Public Choices or Otherwise - 85% ????

[partsnut]

In horse racing, the top three public choices win in the neighborhood of 67%

1 - The favorite wins about one third of all races.
So if you are playing to beat the favorite, which in my opinion is the correct way to play, then you should disallow that one third from the public choices.

This leaves you with with 43 - 44%, which is a negative from the Gitgo.
If you bet 2 horses you need above 60% to show a profit.
If you bet on one horse from the public selections you can figure on
22% winners at best.
The odds generally look something like this for the top 3 public choices.

1 - 8/5
2 - 2-1
3 - 3-1

Let's assume you can achieve all your winners at 3-1 or $8.00
Your 22% hit ratio is 1 winner out of every 4.40
Which would give you a Negative ROI.

We know that the public tends to bet torwards the morning line.
We also know that year after year the national handicappers have a prediction rate of approximately 29% year after year and that they are also at a negative ROI.

Forget about the pubic choices.

Even if you were at 85% winners using the public choices. You can only pick one to win. if you played 2 you would be at 58% which would show a negative ROI. If you played 1 - you would be in the same catagory as the national handicappers. If your choices are independant of the public and can you achieve 85% winners, you can give up your day job. Honestly, I doubt that it can be done unless you can prove me to be wrong.

However, The best I've seen is 80% out of the top 5 Energy horse.

[tompkins]

there is not enough money to be made unless you go into exotics, period

[Fast4522]

There are days all my gimmicks go down the tubes and the only thing that keeps me in the black are my win bets. On other days I nail everything, Win, Tri, Super, but for some reason I do not play pick 3's. To live within your own skin and get out relatively unscathed. For the most part what works for me it to be a fly on the wall and pounce when I know I am right. And as we all know we are not always right. So gimicks only is not the way to go either, its a mixture that is born between our ears.

[Binder]

Originally Posted by partsnut

Forget about the pubic choices.

Even if you were at 85% winners using the public choices. You can only pick one to win. if you played 2 you would be at 58% which would show a negative ROI. If you played 1 - you would be in the same catagory as the national handicappers. If your choices are independant of the public and can you achieve 85% winners, you can give up your day job. Honestly, I doubt that it can be done unless you can prove me to be wrong.

However, The best I've seen is 80% out of the top 5 Energy horse.

Hi Partsnut I hope this makes sense
All the figures you use in your example ,
Doesn't this apply only if you bet every race on every card ?
If we follow Doc's instructions and bet two horses, Either bet 50 - 50
and look for value from wagercapping or bet 60 /40 or 70/30 and go for a bigger
win percent, we will have a edge
If we avoid maiden races with more than 1 FTS or races with horses with no NA lines we will do better If we practice and learn from the power of the programs oddsline which races to pass we will do better

I tried once to offer my picks from Philly to the public, and I did poorly
I had to pick every race and scratches and changes in track condition
had me chasing . The methodology is about making YOU money

[socantra]

By Jove, Binder. I think you've got it. As in baseball, the key is to hit em where they ain't. We are under no obligation to play every race. If we pass the FTS races and others where we have no information, and also pass those races where our choices agree strongly with the public, we have just made those nice neat percentages that Partsnut cites meaningless.

I usually play two horses and rarely play exotics. It seems to work for me, I have also known winners who bet on only one horse and winners who play nothing but exotics. It doesn't suit me, but It would be silly for me to claim that it can't be done. I have yet to see a winner who plays every race on the card.

Dick...

[gl45]

Again, I agrre with Dick and Bill. I used to play 5-6 races in a card. God only knows how fast I did change that tune. Now I only play 1-2 races in a card.
DISCIPLINE.
GL45

[cprescigno]

If I can manage two races from a card I am doing pretty well. At best I might go for three. If I don't like anythng at all about the pacelines I PASS.
I just posted up the 11th race at Tampa Bay today BL/BL and Summary Screens and I think I'll bet that one. The 6 horse is looking pretty good going off ML 15/1.
I am getting a lot more choosey about the races I bet and it has been working for me. Anything at all marginal I PASS. There is always another race or another race card, or another race day.
My attitude is if I don't hit my race on Tuesday, I'm going to hit it on Wednesday so I don't press just to make a bet.

Charlie