New Pace performance request

[mikesal57]

BJ...your going to find a hard time getting results from other tracks here on New Pace
besides Pino and Rich , I have tried to draw out NP users here and at Pace Advantage with not much luck..
Either there is no advantage or they are holding out on how they use it..
Just recently Dorianmode has joined in and shows us how he uses it as a "tool" in his handicapping approach.

In post #73, in my thread, I gave some results at other tracks ...comments?
Mike


P.S. - Even its creator is a no-show

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

BJ...your going to find a hard time getting results from other tracks here on New Pace
besides Pino and Rich , I have tried to draw out NP users here and at Pace Advantage with not much luck..
Either there is no advantage or they are holding out on how they use it..
Just recently Dorianmode has joined in and shows us how he uses it as a "tool" in his handicapping approach.

In post #73, in my thread, I gave some results at other tracks ...comments?
Mike


P.S. - Even its creator is a no-show

Hi Mike,

I think Ted was a bit overly optimistic that there would be much research done on this product. NP has been out for nearly a year now - long enough for most users to realize that it's going to lose money under most conditions, and is basically a niche product. It's possible that a few beside Pino and yourself have found some of these, but as I've said, I think these are more likely to be track-type and clas- specific, rather than applying only to individual tracks. NP was designed as a one-size-fits-all product, often to its detriment, but it also means that what works at one track should work at similar tracks.

BTW, I did comment on your race-summary post #73, if you want to take a look. Not to repeat everything, but if you continue to want to find value in win-betting NP, set your minimum bet no lower than 10-1, and include all above that level (or whatever you choose as an upper limit), and then recalculate and see if it can get into the black. As I said, I think exotic betting looks much more promising.

Since the posting on this subject is, as you say, barely existent, I'll try to PM you when I have more time.

BTW, please don't take anything Dave says about the profit potential of his products seriously.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[Dave Schwartz]

BJ,

Amazing. Still provoking as I see.

For a guy who doesn't have the product you sure pretend to know a lot a lot about it. But then, you pretend to know a lot about a lot of things, don't you?



Dave Schwartz

[Bill V.]

hello Dave

I just did a quick search and you have not posted anything in the open area
of pace and cap since mid October yet a soon as a few NP comments show up, so do you.

There have been many races that a few of us have posted. No pressure here ever at Pace and Cap. Just trying to help each other. Nice ideas and screen shots and congrats to winners every time. We all do what we can, each using our own methods and or ideas. Some people wait till the race is run and offer lessons on what we have done, The lessons are to help us see what could have lead to a winner,and I appreciate that highly. Yet I have never seen you post a New Pace look at a race neither before or after the fact.

JBennet has added great examples of the value of two staples of the Sartin
Methodology Total Energy and VDC

I respect that J believes in what he feels are important to winning
just as you feel NP is important. The difference is we have it in black and white in the follow ups about Total Energy and VDC.When we ask for race examples and testing results for NP the response is small and from what I notice not too good.
But to be fair I don't pay that close attention to NP only because I just can't imagine Howard Satin rating a horses total past performance especially today when poly turf routes sprints bull ring track racinos
4.5 distance sprints are often all interwoven in a 10 race PP
So JBennet is open minded in non support Its your job to educate in an fair open forum the value of your product as a winning tool not a sales item
I did it for years under Doc's watch with Validator and RDSS Ted does races and show examples of RDSS all the time There is no question Teds confidence
in RDSS Why not show us NP in action in real time races After the fact is fine
if your more comfortable
Thanks
Bill V

[gl45]

BJ,
Tampa from 12-28-2011 to yesterday races.
NP contenders at 4-1 or better win only in 243 races.
If $2 bet was made for each NP horse at 4-1 or better, we would have made 613 bets for a total of $1,260.00 and win 54 races (4%) $1,037.50 for a loss of $228.50 with an average of $19.21 per race.

Winners
E1 = 12 ......$172.00 avg....$14.33
E2 = 12 ......$195.50 avg....$16.29
L1 = 11 ......$159.80 avg....$14.53
L2 = 13 ......$319.20 avg....$24.55
Tie= 6 .....$191.00 avg....$31.83

Ex. year to date +$2.40

[gl45]

BJ,
If you are interested here is the crazy race being debated using Bris SR.
The top reads:

E1= #4
E2= #8
L1= #6
L2= #7
gets the winner, Ex. and Tri.

If I drop the Swing horse (#8) down to the Late side then:

E1= #4
E2= #9
L1= #6
L2= #8
gets the winner, Ex., Tri, and super.

I use the High ratings on the Late side. RDSS uses the Low ratings for the Late side as per Dave's rule.

[Dave Schwartz]

I have made some improvements to NewPace. After the pars go out in March I will work on a small (but powerful) update to NP. You guys will find it very worthwhile.

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by gl45

BJ,
Tampa from 12-28-2011 to yesterday races.
NP contenders at 4-1 or better win only in 243 races.
If $2 bet was made for each NP horse at 4-1 or better, we would have made 613 bets for a total of $1,260.00 and win 54 races (4%) $1,037.50 for a loss of $228.50 with an average of $19.21 per race.

Winners
E1 = 12 ......$172.00 avg....$14.33
E2 = 12 ......$195.50 avg....$16.29
L1 = 11 ......$159.80 avg....$14.53
L2 = 13 ......$319.20 avg....$24.55
Tie= 6 .....$191.00 avg....$31.83

Ex. year to date +$2.40

Hi Pino,

Thanks very much for posting this TAM summary. I make the ROI from this to be .823 - pretty typical of what NP does in this odds range (remember Mike's provisional summary of a group of NP 4-1 races was a loss of 10% - basically it loses the take. This isn't bad, but obviously it's not in the black.
(BTW, I think the hit-rate of 54/613 is closer to 9% than 4%, unless I missed something). As Bill Lyster's survey demonstrated, NP's hit-rate begins to evaporate pretty quickly as the odds rise. Again, more evidence of how tough it is to find profitable NP plays, and how grateful we should be to you for putting in the work to find some.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[DocSartinLearner]

Hi Ted,

I check up almost daily the Local Disk (C, then I click Disk Cleanup, I put a check in checkmark boxes to free up 220 MB of disk space on (C. But, nothing worked.
I don't know how to clear my Browser History to delete the Unnecessary Files.

Please help me,

Ernie M.
Maiden

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

hello Dave

I just did a quick search and you have not posted anything in the open area
of pace and cap since mid October yet a soon as a few NP comments show up, so do you.

There have been many races that a few of us have posted. No pressure here ever at Pace and Cap. Just trying to help each other. Nice ideas and screen shots and congrats to winners every time. We all do what we can, each using our own methods and or ideas. Some people wait till the race is run and offer lessons on what we have done, The lessons are to help us see what could have lead to a winner,and I appreciate that highly. Yet I have never seen you post a New Pace look at a race neither before or after the fact.

JBennet has added great examples of the value of two staples of the Sartin
Methodology Total Energy and VDC

I respect that J believes in what he feels are important to winning
just as you feel NP is important. The difference is we have it in black and white in the follow ups about Total Energy and VDC.When we ask for race examples and testing results for NP the response is small and from what I notice not too good.
But to be fair I don't pay that close attention to NP only because I just can't imagine Howard Satin rating a horses total past performance especially today when poly turf routes sprints bull ring track racinos
4.5 distance sprints are often all interwoven in a 10 race PP
So JBennet is open minded in non support Its your job to educate in an fair open forum the value of your product as a winning tool not a sales item
I did it for years under Doc's watch with Validator and RDSS Ted does races and show examples of RDSS all the time There is no question Teds confidence
in RDSS Why not show us NP in action in real time races After the fact is fine
if your more comfortable
Thanks
Bill V

Hi Bill,

Took me a while to realize that my original 'thank you' post here got busted. So I thought I would once again say thank you for the support for me you've expressed here. I also hope P&C players will keep your comments on the Methodology in mind. Good also to have you back from illness.

Cheers,

BJennet