Excessive Analysis

[socantra]

Originally Posted by shoeless

I have to disagee jockeys can slow the pace down so there will be some gas in the tank left at the end.There was a jock who rode the Philly,NJ and MD circuit named Rick Wilson.This guy was a master at controlling the race with early speed types matchup or not,it was like he had a clock in his head.Nobody is saying to worry about it but it does happen.

What did he do when another early horse passrd him? Reset his clock.

Dick

[shoeless]

Dick,HAHAHA He also had trouble when they moved the time back or up an hour.

[xtb]

What's to stop a jockey from wearing a gps speedometer? I just looked at some and they can be worn like a wristwatch and show the current speed. Seems that if a jockey could just concentrate on keeping his horse at an optimal speed (if possible), he wouldn't have to worry about what the other horses are doing.

[socantra]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Dick,HAHAHA He also had trouble when they moved the time back or up an hour.

I don't mean to demean Rick Wilson in any way. Obviously a fine jock. Still #24 in lifetime wins, with almost 5000. He also was in the money better than 50% of the time. The only jockeys I can find who dominated their circuits as strongly are Pat Day and Russell Baze.

Still, he lost 80% of his races and that's much better than most. I have no doubt that a talented jock can make a difference and possibly even be the deciding factor under certain circumstances, but he still has to have the horse under him and in most situations exercises very limited control over the race.

Dick

[socantra]

Originally Posted by xtb

What's to stop a jockey from wearing a gps speedometer? I just looked at some and they can be worn like a wristwatch and show the current speed. Seems that if a jockey could just concentrate on keeping his horse at an optimal speed (if possible), he wouldn't have to worry about what the other horses are doing.

Just what is the optimal speed of a horse race and exactly where is the knob on the horse where you set it?

[chris]

Lucky, unlucky, smart jockey, fair pace, false pace, who knows before the running of the race. And how do you handle the stumble factor?

The only question of concern is Did you cash a ticket?

My analysis waltzed around the numbers and was based upon a characterization of the Preakness. It was a war, or would "cage match" be more to your taste; there would be casualties and there were. I made this judgement right after Curlin outnodded Street sense for the Black-eyed Susans - and then I trusted and acted on that judgement.

Preparing for the Belmon was one of those few occasions where I had an opinion before I saw the past performances. I knew what I was looking for;
something different, something fresh, something with an up-side, the filly of course. Ran her numbers through the perceptor in RDSS, hid Curlin, and we know who came out on top. All I was looking for was confirmation and I got it.

If only it was always this clear!

Regards,
Chris

[xtb]

Originally Posted by socantra

Just what is the optimal speed of a horse race and exactly where is the knob on the horse where you set it?

I don't think I have to say that if you go too fast or slow early, your final time will suffer. Many people think that jockeys have the ability to slow a horse during a race, to varying degrees. I would think that with a little trial and error, with a particular horse, at a given distance, an optimal speed (or range) through each fraction could be determined that would produce a horse's fastest final time (over a series of races or workouts). I do realize there are many other factors that will affect a horse's performance but when the subject came up about jockeys controlling the horses' speed, it made me think how I would try to do it instead of guessing about whether I was going too fast or not.

Anyway, I was just wondering out loud, that's all.