Parx 8/25 live

[For The Lead]

Now let’s move on to the winner, #7.
After the race, Dirty Moose said;



And here is his segments screen which show his line selection.



And here is the last line for the #7 horse.



Is this the line he had in the back of his mind that made him think this horse was going to pass them all and win?
Because I Can Jim made a video on this race, where he analyzed the race based on Dirty Moose’s segment screen and said he would have bet the #7.
Again, he using the #7 horse’s last line to make that determination.

I mean, really, does that line encourage you to think the horse is going to pass them all and win??

I think before this race is used a teaching tool, perhaps some line selection education is in order. And I’ll do that in the next post.

[For The Lead]

Ok, let’s talk about line selection for the winner, #7.
Here are the horses PP’s.



I’m going to be as generous as I can and stay within the guidelines set down by the “Doc”.
I have the “Trip Tab” open so we can see the comments.

“Doc” provided us with many examples of “excusable” races. One of them was “a trouble line”.

The comment in line 1 says “eased back”. The effect of easing the horse back was to take it right out of the race. I don’t know about anyone else, but I don’t know the reason for the horse being eased back. So let’s be generous and say that was a trouble line.

Moving to line 2 we see that the distance of the race was 5 furlongs and a “+” line. Many people don’t like to use 5 furlong lines, myself included. Sometimes we are forced into using a 5 furlong line because that is all that is available, however, in this case we can go back one more line to line 3. Line 3 is still a recent race and another “+” line for a 6 furlong race. So let’s use that line instead of the last line, which was a useless “0” line.

Now let’s take a look at some screen shots.
Using the same lines as DM, here is the original screen.
Does anything stand out for you??



How can you evaluate how the#7 horse will run based on this line??

Now let's take a look at the same screen using line 3 for the #7 horse.



Doesn't that look better??

Now let's look at the segments screen.



Does this make more sense to you??
Does this give you more confidence that the #7 horse will pass them all and win??

[kahunab]

It seems to me that Jim Bradshaw always said," If an Early horse can't get the lead, throw him out." What I see in the last screenshot, the segments screen, after all the discussion, are numbers that indicate none of these Early horses can get the lead. By default, the 2,7 and 5 are the horses to look at for the win. I would say using your line choices the 7 is better than the 5. My two win choices would be the 2 and the 7. That is how running style matters. The Doc taught in the Yellow Manual that horse are behavioral and assigning running styles is a very important part of the handicapping protocol. (As an aside, being the owner of two performance horses once they get a routine in their head, they are very insistent on doing the routine the same way over and over again.Race horses are no different. If you change the routine on them you will not get their best performance.) If you throw the Early horses out this is an easy race. It gets more difficult if one or two of the early horses own the zeros in the first two fractions. I just think we don't pay enough attention to how a horses behavior pattern influences his running the race.

[kahunab]

I left out a thought. The segments screenshot would indicate that if one of the Early's did get the lead he would expend so much energy that his 3rd fraction will blow up. (Anyone remember the Rivotous race with Fly a Kite?) So expect an early to get the lead or a speed dual, either way the Early blow up in the process and an EP or a P to win.

[Bill V.]

Thanks Kahunab

You offer a great view of the Parx 8th race and the proper
fundamentals of the match up

Here are my screen shots of the 2 3 and the result charts

[Bill V.]

The only thing that still concerns me is the notion that just because there
are multiple early horses in the race, I disagree that ALL early horses will
fade and the race will be won by a O.T. E.

That was not the case in the 8th race The 3 got the lead it as far as I can
tell from just the result charts The other early horse # 5 broke slow and just trailed the leaders

The 2 being a EP did just that, it sat just behind the 3 but did not fire

[kahunab]

Hi Bill,
For a long time I struggled with E's especially lone E's. If they don't own the first two fractions on the segments screen and an EP or a P does then they will blow up. I have watched that over and over again. I have gotten to the point of just tossing them if they don't own the early fractions on the Segments screen shot. It really does not matter if there are 1,2, or 3 E's, if none of them hold the 0.0 rating in the first two fractions, they won't win. Even if one of them takes the lead, all he does is blow up the rest. If they have a speed dual so much the better. That doesn't say that one of them won't take the lead because they will behaviorally and their optimal energy distribution will be out of wack. So this is a clear case for the need to look for a presser or early presser because the E's cant hold the lead. I must admit that my number one choice (using For The Leads picture) is the 2. But my second choice would have been the 7. (Please excuse the visual language as I am a visual learner and need to see a picture of the race in my head from the data presented and the segments screen works for me to see the race as I think it will develop.)

[Segwin]

Originally Posted by kahunab

Hi Bill,
I have gotten to the point of just tossing them if they don't own the early fractions on the Segments screen shot. It really does not matter if there are 1,2, or 3 E's, if none of them hold the 0.0 rating in the first two fractions, they won't win. Even if one of them takes the lead, all he does is blow up the rest.

Thanks for that info - good to know.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by kahunab

It seems to me that Jim Bradshaw always said," If an Early horse can't get the lead, throw him out." What I see in the last screenshot, the segments screen, after all the discussion, are numbers that indicate none of these Early horses can get the lead. By default, the 2,7 and 5 are the horses to look at for the win. I would say using your line choices the 7 is better than the 5. My two win choices would be the 2 and the 7. That is how running style matters. The Doc taught in the Yellow Manual that horse are behavioral and assigning running styles is a very important part of the handicapping protocol. (As an aside, being the owner of two performance horses once they get a routine in their head, they are very insistent on doing the routine the same way over and over again.Race horses are no different. If you change the routine on them you will not get their best performance.) If you throw the Early horses out this is an easy race. It gets more difficult if one or two of the early horses own the zeros in the first two fractions. I just think we don't pay enough attention to how a horses behavior pattern influences his running the race.

I am not here to argue your point. Rightly or wrongly, I will make the assumption that your personal line selection and contender selection processes are consistent and that is the basis on which you make your case, but here is my point.

When a person opens a race in RDSS there is NOT a “designated 0.0 horse” at the first two calls. The horse that gets the “0.0” at those calls is based on contender selection and line selection, so they could very well be different horses for different people. Let 10 people handicap the same race and it is very possible that you will see many different horses with “0.0” at those calls. Those people may not end up with the same findings you have mentioned here. Obviously they will struggle and not achieve the success you have.

In the very next post, after yours, a member thanks you for the information you offered. Now that person has taken the ball and is off and running. Their problem will be, if their contender selection and line selection is not identical to yours, their results will not be the same as yours, leaving them confused and wondering why.

Consider that many people discard early horses that fade in the stretch, even though that horse or those horses may well be the best early horse(s) in the race. Therefore they don’t get a true look at the early pace scenario and don’t evaluate the possibility of one of those early horses actually being the winner of today’s race because the early pace scenario favors them. Again, I will emphasize what Tom Brohamer said in his book “Modern Pace Handicapping”.
"The trickiest piece of the pace scenario is the analysis of Early Pace. MOST RACES ARE WON ON OR NEAR THE LEAD". A horse designated as ‘EARLY’ WILL FIGURE IN EVERY PACE SCENARIO".

Brohamer didn’t say to only evaluate the early horses that did NOT fade in the stretch! When it comes to early type horses, total energy is NOT the key to their success. A favorable early pace scenario IS!

[kahunab]

Not sure why this is so upsetting to you FTL. I was simply commenting on the "picture" of the race that your line selection presented. I agree that line selection is individual. However, when your line selection presents this picture, I was suggesting how one should play it based upon Doc Sartin and Jim Bradshaw teaching. I could send you multiple examples of this phenomenon. It is a basic principal that has been a part of our methodology for years. If an early horse has to expend more early energy that it needs to expend to maintain it's optimal energy expenditure to win, it will lose. IE. then with your line choices the 4 and the 8 would not win as they did not own any of the first two fractions. The 2 and the 7, by your own line selection then were the next two default choices. I don't know what lines I would select but I know if I get this "picture" of the race, then I would eliminate the two early's who don't own any of the early fraction. They may or may not take the early lead, but if they do they will expend too much early energy and blow up in their third fraction. Why is this notion so offensive to you?