In need - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

Latekick · 05-10-2015, 01:49 PM

Can someone explain to me how and why this horse won this race
The winner was the #1 horse
How did he win this?

Bill V. · 05-10-2015, 03:35 PM

I would love to look at the race but since its 3 days ago the pace lines are no longer available for download. I can't

Doc writes in the follow up about when 4th ranked or tiered horses win
It could be one or more of the better rated horses are an illusion,
So ,without any thing else to go by ?
I hope somebody else can help.

Bill

DocSartinLearner · 05-10-2015, 07:01 PM

Latekick, in my brief opinion, not analyzing much this 7 yr old gelding, #1 Bob's Gone Wild:
1. one of the horses with great speed
2. one of the top horses in this field with GOOD PACE
3. this horse was in Excellent Form
4. question about the last race at Mnr - muddy - 1 mile and,
now ran the distance at 1-1/16 Mile still had plenty Speed for
this race.
5. Previous races ran at TP on Synthetic track.

But, like Bill V. says hope somebody else can help with more data.
We need the good skills for this on how to handicap better.

DSL

Latekick · 05-10-2015, 08:41 PM

We re 10 days into may and im already $370 down. I just cant win guys, and i honestly do not know what im doing wrong or how ti improve it. Im furstrated and just at a mental fallout right now. Im reading the follow ups, and doing everything that i fee is correct, but just look, im $370 down in 10 days and i do not know what is going so wrong.

Latekick · 05-10-2015, 08:42 PM

already down $170 on win bets only

winning · 05-10-2015, 11:15 PM

Are you keeping a track model and track profile of tracks you play? I recommend reading Tom Brohamer's Modern Pace Handicapping. Don't bet exotics until you know what wins, place and show at what track you play. I notice on your pace line selected, you selected a 9.5 furlong pace line for 8.5 furlongs. Choose pace line from 9.0, 8.5, 8 furlongs for distance of 8.5 furlongs. At CD I see you pick an off track pace line for number 1, and you pick a poly track for horse # 2. Handicap one track only like Santa Anita and keep a track profile and track model, best of last 3 pace lines similar distance. Don't mix distance, and if you have to, I would pass the race. Make sure all horses have 3 pace lines that you can choose from. Practice on paper first before making real bets, good luck.

Latekick · 05-11-2015, 12:09 AM

Not as of now but i will be starting a model for Pimlico this week. My problem comes when i have the model i have trouble deciding which horses to bet based on my model.

That was a rare case that i chose an off track line, i never use off track lines.
i feel like i just have lots of minor problems and it is costing me

Lt1 · 05-11-2015, 09:52 AM

Latekick may I suggest you stop betting exotics until you improve your win %. It's folly to keep wagering on them until such time that you are confident that your win % is such as to warrant wading in to the exotic pools. If you don't have the winner you have no chance to cash an exotic.
Tim

gandalf380 · 05-11-2015, 10:54 AM

From what i see of your win records--you may need to be more selective in your betting. Looks like your wins are chalky.

The Pook · 05-11-2015, 11:25 AM

Latekick,

Stop Betting! I feel your pain because I have been there. Whatever method you use to play you have to thoroughly practice with honestly on paper for months. When and if you start to go positive in a decent way with your ROI then bet. Start win only. Then move-on.

When playing along with you on May 7th at Belmont from what you were typing in reaction to results, you were very honest, but it betrayed big swings in emotion. At one point after a small win you mentioned that "this is easy". After a close loss for a big price on a race where you still had the winner with your other horse, you were "devastated". Everybody gets excited about big scores but you need to learn to lose. Because you lose most of the time and you can't become unhinged. You sound unhinged.

Some learn this game in months. For some it takes years and decades. Most never do it profitably. It takes a lot of practice man and it can take a while to find a method that works for you. Isn't it one of your favourite posters here For The Lead who has the byline "If it was easy everybody would do it"

I ditto all the above advice also. At your admittedly early stages you shouldn't be betting into the Pick 3 pools.

Im my ever humble opinion,
Pook

05-10-2015, 01:49 PM	#11
Latekick Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 389	Can someone explain to me how and why this horse won this race The winner was the #1 horse How did he win this? Attached Images

05-10-2015, 03:35 PM	#12
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	without I would love to look at the race but since its 3 days ago the pace lines are no longer available for download. I can't Doc writes in the follow up about when 4th ranked or tiered horses win It could be one or more of the better rated horses are an illusion, So ,without any thing else to go by ? I hope somebody else can help. Bill

05-10-2015, 07:01 PM	#13
DocSartinLearner Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 207	#1 Bob's Gone Wild really! Latekick, in my brief opinion, not analyzing much this 7 yr old gelding, #1 Bob's Gone Wild: 1. one of the horses with great speed 2. one of the top horses in this field with GOOD PACE 3. this horse was in Excellent Form 4. question about the last race at Mnr - muddy - 1 mile and, now ran the distance at 1-1/16 Mile still had plenty Speed for this race. 5. Previous races ran at TP on Synthetic track. But, like Bill V. says hope somebody else can help with more data. We need the good skills for this on how to handicap better. DSL

05-10-2015, 08:41 PM	#14
Latekick Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 389	We re 10 days into may and im already $370 down. I just cant win guys, and i honestly do not know what im doing wrong or how ti improve it. Im furstrated and just at a mental fallout right now. Im reading the follow ups, and doing everything that i fee is correct, but just look, im $370 down in 10 days and i do not know what is going so wrong. Attached Images

05-10-2015, 08:42 PM	#15
Latekick Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 389	already down $170 on win bets only Attached Images

05-10-2015, 11:15 PM	#16
winning Grade 2 Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 80	Are you keeping a track model and track profile of tracks you play? I recommend reading Tom Brohamer's Modern Pace Handicapping. Don't bet exotics until you know what wins, place and show at what track you play. I notice on your pace line selected, you selected a 9.5 furlong pace line for 8.5 furlongs. Choose pace line from 9.0, 8.5, 8 furlongs for distance of 8.5 furlongs. At CD I see you pick an off track pace line for number 1, and you pick a poly track for horse # 2. Handicap one track only like Santa Anita and keep a track profile and track model, best of last 3 pace lines similar distance. Don't mix distance, and if you have to, I would pass the race. Make sure all horses have 3 pace lines that you can choose from. Practice on paper first before making real bets, good luck.

05-11-2015, 12:09 AM	#17
Latekick Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 389	Not as of now but i will be starting a model for Pimlico this week. My problem comes when i have the model i have trouble deciding which horses to bet based on my model. That was a rare case that i chose an off track line, i never use off track lines. i feel like i just have lots of minor problems and it is costing me

05-11-2015, 09:52 AM	#18
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,276	Latekick may I suggest you stop betting exotics until you improve your win %. It's folly to keep wagering on them until such time that you are confident that your win % is such as to warrant wading in to the exotic pools. If you don't have the winner you have no chance to cash an exotic. Tim

05-11-2015, 10:54 AM	#19
gandalf380 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: central islip ny Posts: 1,130	From what i see of your win records--you may need to be more selective in your betting. Looks like your wins are chalky. __________________ Check out my daily picks for Saratoga in the Saratoga Special http://www.thisishorseracing.com

05-11-2015, 11:25 AM	#20
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,573	Latekick, Stop Betting! I feel your pain because I have been there. Whatever method you use to play you have to thoroughly practice with honestly on paper for months. When and if you start to go positive in a decent way with your ROI then bet. Start win only. Then move-on. When playing along with you on May 7th at Belmont from what you were typing in reaction to results, you were very honest, but it betrayed big swings in emotion. At one point after a small win you mentioned that "this is easy". After a close loss for a big price on a race where you still had the winner with your other horse, you were "devastated". Everybody gets excited about big scores but you need to learn to lose. Because you lose most of the time and you can't become unhinged. You sound unhinged. Some learn this game in months. For some it takes years and decades. Most never do it profitably. It takes a lot of practice man and it can take a while to find a method that works for you. Isn't it one of your favourite posters here For The Lead who has the byline "If it was easy everybody would do it" I ditto all the above advice also. At your admittedly early stages you shouldn't be betting into the Pick 3 pools. Im my ever humble opinion, Pook