The Process

[atlasaxis]

Originally Posted by AwesomeAgain

Thank you Tom, and those are fair questions. I am not presenting this as some magical black box or fully automated solution. To me, NewPace is primarily a framework for understanding projected race stress, survivability, and how energy distribution interacts with pace structure.

I actually set out to learn and understand NewPace about 3 years ago because I wanted to improve as a win bettor. The deeper I got into it, the more I realized it was forcing me to think less about labels and more about how races actually unfold under pressure.

I do think some parts are objective and repeatable. POR, EPR, velocity rankings, V/DC, deceleration, and energy distribution are measurable. Where interpretation enters is in understanding how those components interact inside a specific race shape. Two users may not always arrive at the same conclusion, but I would argue the same has always been true with the Match Up and Sartin concepts in general.

As far as profitability, I absolutely agree that race filtering and value matter just as much as analysis itself. A horse can fit the projected shape perfectly and still be an underlay. Personally, I have found the approach strongest in races where pressure and race interaction are likely to matter most rather than soft, straightforward races dominated by raw ability alone.

I also agree with your larger point that many ideas can explain races after the fact. The real challenge is consistency, discipline, and identifying situations where the public is misunderstanding the pace structure. That is really what I am trying to explore and improve upon, not claim that I have solved the game.

Brian

Brian,

I appreciate the response. It’s nice to hear somebody discuss this stuff without acting like they completely solved the game.

I think there’s definitely truth in what you’re saying about race pressure and survivability. Some races fall apart underneath even when they don’t look chaotic on the surface, and the public misses that all the time.

For me, the real challenge is taking good concepts and turning them into actual playable betting situations. That’s where race selection, value, and discipline become everything. A race can be analyzed perfectly and still not be a good bet.

That’s why I keep coming back to simpler questions. Where is the public wrong? Which favorite is vulnerable? Who gets loose? Who gets cooked by the pace? That’s usually where the opportunities are.

Keep up the great work bro!

Tom

[AwesomeAgain]

Thank you, and absolutely, feel free to print and laminate it if it helps.

Honestly, that is one of the biggest reasons I made it. I found that when I stayed disciplined and focused on the projected pressure environment and survivability of the race, my reads became much more consistent. Like you said, it is very easy to drift off the rails and start chasing appearances instead of structure.

Putting the concepts into a visual framework has helped keep me grounded and thinking through the race in a more organized way. Glad you found value in it.

[Mitch44]

First of all I'm not a believer in New Pace at all and don't believe it supersedes Bradshaw's Match-Up.
Now you made a few key points here were this chart is important: 1. few consider the race as a whole as to the difficulties of it etc. and counter that problem. 2. what the chart does is give you a longtail path to follow there fore your not prone to missing key data. One should wrote dawn on a paper the steps to follow for their Hcp. to prevent missing key information. Once its burned into your brain housing group you can throw it away as it will always be there.

I always use the Match-Up when I Hcp. I just use it in a different way most on RDSS use, it is an essential to good HCP.

Everyone chasing this New Pace is on a fool's journey as it doesn't supersede The Matchup and never will. However everyone is entitled to their opinion, and me mine.
Your approach Brian will pay dividends down the road do to your hard work and desire.

Best of Luck,
Mitch

[AwesomeAgain]

Thank you Mitch, and honestly I do not disagree with a lot of what you said. I have never viewed NewPace as something that “supersedes” Bradshaw or the Match Up. Jim’s work on race interaction, pressure, and survivability is foundational and deserves enormous respect.

What NewPace has done for me personally is help organize and visualize certain aspects of projected race stress and energy distribution in a way that improved my discipline as a win bettor. One of the biggest things I have learned over the last few years is exactly what you mentioned: having a structured process helps prevent missing important information or drifting off into random interpretations.

At the end of the day, I think we are all trying to answer the same core question from different angles: how is this race likely to unfold and which horse is best equipped to survive it. I appreciate the thoughtful feedback and the encouragement.

[stormbringer]

AWESOME !! AWESOME That is alot of hard work to do I'm in the process of getting it all to print. You would make a great teacher (now we would have 2 here) Thanks for this I'm sure I will have some question hope that will not be to much trouble for you. again GREAT WORK!!

[AwesomeAgain]

Honestly, a big part of this was me trying to organize and simplify concepts that took me years to start understanding myself.

And no trouble at all. I am still learning too, but if the chart helps spark discussion, questions, or gets people thinking about race structure and pace pressure a little differently, then it was worth the effort.

I have found that once you start thinking in terms of survivability, energy distribution, and how the race is likely to unfold under pressure, things start becoming much clearer and more consistent over time. Glad you enjoyed it and I appreciate the kind words.

[DELMARGRANT]

thanks for posting

[shoeless]

Brian

I found it ,

Jeff

[DELMARGRANT]

Well put Brian, good stuff here.