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Old 11-10-2007, 03:26 PM   #1
RichieP
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,019
Top Horse is "best" - Myth??

Shoe's thread got me interested in some stuff easily checkable by referencing records. First off thank you big bro for making us THINK.

Ok is the best or top ranked horse the way to go? The following is this week's numbers using computer paying NO attention to anything but numbers. No class,trainer,layoffs etc.

This is 1000% mechanical folks from contenders to line selection. See if there is something you can take from it.

I bet 59 races using the Matchup and raw pp's in addition to these races. They are NOT included in this mix.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
66 races worked:

#1 ranked Bl/bl horse won 17 races at payoffs of:
6.20
14.10
5.40
5.60
4.80
8.80
7.80
6.40
5.40
8.00
9.20
8.20
7.60
10.70
4.80
4.80
14.40

#2 ranked Bl/bl horse won 15 races at payoffs of:
22.60
32.20
6.60
9.10
15.30
9.80
9.80
57.40
4.60
8.00
20.00
11.60
6.60
32.60
17.40

#3 ranked Bl/bl horse won 11 races at payoffs of:
16.80
6.20
21.40
7.20
5.80
4.00
10.40
5.60
11.80
6.40
41.20

Now to the early/late performance. Same 66 race dataset.

#1 ranked Epr horse won 14 races at payoffs of:
5.80
16.80
22.60
9.10
9.80
5.40
5.40
9.80
7.80
9.20
7.60
4.00
14.40
3.20

#1 ranked Lpr horse won 18 races at payoffs of:
6.60
14.10
6.20
5.60
4.80
57.40
10.00
7.60
10.70
16.10
5.80
4.80
4.80
32.60
5.60
11.80
27.20
41.20

These races are all surfaces and include maiden races. So while the#1 ranked Bl/bl horse outperformed other 2 tiers of Bl/bl is it really "best" to be on the top horse?

Food for thought I hope.
Richie
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