?

[shoeless]

Bill

Good post

[shoeless]

I really don't see how you can excuse the 2 horse last 2 races and take a pace line from over 400 days ago

The horse lost it's last 2 races by a total of 46 lengths and running today the same distance, class and surface

By playing these types of horses yes you will have big payoffs but how much will your bankroll suffer until then

[Bill V.]

Here you go Jeff

The manual

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4844

[Bill V.]

Yes Jeff
Line 1 and 2 are just awful . But 69 days in todays racing is not that long.
Like Mark says racing is a bit different today. So I would extend Doc's best
line guidelines to about 90 days

The thing that I like is the workout 5 days before the race.
I don't have the card but I would like to run the numbers using line 3
an see how the horse ranks against the others

[shoeless]

Thanks Bill

I do have to correct myself as the horses last race is 8.5

I see what your saying about going 3 back but still cant see a reason to excuse the last 2

[Mitch44]

Just looking at what charts were posted here I would say the 2, 4,6, & 8 were all viable contenders in this race based only with what was shown. If Mark had this 2 as both a contender and a bet he deserves the recognition for a good Hcp. job. Others should have had it as a contender. I would have used line #3 or L 6 but don't have enough information here to make a final decision etc. I. e. did the horse have trouble in the last two lines to justify going back to L6? Don't know but even L 3 puts in in the hunt or a contender against this field.

The reason the "Hat" went back and viewed all lines was he looked at all lines to get a feel or average for the horse in question. He didn't care if a horse ran a very fast 1Fr as it may have been on a very fast track such as SA or a very slow 1st Fr such as perhaps from Calder. Ditto for the 2nd Fr & or SC.

What he was looking for was what did the horse normally do in these Fr's and he got that from looking from all its races and 1st Fr etc. Note he could adjust those abnormal Fr's by the track record and bring back to what the horse normally would do. Those that only look at the last line or two are going to miss many of winners. When doing this the "Hat " wasn't picking pace lines per say. He was picking contenders and knowing what their regular was could match them up. He wasn't picking lines 10 back etc. It was based on what the horse normally does vs. what he must do today against the contenders. He also was only a one horse better.

I will disagree with Mark on one thing and that is that Bradshaw's methods and techniques do lend themselves to computerization. He worked in concert with the "Doc" and the match up is included in the RDSS readouts today. Those that rely strictly on the last race and only carry the match-up to the SC essentially are only speed handicappers. If that were the case than S, SP & EP would never get up. Another fallacy is just because a horse is in the lead at the 2nd call doesn't mean he can't be caught. Even in a mile race where 80% of the race is over. It really depends how fast the leader decelerates vs. how fast the others accelerate.

Mitch44

[delayjf]

I don't know this trainer, but here is one possible explanation and it involves and old Ray Taulbot angle. Basically, the training will drop the horse in class and run him up the track to throw off the betting public. Then go for the win in the race following the class drop.

You will notice the poor race 2 races back. In his next start, the connections drop the horse in class. The betting public has a tendency to play horses dropping in class and that exactly what happened here, even through he got beat by 20 lengths, his odds dropped fro 13 to 12 to 1. However, after the class drop and getting beat again by 26 lengths, the public gives up of the horse in today's race. That 's when the trainer pulls the string.

[Mark]

Many years ago, I heard some commentary about female horses. The gist of these remarks is that the female is much more apt to leave it all out on the track. As a result their recovery is prolonged. This was made in relation to some of the OUTSTANDING female turf runners of the time. In those cases, because the purses provide large earnings, they can afford to let a female take 6 to 8 weeks between races.
I don't believe that there is a conspiracy between trainers and jocks. Too easy to end up with adverse testimony before the Stewards. What I think happens is that the trainer will tell a jock, "Let her runaway from the gate", or "Don't push him out of the gate". Sometimes jock switches take place that will accomplish the same thing.
At small tracks with small barns they don't want to incur the expense of an exercise rider for workouts. So they will enter a race or two just to keep the horse fit. In this race, I was not bothered by the lack of effort by this 8 year old mare. I would have been bothered if she had made a serious effort in either of them as that would indicate that something is wrong. If you would have taken the 3rd line back on this mare and left all the other horses off their last line and looked at the Segment Screen you would see that this race put her right in the midst of the contention at or near the top of Finished Beaten lengths. If on the other hand that effort had put her nowhere near being competitive you could discount her. As I have written here on numerous occasions, minor league racing is a different world than the major tracks. You have guys that are struggling for survival. They don't want to spend 3 to 6 months getting a horse ready and when they win get $6.00 through the window. A $100 or $200 bet on this horse would have paid a great many expenses forward as well as paying off debt incurred. This is an extreme case however.
On a more straight forward level, this horse has won 7% of her races, so what is a fair bet, 8 -10/1. You were getting 50+/1 and a couple of bucks from your discretionary bankroll would have set up your week or month.

[Bill V.]

Hello Mark

Thank you for your efforts, I only have had a very limited part ownership in a
horse , well my share was so small in the partnership ( I think I owned his left back 2 teeth )

Anyway I know some time horses just don't feel well .
I replied the following in a private message ....

I was wondering what you think?


Hi XXXX

I think the 2 horse had some kind of issue that might not be physical

Look at the conditions of the win in the win race at the bottom

It was a N3-L . The step from N3 to N4 is big at cheap tracks.

After it won the N3 class it failed badly against N4. They tried different distances. then took a break

Then they cam back 69 days ago and ran a "even" race nothing great but nothing terrible.
It never gained nor lost lengths against the pace of race and earned a very good 67 speed rating, for this group anyway .

Then they tried N4 life again and something is wrong.
It ran a terrible race, then again they tried to increase the distance but again
the horse rebelled.
BUT is there a injury ?

Now look at the workouts
A bullet 5 furlong work, 5 days ago. It alss shows more than a furlong per day
workout pattern. To me they belive in the horses physical ability and had it fit and ready to win.
This is why I can see going back past two bad races.
Doc writes about this in the follow up He says , like you, normally two bad races is a negative but under the right circumstances he will go to the good line 3

[Mark]

Bill,
I watch a lot of SF Giant games on my computer living here in Hemet. The announcers are very knowledgable as both are former Major league veterans. Kiuper played I think 15 years and Krukow, won 20 games one year for the Giants. He talks about umpires and gives a profile on today's homeplate umpire. He often describes an umpire as "looking for strikes" That usually means a good day for the pitchers as they get a little width on the plate.
I fall into that category. I look for reasons to consider a horse.
When I look at the #2 horse, it seems to me that it is a classic case of mismanagement. They ran this horse all over the place, at different class levels, surfaces, distances. And then the substantial layoff. I am different than most posters here in that I believe a good long time at the farm is GOOD. The horse gets to be a horse again and frolic around the paddock and associate with other horses. Mentally they get right! So this mare comes back off the layoff and runs her best race in forever. They fixed whatever problem she had. And then they jog her around the track about every 20 days and give her a hot work, And just as important if you compare that 3rd line with against the other horses' last line, she comes up very strong.
I didn't see this race or bet it but I am in complete agreement with Richie. At 50/1 you just can't ignore this horse. She fits the variegation. She has a competitive race in the last 3 off a 223 day layoff.
I have always forged my own path in my life. I listen and read and if it works that becomes part of my tool bag. If it doesn't, NEXT!