Problem Race - CD 9th - 6/22/13

[Jeebs]

Conditions: 1M Turf n1x 3up F&M

SCR: 5, 13, 14, 15, 16

1 - SCHOOL MASCOT - + line 5/23 @ 1 1/8 Turf - Preferred Style: Closer/Unknown

2 - GLEANING - 2nd L/O. My issue is, was that last turf line a (+), having made up 3 1/2 lengths from 2nd to Str call? Or, would we consider it a ( ) line? - Preferred Style: Closer/Unknown

3 - PAVLA - 1st off 52-day L/O, (+) turf lines on 5/1 and 4/6. Won maiden 11/1/12 over track/distance. Preferred Style: Presser

4 - FEMME FATALE - 3rd L/O, + Pressing win 6/2 over track/distance while adding blinkers. Preferred Style: Presser

6 - DYNARAMA - ( ) lines last 2 (5/25 at CD, 4/25 in G3 at KEE). + finish 4/6 at 1 1/8 KEE Turf. (+) Mdn line tandem w/#3 11/1/12. Preferred: S/P

7 - FAERIE QUEENE - 2nd L/O, + closing effort over track/distance 6/8. + maiden win pressing 3/20 at GP. Preferred Style: Presser

8 - KITTEN'S QUEEN - 2nd L/O, + effort on 5/27 BEL Inner in G2, S/P + at KEE turf 4/7. + Sustained Maiden win 11/18/12 over surf/dist. Pref: S/P

9 - BELLE CHAUSSEE - 1st 6+ mth L/O. Lone win at 7F over KEE Poly. No Paceline Selection. Preferred Style: Closer

10 - OCEAN BERTIE - (+) sustained effort 5/25 over track at 1 1/16 and + Early effort at 1 1/8 on 5/1. Sust. mdn win on FG dirt. Pref: Closer

11 - SUMMER BREEZE - 1st time turf, stretchout. Sustained Mdn win 2/14 at OP. No paceline selection.

12 - I'M YOUR LUV - + effort going 1 3/8. (+) efforts 2nd/3rd back, prefer 5/1 tandem effort. Closer

Projected Pace - No "true" early runners. I had problems with projecting the pace here. Perhaps Pavla would gain the lead by default, or even Femme Fatale, who was on top of pedestrian fractions in that winning effort. Even Faerie Queene shows pressing efforts of interest. I projected (with little confidence) fractions of 48.2/1:12.2/1:37.0.

Pacelines:
1 - Line 1
2 - Either Line 1 (if you consider the race as (+) effort), or NL (N/C)
3 - Line 1, though there is a tandem (Line 3) with the 6.
4 - Line 1
6 - Either Line 8 (Respectable tandem line matching today's race) or NL (No recent form)
7 - Line 3
8 - Line 2
9 - NL (N/C)
10 - Line 1
11 - NL (N/C)
12 - Line 2

With no "true" Early here, the race was a likely set up for horses that could run late. I'll admit, when I ran this race last night, I threw out the #2, dismissing as a ( ) race, with no recent turf form to support a selection. As we now know, the horse made a sustained run to win at a fat $40.20 mutuel. When I plug the #2's recent line in, giving credit as (+) race, this zero becomes a hero. Take a peek at the BL/BL here. The 1-2-4 finishers in the race were ranked 2-4-3 on the BL/BL. I would understand if #2 is simply a horse that we toss without prejudice and if he jumps out and bites us, so be it. My question is, would it have been 1) a mistake for me to rate the line as a (+)? Or 2) would it have been a mistake for me to hastily rate the last line as ( )?