Historical % of winning favs

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

I sometimes wonder what stimulates the discussion over the deterioration of prices. Here's the reason why.

The first thing I did was go back to 2001, 2002 and 2003 and averaged all the winning prices for each year separately. Then I did the same for 2010. Here are the results.

2001 = $12.37 average winning price
2002 = $12.44 average winning price
2003 = $12.72 average winning price
2010 = $12.37 average winning price

Since the average winning price for those years was $12.00+, I decided to go back to the same year(s) and see what percentage of winners paid $12.00+. Here are the results.

2001 = 30%
2002 = 30%
2003 = 31%
2010 = 30%

Keep in mind that each year consists of more than 40,000 winners, so the numbers are pretty solid.

Myself, I don’t see the problem. In the end:
RACE selection
Contender selection
Line selection
Value
and just plain solid horse racing and handicapping knowledge makes the difference.

As far as the whales are concerned, the best of everything to them, I’m not betting on those short priced horses anyway.

FTL,

As to your basic point, that it's still possible to win and find value, I agree. However, Dave's charts indicate why it's become more difficult in recent years. More winners are now concentrated at lower odds everywhere.

The 'average' figures you cite don't reveal this shift in the way that a median, or better, a scatter-graph of winners would. Even though the average price of all winners may be constant, the median has shifted downward. Unlike in the recent past, when horses won at about their odds, as Dave's charts indicate, as the odds go up past 5/2, they're winning at one or two ticks lower then their odds would previously have indicated. And, as you say, 30% of horses win at odds of 5-1 or greater, but if you check Dave's chart, you'll see that of winners going off at 9/2 or greater (roughly the range you're talking about), 75% are going off at between 9/2 and 6-1. All winners above 6-1 would include only about 7.5% of all winners.

Many professional players, including Dave and Jeff P., have discussed this phenomenon on PA, and I don't think there's much question of it's reality.
As you say, the cause may ultimately be irrelevant, and it's still possible to make money, but it's become necessary to look much longer and harder than ever, in the past.

Cheers,

B Jennet