Live Zoom Tutorial/Discussion - 5/22/2025

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by Lt1

Hey Bill here is another factor that most people either don't know or use and that is that at every track on any surface and dist there is a minimum 3rd fraction that the horse needs to be able to run in order to win. As the HAT use to preach was that the race doesn't end at the 2nd call. Granted that most of my contenders will meet it but you will find races where some don't and I use it to downgrade those horses.
Tim

Good point Tim.
So I went back to the Model and asked for data that would tell me what the F3 values were for 6-6.5-7-8 at BAQ/AQU. Now these values are for all races at BAQ, no further breakdown and the values shown won 90% of the races.

The minimum/maximum F3 values for 90% of the winners:
6 furlongs: 48.3/55.7 fps
6.5 furlongs: 48.9/54.6
7.0 furlongs: 51.6/54.4
8.0 furlongs: 48.4/55.8

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Good point Tim.
So I went back to the Model and asked for data that would tell me what the F3 values were for 6-6.5-7-8 at BAQ/AQU. Now these values are for all races at BAQ, no further breakdown and the values shown won 90% of the races.

The minimum/maximum F3 values for 90% of the winners:
6 furlongs: 48.3/55.7 fps
6.5 furlongs: 48.9/54.6
7.0 furlongs: 51.6/54.4
8.0 furlongs: 48.4/55.8

The minimum F3 values for 95% of the winners:
6 furlongs: 48.0
6.5 furlongs: 48.3
7.0 furlongs: 51.2
8.0 furlongs: 46.4

[dadams6357]

Originally Posted by Lt1

Hey Bill here is another factor that most people either don't know or use and that is that at every track on any surface and dist there is a minimum 3rd fraction that the horse needs to be able to run in order to win. As the HAT use to preach was that the race doesn't end at the 2nd call. Granted that most of my contenders will meet it but you will find races where some don't and I use it to downgrade those horses.
Tim

Tim
When you speak of 3rd fraction are you speaking of the ranking of the 3rd
fraction or actually the values?
Does that fraction change per distance or class?
Thanks for info.
Don

[Lt1]

Hi Bill. Those 3fs are pretty much in line with what have. Here re mine
Dirt Sprints
5.5 48.2
6.0 49.0
6.5 48.3
7.0 49.5
Dirt Routes
8.0 48.5
8.3 48.0
8.5 48.8
9.0 48.9
10.0 51.0
12.0 51.3
Also I checked out the Bris pps to see what the % of wtw were So far about 30% of sprints have been won wtw & about 35% of rts. That doesn't look like it would be that much out of line with other tracks.
Tim

[shoeless]

Bill and LT1 are using perceptor for this ?

Jeff

[Lt1]

No Jeff. This # is from the line you uses for the horse and can be found in the POH screen.
Tim

[shoeless]

Thanks Tm

Jeff

[Lt1]

Hi Don Sorry I didn't see your post before. The 3rd fraction is that of the winner of the race. I do it by dist and not by class. The number listed is the minimum needed to win regardless of class. Hope that answers your question .
Tim

[rdhughbank]

Bill,
I bought an Excel for dummies book. I believe it will help me understand.
Bob

[MJS6916]

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...32&postcount=6

In the image here, (in the link above) the runners are sorted by the ES% column.

From my scans of the New Pace screen, my guess is that the
probabilities of which horse(s) are most likely to grab/contest the early lead (1st call)
aren't calculated solely based on the "early speed points";
and that the adjusted numbers seen in the Velocity POH screen are involved.

Am I correct? or wrong about this?

More questions:

Are the individual runners' "early speed points" calculated by RDSS?, and how?
Is it about the runner's competitive lines?,
or just based on early position and beaten lengths?;
and is the "RS & early speed points" designation limited to recency (or a set number of lines back in the PPs)?

I thought I did read that RDSS does an average of the runner's
early position & lengths behind; but I don't know how many lines back
RDSS goes.

I'm aware of how William Quirin used to add up the "early speed points";
and how Dave Schwartz did it about 6 years ago.
------------------------------------------------------------------

Next to the #7's 34 in the 62% Accum. column looks like a 56.
What does that mean?

The #1 is the swing horse? OK.
It sounds like he's neither Early nor Late.

Finally, the "POR: 86" at the bottom of the 62% Accum. list.
Not sure how to use that, or if it's meaningful at all.

Thanks in advance,
Mike