Black Magic

[Charlie D]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Richie,Thanks to you and Bill for the compliment.I was talking to Pino yesterday about the same thing how I can get the winner in the top 3 to 4 most of the time.My only problem is being able to seperate the contenders and getting the winner.Jeff

Seperate em using an Oddsline Jeff


A couple of handy little Oddsline calculators here that may be of help

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...dds+calculator

[shoeless]

Charlie,Thanks very much.Jeff

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by shoeless

My only problem is being able to separate the contenders and getting the winner.Jeff

In Calibration Handicapping the 2nd of the 3 concepts Jim covers is "Valuation" which explains how to make your own odds line based on the horses past performances. It is devilish in it's simplistic EFFECTIVENESS.

Here is an example from yesterday and of course it is going to be a winning one for me. I TOTALLY believe the Hat's RADICAL thinking that one does NOT focus on regressing and looking back on lost races. We regress and FOCUS on WINNING experiences. OK

These screenshots show the pp's of the winning $30.00 horse I had both with real money and in the contest to hit a nice $139.00 exacta and the "other horse" that made up my final 2 contenders.

I had the race down to the 2b and the 9 for the win O.T.E. There was absolutely NOBODY else to even consider win lose or draw. I had trouble saying quickly that 1 was gonna beat the other.

Previously that was a tell tale sign to PASS the race.It is NOT anymore and Jim Lehane's book and coverage of "Valuation" is the reason why. I am NOT gonna give away the step on an open post. Wouldn't be right out of respect to Jim L but if you apply that chapter and the SIMPLE way he does things you will NO doubt after seeing live odds at 2 mtp be on the 2b with bells on.

So instead of "being right" and picking one of the 2 final contenders in a race where I really couldn't separate them I became "efficient" and used some valid tools at my disposal. Jim Lehane's Valuation tool is in my bag to STAY.

Jeff my strongest feedback to you would be to read and re read and then read some more the Valuation chapter and begin practicing and applying it to your final few contenders. You won't need any software after that big bro. All the guesswork is removed. Now just wait for odds and bet your spot play value horses according to YOUR line.

[shoeless]

Richie,Thanks very much for the advice and I will do what you suggested.Jeff

By the way nice hit on that horse and I do miss those ka-ching e mails.

[shoeless]

Richie,I just read it again and you were right.Jeff