PEN 8th 1.5.13

[cody]

On 1-5-13 8th race tampa the 3 horse and 6 horse give me all sorts of trouble.Do I use the top line for the 3 even though he lost by 10,and doesnt run this way all the time,if I use the 3rd back he drops down on blbl.Now the 6 this horse likes to run on the lead,his last line same class was bad,trainer gives him a little time I chose to leave it out,the 6 won at 27.40,this is not about winning or losing this race,did I make the right decion and leave the 6 out,if I use his 3rd back he,s 3rd on blbl,Ted,Bill,FTL or anyone else.

Thanks
Cody

[Bill V.]

Hi Cody

My thoughts .. Just looking at the 6 horse . Its a NTL Early

Its a E7. It will try for the lead in every race.
Now if you do a positional ESP notation to all
the horses in the race who else is a Early horse ?
I will let you do this step
The comment line for horse 6 last line says
chased faded, Line 1 was just not this 6 horses day
In that match up it used way too much energy
early ( Not its typical pattern).


Here are the last line for every horse in the race
on the segments screen who owns the first fraction?, its horse 6


Here is the chart for the race
Look at the 6, nearly wire to wire
the race comment says slow pace headed
In Saturdays Match up it got the easy lead it needs
The question becomes was the last line a true representation of the horses ability in todays match up
or was line 3 / line 2 is non comparable turf

[For The Lead]

First, a really good explanation Bill.
Second, Cody, you should pay attention to what Bill V. said. It is very worthwhile.

I didn't download TAM for the 5th, so I am just going to address the #6 horse here. Here is the #6 horse as I marked it up.


Notice what I did first. I "blacked out" the lines that are not comparable to today's race. When you look at what's left, there is just no way this horse could be left out. Even if you use the last line, the horse still shows the best first fraction and that is the horses worst race.

Bill suggested you write down the "running style" for each horse in the race to see if there are any other "EARLY" horses. I hope you did this. Between the running line you choose for each "contender" and the visual "running style", these show you a lot of information about the race before you even get to the program and the numbers it provides for you to analyze. It even helps with "how" you should analyze the race. Bill asked you to look for other "EARLY" horses by "running style" for that reason. If you can't find another early horse, then the #6 starts to really stand out for you. Also, you don't have to actually "write down" the running style for your contenders, the program allows you to do this. Look at the #6 in this post. Above the running lines for the horse you will see little silver blocks labeled "F E EP P SP S U" . These stand for....
fighter
early
early presser
Presser
sustained presser
sustained
unknown (no form)
All you have to do is click on the button you feel best describes how the horse normally runs. It's easy!
In the case of the #6 horse, it shows "E".
The other thing to notice is the little number in the block with the "E", it shows a "7". This is the amount of Quirin Speed Points this horse has earned. The higher the number, the earlier the horse generally runs.

Hope all this helps.

[cody]

Thanks Bill and FTL both of you give clear and percise explanations.Now that I have relooked at the race 5 times,the thing that scared me away from the 6 was the 3 horses last line,the segment screen showed if the 3 decieded to go after the 6 it would over take him in the 2nd call,I should have disregared that RS he showed in his last race,it was a typical.

Thanks
Cody