Router Going to Sprint

[Segwin]

Aug 24 / Parx. Race 4 / 6f dirt.

The 4th race appears to have some good opportunities. The fly in the ointment is the #1. He has run routes the last ten of his races. His trainer has good stats with routes to sprints. His m/l is 4.

How do you handle this?

Thanks.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Segwin

Aug 24 / Parx. Race 4 / 6f dirt.

The 4th race appears to have some good opportunities. The fly in the ointment is the #1. He has run routes the last ten of his races. His trainer has good stats with routes to sprints. His m/l is 4.

How do you handle this?

Thanks.

Here is the horse in question.



The answer is really very simple and I'll let "Doc" answer it in his own words.



So, the horse is a "non contender". It does not get a line.

The great thing about horse racing is this...you always have the option to PASS THE RACE if you are that concerned.

[Segwin]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

The great thing about horse racing is this...you always have the option to PASS THE RACE if you are that concerned.

Quite (which is what I'll do).

[Bill V.]

Thanks Terry for the question

The horse shows 3 wins lifetime
That win in line 4 is a SA25 N1X or N4- L
So its a tough race considering at the time the horse only had 2 wins

Line 3 is a zero race
Line 2 is a + race at the same condition as today CL7.5 N4-L but at 1 mile
Line 1 is a 0 race but at the 8.3 distance an the track is condition was gd

The horse seems to be too slow a starter, to sprint today.
I notice that in all its races it breaks very slowly and settles in that position around the first turn.
I does move up. This horse needs to break faster to change that race 2 line into a win line

I think the race today is tough because I see 3 E/or EP runners
Is this horse capable of being in position to win at the faster early pace it will face today ?

I would look elsewhere for a winner I would not consider this horse a win contender,

[Segwin]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Thanks Terry for the question

The horse shows 3 wins lifetime
That win in line 4 is a SA25 N1X or N4- L
So its a tough race considering at the time the horse only had 2 wins

Line 3 is a zero race
Line 2 is a + race at the same condition as today CL7.5 N4-L but at 1 mile
Line 1 is a 0 race but at the 8.3 distance an the track is condition was gd

The horse seems to be too slow a starter, to sprint today.
I notice that in all its races it breaks very slowly and settles in that position around the first turn.
I does move up. This horse needs to break faster to change that race 2 line into a win line

I think the race today is tough because I see 3 E/or EP runners
Is this horse capable of being in position to win at the faster early pace it will face today ?

I would look elsewhere for a winner I would not consider this horse a win contender,

Thanks Bill. I have to pay better attention to the + 0 as well.

On a side note I did play Central Banker atb in the 11 at Sar today as a fun bet. Just the way he flew down the track after coming back was amazing. He's 20/1 and up against the cream this time so it won't be a cakewalk. 12 clams won't break the bank though.

[Hoof 11]

So, the horse won and paid $13.40.

I agree with FTL and Bill, but there was two things that peaked my interest. The horse ran a sprint early in his career and finished 3rd, not to shabby. The main point that caught my eye was the form cycle, have a look at the Adjusted Speed ratings, do you see a pattern? The horse was in top form today and would put out a peak effort, my only concern was the horse does not break well and the track bias favored "Early" horses, two strikes against the horse.

Sometimes you have to think outside of the box.