My first RDSS handicapping sessions. Yikes!!

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Hi Bill..

The # 1 thing i can tell you is to "know thy track"

See what factors are winning at the various distances, its a short time but maybe you can see "whats winning" and "whats not"

Find a track or two and learn it

good luck

mike

Here is today's opening card at Woodbine at the 5f distance looking at my RDSS model spreadsheet (free btw)

No maidens and best of last 3 line selection. Heck all the horses are off layoffs so.......

BTW the winner of the last non maiden race (9th) was 15/1 ml and paid $22.00. #1 late and that is what was winning all day looking at the sheet.

Mikesal and Lou S have very valid point - Know thy track

tomorrow could see big change but keeping up to date you can see the change most times before the "crowd" and take advantage.

5/6 races winner is 1/2 LPR
5/6 races winner is 1/2 DCL
5/6 races winner is 1/2 Pace of horse fraction 3(F3)

[lsosa54]

Just another reinforcement for you of "know thy track". Got home a bit early today and 'capped the last few at SA. I mentioned on another post where the SA turf mile has been running early all meet.

Lets look at the 6th today. My contender selection narrowed it down to 3 horses fast enough recently to win today.

3-Changing - been running high 80's on the poly so I'm comfortable going 8 back to the turf mile on this track with a 90 SR.

7-Joshua's Dream - been running 90's on the poly but no turf race to choose from. No reason for me not to give him his last.

8-Rummysecret War - just ran a 93 in a poly sprint so I'm ok going 3 back to the 1 1/8 @ SA on the turf.

Only other horse I considered was the 1-Self Insured. That 95 poly sprint 3 back stood out but that 83 in a turf sprint last out seemingly without trouble knocked him out for me. I won't add what my records show about trainers who run back after claiming from Jeff Mullins - suffice it so say, it's not good.

Since Ive got 2 different turf distances and a poly route and based on the fact that the speed ratings of the pacelines are close, I project all lines to a mile and use the 2 adjust to equaliize total energies.

The winning read out for this dist/surface all meet is the EXDC screen. It shows Rummy nosing out Joshua. The SP screen is clearly Joshua. Notice Rummy's advantage in the EP and MP sections of the EXDC screen.

I also show you the AOdds Contender screen which shows Rummy's advantage fairly clearly. If you own the 1c, 2c and 2f in a turf route at SA with early positioning as well, and you sit on the board @ 10-1 with a 5-1 ML, I'm a happy camper. I made the win bet and did not play the exacta (not sure why).

It was not close at the end. Rummy used his EP and MP advantages to win for fun. Joshua eventually got up to place over Changing. Rummy was a gift at $22.40. The exacta paid $25.60

Hope this was useful and I'm sure RDSS would have similar screens. This is basically how I play a race. You don't hit 'em all but you don't need many at $22.40. I could not do this without the confidence of knowing the SoCal circuit and esp., in this case, that mile turf profile this meet.

[Charlie D]

I think Lou's posts are fantastic because they show me that using the best program ever created can not be beaten

The brain when trained properly is truly amazing ladies and gentlemen and with similar training you can do exactly the same as Lou has done.

[lsosa54]

Charlie: Doc stated many times that "pattern recognition" was essential so the more you do something and the more frustration and heartache you go through over time when you screw it up, the quicker you recognize the successful pattern. Then it takes an emotionally stable approach (don't get too high when you win or too low when you lose) and discipline to make it work.

I screwed up a race the other day which I had absolutely correct on 1st look that cost me a $20+ winner. I got distracted and lost focus by the time I made my bet. After steaming for 10 secs., I let out a loud damn it in an empty room and just moved on, so I didn't screw up the next one.

BTW, the reason we got this "gift" on Rummy was the difference in the public's perception of the trainer/jockey behind Rummy vis a vis Joshua. Had Rummy been trained by Hollendorfer, you would have NOT have seen 11-1. These are the opportunities to take advantage of, like a stock's undervaluation or a baseball player's undervaluation in fantasy baseball, vis a vis their underlying stats. Like Jim G's signature on his posts regarding value.

[mikesal57]

There you go...2 top cappers, Richie and Lou, have gave you some good info on 2 tracks you might have not played ( like me) and I'm sure our lovely Barb will pitch in soon with her favorite track, Woodbine too, with some screen shots .

thxs guys

mike