Why On Earth

[Segwin]

Are they still running this gal

[Bill V.]

Hi Terry

Without knowing anything about the connections for her I would take a guess,
that this is a small barn ?. She took forever to find the winner circle
against maiden claimers but earned some money with a few in the money finishes. She finally won at a MC 16 routing.
The rule of thumb is a maiden claimer winner probably finds its winning level at 1/2 the maiden claiming level. That would be about a $8000 claimer.
Now after the maiden win what did the connections do with this
still young filly ? They put it against Stater Optional s probably because they wanted to see what she could do. But not risk losing her.
After figuring out how to win this is a test.
That did not go well. They probably realize she is not much. Then they start
her in the claiming races at $20000. After two tries its clear she is not
anything great so now they finally drop her to the CL $8000 level
which is probably her level if she is not hurt ?

Bill

[Segwin]

Good morning Bill.

The rule of thumb is a maiden claimer winner probably finds its winning level at 1/2 the maiden claiming level.

I never knew that - thanks.

Her past three races are dismal. Looks like she could use a few weeks at the beach with a nice pail of oats and some sun screen.

[DontSayDont]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi Terry

Without knowing anything about the connections for her I would take a guess,
that this is a small barn ?. She took forever to find the winner circle
against maiden claimers but earned some money with a few in the money finishes. She finally won at a MC 16 routing.
The rule of thumb is a maiden claimer winner probably finds its winning level at 1/2 the maiden claiming level. That would be about a $8000 claimer.
Now after the maiden win what did the connections do with this
still young filly ? They put it against Stater Optional s probably because they wanted to see what she could do. But not risk losing her.
After figuring out how to win this is a test.
That did not go well. They probably realize she is not much. Then they start
her in the claiming races at $20000. After two tries its clear she is not
anything great so now they finally drop her to the CL $8000 level
which is probably her level if she is not hurt ?

Bill

Bill, I agree with everything you said here. Noticed that they raised her one class to Md16000 from Md12500 on the day of her Mdn win. Not seeing or knowing much about sire lines, looks like this horse may take to an off track, or liked the stretch out. Her career is, 1 win in 6 tries at this S/D. Not horrible.

Trainer is winning at 17% and in $$ 50% if I recall correctly. Not all that bad.

Now comes my question, how do you get a line to use on a horse like this. We agree that C8000 might just be the level for her to be competitive but she does not have a + or (+) line in her last three.

The 4th race back, her win, was on a sloppy track. Use this as it was a win and today's race is for non-winners of 2 lifetime? Or go back 89 days to her second place finish at Crc? She ran + races at 2 different tracks while routing, so much of the question is, how will she handle Tampa's surface?

I'd like to see how she compares to others in this race, but would probably want a bit of a price. If this is from today's card, I have not downloaded any info. today.

Ray

[DontSayDont]

The pace of 8.0 races seem to be faster than she cares for. At 8.3 and 8.5 she only faced pace of 49.2 - 1:14.5 - 1:47.9(Final Time) in one and 49.3 - 1:15.5 - 1:47.3(Final time) in the other. Bit of an oddity in running almost the same final times at the 2 distances. I think it is normally about 2 to 2.5seconds more for the 8.5f event.

For C8000 n2L at Tampa this year, 8.2 and 8.5 distances the average pace's have been 49.1 - 1:14.8 - 1:44.2(Final Time) for 8.2 furlongs and 50.3.-1:15.4 - 1:47.4(Final Time) at 8.5f (small sample). There have not been any 8.3 furlong races at this class.

From this is doesn't look like the average pace will be a detriment.

Ray

[Bill V.]

Hi Ray

I'm glad I don't bet races like this anymore

Here are my thoughts on horse 1 and the others

Horse 1 No line looking at line 4 I see its a maiden win
I see the off track. Is this line comparable ? Yes if its a dry track but
the horse ran very differently than its other races. The race is atypical
based on Total Energy, TPR and its early /late energy distribution.
In Pace Makes the Race they write about that no matter how bad the last line is it should show something. Line 1 shows a good first fraction but a wild early Early Late energy balance and a 71 epr that is 9
lengths behind the fulcrum. I would not use a line for this horse.

Horse 2 No line. This horse has no comparable plus races in 90 days
Its all turf

Horse 3 off for over 200 days No line

Horse 4 and 5 scratched

Horse 6 Line 1 Its a recent Plus + race Same distance and surface and competition level .

Horse 7 Line 4 I will excuse line wrong distance ( sprint )
Line 2 is terrible but I will excuse it as its first try over the tampa track, Line 3 is excused because of the 1 turn LRL distance

So I only have lines for two horses and horse 7 is a shaky decision

No wonder the 6 wen't off at 3/5 LOL

Bill

[Segwin]

Well #1, Jill's Image finished 4th which is A LOT better than I thought she was going to do.

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Segwin

Well #1, Jill's Image finished 4th which is A LOT better than I thought she was going to do.

Hi Terry



The problem is and this is also in Pace Makes The Race

Finishing 4th in a 5 horse field is not the same as in a full field.

This is why in modeling its important to know the field size as well as the position.

[Segwin]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi Terry



The problem is and this is also in Pace Makes The Race

Finishing 4th in a 5 horse field is not the same as in a full field.

This is why in modeling its important to know the field size as well as the position.

Attachment 36690

Good point Bill.

I had originally thought she'd still be on the track tomorrow morning.

[sureshotlink]

Perhaps Jaime ness can magically turn her for around...