BEL 05-09-09 (All Races) 2 Methods Approach - Pace and Cap

partsnut · 05-09-2009, 12:10 PM

BEL 05-09-09 (All Races) 2 Methods Approach

I am fooling around with a 2 method approach that caused me to make 2 picks in a majority of these races.
If one of the double picks scratch I will go with the other.
Belmont has been scratch city as of late with a lot of the fields reduced to 4 & 5 horses.

All opinions welcomed in any of these races.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Race - 1
Strummer
Trophy Road

Race - 2
Four Star General
Marly My Way

Race - 3
January Gent

Race - 4
Inside Zone
Prince Of Iron

Race - 5
Personal Shopper

Race - 6
Pass

Race - 7
Pax
Cabaret Cowboy

Race - 8
Mandate
Townies Dream

Race - 9
Hello Broadway

Race - 10
Burnished Copper
Gamblin Fever

clore1030 · 05-09-2009, 01:55 PM

I'm being real conservative until the rainy weather ends - I don't like playing off tracks since my models are based on fast tracks.

But I will take a shot with the 4 in the third at Belmont. It has a nice EPR advantage and decent odds.

NICE - $20.40 win price.

tfm · 05-09-2009, 02:02 PM

R 3

Flat Bold (#3)

win and exacta with Proud Ruler (#1)

partsnut · 05-09-2009, 05:04 PM

clore1030

Quote:

I'm being real conservative until the rainy weather ends - I don't like playing off tracks since my models are based on fast tracks.

But I will take a shot with the 4 in the third at Belmont. It has a nice EPR advantage and decent odds.

NICE - $20.40 win price.

Nice job, very impressive. Keep it up.

partsnut · 05-09-2009, 05:11 PM

At the end of the first 8 races, taking into account the scratches, I'm down $65.00 on mythical $10.00 bets.

Hopefully the last 2 races will bail me out. It seems everyone is looking for a bail-out these days.

clore1030 · 05-09-2009, 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by partsnut

clore1030

Nice job, very impressive. Keep it up.

Thanks - it was my only bet of the day. I've been looking for horses in sprints with a minimum 2 point EPR advantage and 5/1 odds. I've found four of them in the last 8 days and cashed on two of them. The other one was a $25.20 winner.

It's also been raining on and off for the last 8 days here in NYC, so it has forced me to apply discipline. It still means spending the time handicapping, some days I've come up with nothing.

mikesal57 · 05-10-2009, 04:36 PM

nice going Charles...those are good spot plays!!

clore1030 · 05-10-2009, 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikesal57

nice going Charles...those are good spot plays!!

Thanks Mike.

I had another in the fourth at Belmont today. It was a mile-and-a-sixteenth race, but the winner was on top in BL by three points and was first in EPR, but only by a point.

At 6/1, I figured it was worth it. I've yet to make another bet today. I may play the 8 in the tenth race at BEL - it has a two point EPR advantage and speed is holding up nicely today.

The ML odds are 15/1. But I don't do well with horses less than 20K, so I'm not sure yet if I'll go for it.

mikesal57 · 05-10-2009, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clore1030

Thanks Mike.

I had another in the fourth at Belmont today. It was a mile-and-a-sixteenth race, but the winner was on top in BL by three points and was first in EPR, but only by a point.

At 6/1, I figured it was worth it. I've yet to make another bet today. I may play the 8 in the tenth race at BEL - it has a two point EPR advantage and speed is holding up nicely today.

The ML odds are 15/1. But I don't do well with horses less than 20K, so I'm not sure yet if I'll go for it.

Great ...its working for you and that what counts..I've been holding back at Bel even though I love it there, but with all the rain, off turf, and the small fields has turned me off for a while...But

I'LL BE BACK

mike

clore1030 · 05-10-2009, 05:13 PM

In the last eight racing days, I've made five bets, scoring on three. I'm not greedy, except when it comes to odds.

As I said earlier, it still requires that I do all the work - except for this past Wednesday when I didn't even download the card since I knew the track would be like soup.

05-09-2009, 01:55 PM	#2
clore1030 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,678	I'm being real conservative until the rainy weather ends - I don't like playing off tracks since my models are based on fast tracks. But I will take a shot with the 4 in the third at Belmont. It has a nice EPR advantage and decent odds. NICE - $20.40 win price. Last edited by clore1030; 05-09-2009 at 02:09 PM.

05-10-2009, 04:36 PM	#7
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	nice going Charles...those are good spot plays!! __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

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05-09-2009, 12:10 PM	#1
partsnut BetMix User Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,433	BEL 05-09-09 (All Races) 2 Methods Approach BEL 05-09-09 (All Races) 2 Methods Approach I am fooling around with a 2 method approach that caused me to make 2 picks in a majority of these races. If one of the double picks scratch I will go with the other. Belmont has been scratch city as of late with a lot of the fields reduced to 4 & 5 horses. All opinions welcomed in any of these races. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Race - 1 Strummer Trophy Road Race - 2 Four Star General Marly My Way Race - 3 January Gent Race - 4 Inside Zone Prince Of Iron Race - 5 Personal Shopper Race - 6 Pass Race - 7 Pax Cabaret Cowboy Race - 8 Mandate Townies Dream Race - 9 Hello Broadway Race - 10 Burnished Copper Gamblin Fever

05-09-2009, 02:02 PM	#3
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	R 3 Flat Bold (#3) win and exacta with Proud Ruler (#1)

05-09-2009, 05:11 PM	#5
partsnut BetMix User Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,433	At the end of the first 8 races, taking into account the scratches, I'm down $65.00 on mythical $10.00 bets. Hopefully the last 2 races will bail me out. It seems everyone is looking for a bail-out these days.

05-10-2009, 05:13 PM	#10
clore1030 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,678	In the last eight racing days, I've made five bets, scoring on three. I'm not greedy, except when it comes to odds. As I said earlier, it still requires that I do all the work - except for this past Wednesday when I didn't even download the card since I knew the track would be like soup.