How do I interpret this

[froggy]

Bill,
I don't think CBL has much to do with it.
I am not sure but CBL is more Straight Line.
V/DC is not Straight Line.
In your example the rankings and little horses got the finish on the race down pretty good.

By the way in my previous post where I said:

Now this I am not certain about, but #3 had a lower total energy than #4 and probably ran a slightly more even race from his pace line, but the slightly higher energy of the #4 probably made him stronger.

I have figured out this statment is not true.

Froggy

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by admin

RDSS show those same VDC numbers BUT the little horses
are showing me that because of the CBL the 7 is not really tied with the 9 but slightly better

The #7 is slightly better than the #9 based on the V/DC formula, which has nothing to do with CBL, but the 7 and 9 are V/DC ranked equal 3rd due to the #7 being 3rd ranked BL/BL. The ranking shown for V/DC (whether on the BLBL screen or the Val4 Match Up Graph) is the better of the actual V/DC formula ranking or the BL/BL ranking.

Ted

[Turbulator]

Now you guys have got me confused. So I'm going to ask all of the questions that have had me scratching my head and get them out of the way.

In Froggy's post #7 where does the #6 fit into the picture? The order of finish for that Del Mar race was 3,2,4 but BL/BL has them ranked 3,6,2,4, so I don't quite get that.

Other things I don't understand are the Val/4 and Spec160 readouts. I see those two options on RDSS, but I have no idea what they mean. I've tried using both, but I don't see any difference. I thought RDSS was RDSS. Are there two different readouts? I just keep mine in Spec160 mode.

Then there is, BL/BL and V/DC. Which is used as far as Sartin handicapping goes.? I've always looked at BL/BL order, now everyone is talking about V/DC (I THINK that has something to do with deceleration.) Looking at V/DC I also see lots of ties, so how do you separate? Odds? Ranking? Corollaries? Also, when there are ties, the line scores might be different, so why exactly are they tied?

And while I'm at it what about tiers? BL/BL has say five horses ranked, but some handicappers take the 2nd and 3rd tier, or the 1st and 3rd tier. Why not take them from the top down? Does it have to do with odds? For you multiple horse (and single horse) win betters how do you decide which two to bet?

This should get me up to speed.

Thanks

[admin]

Wow turbulator
this is a lot to go over ..
Lets take it in pieces
First off the Rdss and validator speculator or any Sartin
program is going to rank or tier horses based on one thing
paceline and contender selection
Any other combonation of pace lines and contender selections will change the readouts
the programs do not have any automatic rankings

The reason that the 6 is shown on the readouts (froggys)
but didn't finish in the top 4 is not the programs choice

I have to get going If you can I suggest you read followups
from like #70 up to #88
You will get a better idea about BLBL
About # 75 Doc introduces Vaidator and the V/DC readout
All this time he is also teaching wagercapping
That is to get away from top 2 itis and focus on the third and forth ranked horses that pay much better. The VDC readout is a very strong readout
that does pull contenders closer together Therefor you get many ties
This is by Doc's choice so that a horse thats 15/1 tier 3 is tied with a 2/1
horse Maybe now the clients will put something on the 15/1
I hope I got you some answers

Bill

[Turbulator]

Thanks, Bill. That helped. I've read a lot of the followups, but it's been a while.

Mainly I was just curious so I could follow along better when you guys are discussing races that aren't MatchUp related.

So does the primary line score match the BL/BL? It appears to be linear.

Another thing I noticed is that primary line score and BL/BL almost exactly mirror the speed rating rankings. The higher the primary line score--BL/BL the higher the speed rating. It might not be 100%, but from my observations it's pretty close.

In the following screen shot, from top to bottom, the speed ratings match the primary line score, which matches BL/BL, which matches the V/DC except for the last two which are tied for fourth.

Am I close on this?

Thanks again, appreciate it.

[froggy]

Steve,
SPEC160 is I believe linear.
V/DC readings are a horses acceleration and deceleration combined.
RDSS/VAL4 is the best of both worlds.
Those speed ratings are you are looking at are generated by the program and are not the ones available to the general public and at times are quite different.
The two modes usually produce nearly the same rankings and read outs.
Of the two modes in my opinion Val4 gets more overall winners and to bet against the top two V/DC is gerneraly bad news.
My problem comes when there is three #1 and two #2.
Then when you go look at the little horses on the "Segments" panel and they are bunched together, the actual race finish a lot of times ends up with a blanket finish.
I don't have to bet if I'm not certain of the outcome.

Below you will find two very different readings of the same race.
At present you must completly close the program after you change the configuration and restart it in the new mode.

The first is RDSS/SPEC160

[froggy]

Rdss/val4
Notice the speed rating changes.

[froggy]

The results.
The nine and ten were my selections in this race because the four had never run a competitive route before.

[Turbulator]

Originally Posted by froggy

The results.
The nine and ten were my selections in this race because the four had never run a competitive route before.

So the readouts are subject to interpretation? You don't just take them at face value?

Let me ask you this: if you didn't rely on the readout, then why did you give the 4 horse a pace line in the first place? (Just asking, not criticizing.)

I imagine pace line selection makes all the difference as well. One person's readouts could vary wildly from someone else's, or is everyone supposed to have the same basic readouts? Has pace line selection been standardized by the "best off last three comparable" instruction?

[froggy]

Steve,
Contrary to what other people are able to do, I must confess that after all of these years I still can't do the "matchup" very well.
To overcome that weakness I enter at least one or two pace lines for every horse in every race. (I have found many false favorites this way.)
Then eliminate all extra pace lines that aren't up to snuff.
Then eliminate all horses with poor line scores.
Then look at the corollaries of the top two and ask "can they do the distance".

Here is an example. The #8 is the top horse but this is a 9F on the turf and is weak in TT and horrible in HID. Yet this horse looks good otherwise on paper.