Anaylize This - Page 15 - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 05-04-2006, 07:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rxlawyer

To Anyone Interested in Longshots:

Last Thursday (above this post) I showed how I had a 70-1 shot as a real contender in the 2nd at EVD. The horse ran second. All of the payoffs were very nice. I would like to show those who are interested that it was not a "fluke" situation. Here is another, almost identical, situation. Take a look at the 1st at LS tonight, 5/3/06. The #4 is in a very similar situation. Showed some early speed in first lifetime start. Took a significant layoff. Came back at a higher class and showed very little. Tonight was the night to try and see what the horse could do. Went off at 65-1. Led for a long time and finished third. Paid 13.20 to show and the tri paid 741.40 with the odds on favorite running second. I think this type of pattern is VERY interesting.

Gary

I'm interested! Thanx Gary
Richie

shoeless · 05-04-2006, 04:23 PM

Gary,It seems you agree with Richie and Bill having the 3 &4 in there.Thanks to all three of you for taking the time to do that.Your input on this is GREATLY APPRECIATED.Im working on one for tomorrow at CT in the 4th race,I will post later.Jeff

shoeless · 05-04-2006, 05:59 PM

Hi Guys,I know this is far from being the derby but I needed your input here.I was waiting for Poppy's Courage to come back from when he ran last Sunday.Well the trainer is bring him back 5 days later which is usually a good sign.It looks to me that he will be up against it here as it looks to be heated up front.Uniso is coming up big late but hasnt raced in 6 weeks with no works and the trainer if you go by such things is 0% after a 31 or more day layoff.I would like to get your opinion on this race and maybe you could rerun it on Spec.I used Syn 4 because I think it adjusts shippers better.I did leave out the 9-5 favorite who hasnt raced since July.Jeff

shoeless · 05-04-2006, 06:00 PM

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shoeless · 05-04-2006, 06:00 PM

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shoeless · 05-04-2006, 09:37 PM

I couldnt believe that ex payoff for the 5-4 of $44.I ended up keying the 4 in ex's with the 5&7 I really couldnt see anybody else in the race.They bet down the 1 to 8-5 and he's still running.The crowd loves the dropdowns at CT and that's the time to take advantage IF YOU CAN.Jeff

shoeless · 05-04-2006, 09:41 PM

I guess we all hit that one way or another,Gary you had it in order way to go.Jeff

shoeless · 05-04-2006, 11:18 PM

Managed to hit a saver ex of 8-7 ,I had it down to the right 3 but had them in reverse order. Jeff

Rxlawyer · 05-05-2006, 12:12 AM

Jeff:

Great going in the 10th. You had it down to three contenders and they ran 1,2,4. That is excellent in that miserable race. I looked at your numbers and they were pretty close. Manor just tired more than you might expect. Gary

shoeless · 05-05-2006, 06:03 AM

Gary,Thanks I did expect Manor to stay around longer.I just didnt want to enter those horses that ran good races against state breds so it really narrowed the field down quite a bit.Jeff

05-04-2006, 05:59 PM	#143
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,649	Hi Guys,I know this is far from being the derby but I needed your input here.I was waiting for Poppy's Courage to come back from when he ran last Sunday.Well the trainer is bring him back 5 days later which is usually a good sign.It looks to me that he will be up against it here as it looks to be heated up front.Uniso is coming up big late but hasnt raced in 6 weeks with no works and the trainer if you go by such things is 0% after a 31 or more day layoff.I would like to get your opinion on this race and maybe you could rerun it on Spec.I used Syn 4 because I think it adjusts shippers better.I did leave out the 9-5 favorite who hasnt raced since July.Jeff Attached Images

05-04-2006, 06:00 PM	#144
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,649	next screen Attached Images

05-04-2006, 06:00 PM	#145
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,649	last one Attached Images

05-04-2006, 04:23 PM	#142
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,649	Gary,It seems you agree with Richie and Bill having the 3 &4 in there.Thanks to all three of you for taking the time to do that.Your input on this is GREATLY APPRECIATED.Im working on one for tomorrow at CT in the 4th race,I will post later.Jeff

05-04-2006, 09:37 PM	#146
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,649	I couldnt believe that ex payoff for the 5-4 of $44.I ended up keying the 4 in ex's with the 5&7 I really couldnt see anybody else in the race.They bet down the 1 to 8-5 and he's still running.The crowd loves the dropdowns at CT and that's the time to take advantage IF YOU CAN.Jeff

05-04-2006, 09:41 PM	#147
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,649	I guess we all hit that one way or another,Gary you had it in order way to go.Jeff

05-04-2006, 11:18 PM	#148
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,649	Managed to hit a saver ex of 8-7 ,I had it down to the right 3 but had them in reverse order. Jeff

05-05-2006, 12:12 AM	#149
Rxlawyer Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 212	Jeff: Great going in the 10th. You had it down to three contenders and they ran 1,2,4. That is excellent in that miserable race. I looked at your numbers and they were pretty close. Manor just tired more than you might expect. Gary

05-05-2006, 06:03 AM	#150
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,649	Gary,Thanks I did expect Manor to stay around longer.I just didnt want to enter those horses that ran good races against state breds so it really narrowed the field down quite a bit.Jeff