to 60% (of starting bankroll) behind (closest I came to busting out) and back again.

Don't know for sure, but I would suppose that streaks of this sort are probably common. Though, it does take a while to get comfortable with this.

This year was supposed to be a learning process for me and it's certainly been that.

It seems from your posts that you prefer your play to be on horses that are not among the betting choices. This being the case, you can expect longer losing streaks and greater swings in bankroll that are normal for that type of play. The fact that you are ahead speaks well of the concept of lower win percentage vs. longer odds and your ability to achieve a win percentage sufficient enough to currently be in that position.
You may or may not have read in one of my prior posts that I have a data base of over 4,000,000 horses or 500,000 races that I have accumulated over 12+ years. Having worked with this information for that period of time, I can tell you that 400 races are not a lot of races on which to make a judgment. I believe I mentioned in another post to you that I have seen 5,000 races on a particular type of play show a positive ROI only to see that ROI completely disappear in the next 5,000 races and ultimately, the type of play being tracked was a loser. It takes A LOT of races to prove the stability of an ROI.

[Bill V.]

Hi TFM

I have a question. can you see from these records
your bet size
Is it consistent/ do you bet a flat rate or a percentage of bank
From what you show it appears you wait for value
and bet consistantly
Many will increase there bets too quicky after some succcess
or bet lower price streak stoppers

Things look good
you might be looking at tracks that tend to card for lower price horses
and you look like you avoid favorites
some tracks pay better for your work

Bill

[Nets]

Originally Posted by tfm

Don't know for sure, but I would suppose that streaks of this sort are probably common. Though, it does take a while to get comfortable with this.

This year was supposed to be a learning process for me and it's certainly been that.

Yesterday I hit my first 3 w/p bets. That was followed by 6 consecutive losses. Very common to lose several in a row at the odds I generally require. The hard part is when the losses happen first, it takes a lot sometimes to stick with the plan while waiting for the wins.

Gary

[gandalf380]

That is why it is important to understand your handicapping and betting. If you believe in what you are doing, then you will have the confidence to ride out the losing streaks. Remember, all losing streaks are ended by a win.

[tfm]

I play the same amount every race: just a little bit below 1% of starting bankroll.

[Nets]

Originally Posted by gandalf380

That is why it is important to understand your handicapping and betting. If you believe in what you are doing, then you will have the confidence to ride out the losing streaks. Remember, all losing streaks are ended by a win.

Exactly. I am finally sticking to one approach, and one only, and I feel that it is right for me. When you develop confidence in your method, you eventually realize that you can still be right even when you lose. Every race has its own dynamics and so many variables, there are going to be times that you just can't find the winner with your method. The key for me has been learning to just forget those races and go on to the next, using the same methods.

Handicapping is one strange deal. You can be successful even though you will likely lose more often than you win. In this "winning is everything" world, it takes some mental adjustment to deal with that.

Gary