Race selection

[Mitch44]

I and the others that you allude to that are like me understand quite well. Sartin if alive today would not condone the misleading rules you apply in the guise of being his. Apparently you didn.t read pg. 12 & 13 of the original Yellow Manual. Sartin even back then didn't eliminate 90 day horses and his were guidelines not rules.

Your posts completely misdirect Sartin teachings and the uninformed get sucked into and down a path of destruction believing it somehow is his teaching and words. I agree that your a sophisticated individual that can fool those that lack knowledge or experience with Sartin teachings.
Here's an example of sophisticated manipulation; " Having noticed the nice winning price he asked me if I could find the contenders and make a case for the winner." That is a quote from a Bill Lister on 5 Jun.18 for Parx Tuesday, reference you're so called rules , procedures etc.. If that is not cherry picking to fit a specific narrative than I'm just a lost soul. " I didn't ask Bill to post anything." Houston we have a problem!!

I don't blame Bill Lister as I believe he thought his post would be helpful. I believe him to be a very honest individual that generally cares and likes to help others. Is this going on with others that think their doing good? I do know one thing and that is cherry picking races to fit a specific narrative with "with a nice price . . . " is not conductive to Sartin teachings, or to the betterment of members to learn by following his recommendations such as the best of the last 3 @ a comparable dis. & surface.

There is an easy solution and that is put up some picks and quit Monday morning quarterbacking with ideal situations that fit a specific narrative. Your correct in that we all have losers however for clarification some have a tremendous amount of more losers than others. Giving up 25 % winners going into a race is insane and is not a winning formula.

It can't be stressed enough that your rules etc. have nothing to do with Sartin recommendations and teachings even going back as far as the Yellow Manual which was printed well before 1990.


Mitch44

[Ted Craven]

Although I had temporarily Closed this Thread, removed Mitch's post #31 above and edited FTL's post #29, I have re-opened it and reinstated all original posts: with a few caveats (i.e. WARNINGS!) --

1. While anyone is free to disagree with anyone else (including me), as a Member here at PaceandCap, you are NOT permitted to write disrespectfully about another Member. Who judges 'disrespectfully' -- why, ME! I pay the bills, I stand at the door and greet people who apply, and regretfully (or sometimes not so much) show them the door if that's what's needed to keep this a friendly community.

2. I encourage everyone to re-read the Code of Conduct post, particularly the part about no name-calling or negative energy, and particularly the part about how many warnings you get (one).

Here's an example of what you can't say: 'Your posts completely misdirect Sartin teachings and the uninformed get sucked into and down a path of destruction'. 'I agree that your a sophisticated individual that can fool those that lack knowledge or experience with Sartin teachings.' 'Of course it is impossible for someone with your mindset to understand that.' This is not respectful language, and would not be regardless of who it was addressed to. These also qualify well in the 'negative-energy' department. (See edited footnotes in posts above which mention violations of the 'Terms of Service').

3. Regarding the "For The Lead" Approach to Handicapping - from Brohamer to Sartin and Beyond" (aka For The Lead's Guidelines) - this is NOT represented as Sartin's own guidelines, or 'sacred law', or 'you are advised to do this'. Perhaps it is accepted as such by some, and many have written that they find these Guidelines to be helpful. But, they are Guidelines created by the gentleman posting as For the Lead (FTL), not by Sartin, and they have their own riffs and recommendations based on statistics and his own observations over many years. Sartin didn't write the FTL Guidelines, but he sure influenced their writing, as did others. The credit/blame must finally go to For The Lead.

YOU DON'T HAVE TO FOLLOW THEM! Newcomers should consider reading them for potential Guidance - THEN, work with RDSS software (or whatever else turns you on) and apply them (or not) and devise your own strategy. To my knowledge, NO ONE ever succeeded at ANYTHING by following someone else's dictates without experimenting, researching, failing, succeeding, conducting intellectually and emotionally honest enquiry - making it their own: in this case in handicapping and betting the races, but I believe the foregoing incremental approach applies universally to all human endeavor.

FTL has stated he is not interested in posting races before the fact, rather in conducting teaching exercises à la the Follow Up 'Problem Races' articles, according to his own approach. He has stated this so many times, he doesn't have to state it any more if he doesn't want to. Just look it up. In general at PaceandCap - you CAN post useful information about races you say you worked after the fact if it appears they have genuine value as handicapping examples (and we've been over this issue MANY time before too). You can even brag a little after the fact if you hit a nice one - this is permitted - within reason and we're all happy for you! Too much, and it gets boring though.

4. There have been many Phases of the Sartin Methodology over 30 years. If you don't like any of them, or find them outdated or liable to be confusing or superseded by newer developments - feel free to say so -- BUT you must be respectful (and try to be helpful by offering reasons why other stuff is better). Don't 'trash' someone who uses a particular 'flavour' or Methodology Phase which you disagree with. EVERYONE disagrees or has affinity or antipathy with something or other. If everyone always bashes others who do things differently, in Canada we have an expression for this: 'a circular firing squad'.

If you don't like Phase III or Brohamer Modern Pace Handicapping figs, or TPR figs, or the Fulcrum, or The Matchup - or if you think that Rx figures in RDSS or BRIS ProfitLine or Prime Power, or NewPace or Tote board analysis or 'FTL Guidelines' or 'Rmath Guidelines' are abominations or wastes of time - then simply DON'T USE THEM. EVERY one of the foregoing aspects of what is included in the Big Tent of the Sartin Methodology are thought of as useless by SOMEONE - believe me I have heard it all, privately and publicly. On the other hand, EVERY one of these are also practiced by some to profitable result, some spectacularly so. And believe me, there are other applications of what you can actually find in RDSS that are so strange - and profitable - that I never would have thought of them, nor recommended them, to others. But yet they exist, created by individuals' deep work and experimentation.

5. Re 'FTL Guidelines' specifically: they exist, they are compiled (thanks Bill Lyster), some folks like them, some pay no attention. For myself, I neither use them nor am critical of them though I DO recommend folks try to understand the timeless and functional aspects of them. I personally don't automatically toss horses > 20-1 Morning Line or Laid-off > 90 days: instead I use my analysis skills and also respect statistics while knowing how they can sometimes mislead. (And FWIW, neither do I use The Matchup, TPR, MPH, the Fulcrum or NewPace. For myself, I use mainly what was found in Validator 3/4, knowledge of velocity and deceleration enhanced by factors I put in Rx and particularly guided by tote board moves. That's MY usage of the tools.) If you don't like them, just look away. Perhaps some will recall, as reiterated by FTL in a post above, that he has stepped back from handicapping and betting the past few years and has recently been suffering some serious physical health problems. I believe he is not here for fame and glory, rather only posts because some folks have asked him to. I personally find it ungracious to bash him if he responds to such requests, given the overall context of his current circumstances.

NO ONE here (yet) has been appointed 'Hall Monitor' to prevent anyone else from veering to the 'Dark Side'. I urge Members to refrain from feeling they need to adopt this role.

6. Lastly, please see Point #1. No sniping, no throw-away critical remarks (I have deleted some of those in this Thread), no 'negative energy'. If this Thread continues with any incivility, I will close it again. However, discussion of the pros and cons of any aspects of the Methodology are always welcomed (though consider keeping Threads relevant to their Opening Topic - you can always start a New Thread). It is TRUE that some aspects of what Sartin and friends created over the years are just not as powerful anymore as they were when they were new and not yet mainstream. And, some other aspects are timeless. And if I say so myself, some of the new stuff in RDSS is quite good (and stay tuned).

If anyone feels compelled to respond in a way which you suspect may earn you a 'speeding ticket' -- the simple solution is to say your piece by Private Message to the relevant Member (though no harassment).

That's the way it is. Posting here is a privileged, not a right.

I wish everyone fast horses and great mutuels, much enjoyment of each other's company, and all other blessings.

Ted

[shoeless]

FTL

You have greatly improved my way of handicapping and I am sure
others as well,it is greatly appreciated

Thanks

Shoeless

[Bill V.]

Dear FTL and Mitch

Feel better guys, Thank you for all that you have done to help us here at Pace and Cap. I have taken a few of your well researched teaching guidelines and it has helped me very much.

Best Skills
Bill

[The Pook]

I would like to chime in here saying that after a number of years of trial and error, I am now a successful and profitable practitioner of the Matchup. Probably not as successful as most of the old hands on this board, but well enough for now.

I have learned to do it my way which includes learning things from both FTL and Mitch amongst others, and working them in with The Hats teachings. I have learned from postings after the race and before the race. This site has value for those interested in finding an edge using pace for handicapping.

Be cool guys. You are both assets to this community.

Pook