Charlie's Quest's two-turn routes in races similar to today's are +, O and + efforts (Lines 2, 4 and 9). He is a sustained runner, coming off a long layoff. The conservative approach would be to not select a line here, but I want to match up the two + efforts against today's pace to get an idea of what we might expect. To me, they look quite light against the potential TE pace of today's race (161.6 and 163.7). Now, three months later, Rudy throws a $20k tag on his neck. This runner may attract some public support on the drop in company, but I have a hard time seeing this horse in the mix based on my match-up.
Ea is another one coming off an extended break. As a SAR horse for the course, I considered Line 9 as a possibility, but settled on Line 2 from 2/16, as the PoR that day (165.0) is similar to today's, and he didn't do terrible, running a + effort of 163.3. Such effort might not be good enough to beat the favorite in here, but as we will see, the effort is better than most in the race. Again, a conservative player would probably not select a representative line and move on, but I want to give myself a chance to find something. Seemed like a S/P runner.
Given this one's recency, I selected the most recent line, a + race, albeit a muddy track going one-turn at BEL. His other + races (164.3 and 162.8) were against lighter PoR's than today's race, and his TE in his BEL routes somewhat in the neighborhood of today's PoR are light. A sustained style, I pegged as a non-contender.
Off 83 days, the last being a sloppy one-turn BEL route which was as "O" as they come. Rating this one's + efforts around two-turns (Lines 3 and 5), his TE were 161.9, which would fit well against a lighter PoR with his S/P run style. Against 165.0 and 164.3 PoR's, he didn't come close. Non-contender.
07-31-2013, 12:27 PM
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