Major vs. Minor tracks

[Charlie D]

If Exacta are eaier to hit, it should, i think, follow so are Pick bets at these types of tracks.



I suppose it all boils down to how you want to win money and how much risk you want to take.


Maybe we should all be playing HAW.

[Charlie D]

A thought.

As backers of horses, you really need a fair degree of consistency to make any headway, as layers (me sometimes and the bookmakers) the more chaos there may be in a race the better it will be for the layers.


Maybe these chaos races where you get a high odds average, low win/ITM fav % races are not the way to go afterall. Maybe we should be looking elsewhere and finding the tracks that offer consistency with a bit of chaos now and again.

Mmm, something to ponder i think.

[Charlie D]

AQUEDUCT AT A GLANCE

Avg. Winning Odds: 5.14 - 1
Favorite Win%: 35%, Favorite Itm%: 71%

EXOTICS PAYOFF

Exacta/Perfecta: 69.47

PENN NATIONAL AT A GLANCE

Avg. Winning Odds: 6.28 - 1
Favorite Win%: 34%, Favorite Itm%: 67%

EXOTICS PAYOFF
Exacta/Perfecta: 119.57

WOODBINE AT A GLANCE

Avg. Winning Odds: 5.72 - 1
Favorite Win%: 31%, Favorite Itm%: 66%

EXOTICS PAYOFF
Exactor: 102.60

The bookmaker (layer ) would probably prefer to conduct his/her business at Penn and Woodbine rather than say Aqueduct as the former seems to have more chaotic racing.

Bookmakers over here like Cheltenham, Royal Ascot, Goodwood because the racing is competitive and chaotic, in fact, they like it so much, they sponsor a lot of these races.


Food for thought i think.

[Charlie D]

MOUNTAINEER PARK AT A GLANCE

Avg. Winning Odds: 5.07 - 1
Favorite Win%: 38%, Favorite Itm%: 69%

EXOTICS PAYOFF
Exacta/Perfecta: 82.38

Mnr good place to be a backer by looks of it and not so good for the layer. ( pretty consistent with the odd chaos race now and again)


Get to "know thy track" as advised by Doc and you've got somewhere to play all year. While most of the other bettors are probably continuing to lose thier bankrolls playing chaotic racing.


Anyway, rant over.


Good Skill.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

The horse can not read, it does not know how much it is worth
So therefore the man made class designation like NW2L, NW3L are of little use in telling YOU the horses ability and how it will Match Up against others.

If they were any use in telling ME ability, i would USE them, i don't, i use the Dynamics of Incremental Velocity and Energy Exertion and figures derived from overall time.

Good Skill.

That’s real interesting, Charlie.

It’s true, horses can’t read, but somehow or another they seem to ”get it” when they race!

An example would be in the Santa Anita Derby. As Ted pointed out, the #8 horse showed best in the first fraction and second call, but the horse was only 2 for 12 and both wins in its’ PP’s came in those pesky “man made designations” called “claimers”. One was “maiden claiming” and the other in a $40,000 “claimer”. Somehow or another this horse “got it” when he was running in another “man made designation” called “Grade I”. It seems his incremental velocity numbers just didn’t stand up against better horses.

Perhaps when this horse drops back down the latter of those “man made designations” it just might find a field it where it “matches up” better and maybe win another race.

[Charlie D]

If i remember correctly i put up the SA Derby winner

It went something like, if Lookin is not trying to win, Sydneys Candy will win, i think


Preakness (is that a G1?? ) exacta landed with RA and Mine That Bird




Yep, your right thiose Velocity numbers don't stand up in Grade 1's

[Charlie D]

they stand up in Grade 2 as well


Illinois Derby - Exacta landed.

you just have to find the TRUE contenders because garbage in, means garbage out.

[For The Lead]

Velocity numbers of horses that are equal to the "man made designation" they are entered in will hold up.

It's when they are over their head in the "man made designation" that they fail.

[Charlie D]

No, it's when they don't fit into the Match Up they fail., but if you want to believe it's because of the race title, thats ok.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

No, it's when they don't fit into the Match Up they fail., but if you want to believe it's because of the race title, thats ok.

Just answer my original scenario regarding the Santa Anita Derby and the #8 horse.

Did it have the velocity numbers or not?

Did it run to those numbers or not?

It was obvious from Ted's post that the horse had the velocity numbers to compete, yet the horse was nowhere to be found at the first fraction or the second call, where it showed to be the best of the field.

Yes, I contend that the reason is the horse was not of the same class as the horses it was running against, having only beat "claimers".

What is your take as to why the horse was not able to compete? Surely you can't say the horse didn't "match up", the velocity numbers prove otherwise.