Beaten by a Nose, 85% of the time, Why? - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

tfm · 06-26-2009, 08:42 PM

Ummm

There's no way to 'quantify' the nose beat. It's a bob. Some you win, some you lose. Losing photos and running 2nd is part of the game. It's a part of the LOSING part of the game. If you pick a horse and it runs 2nd, whether by a photo or otherwise (bad ride, blocked, etc.), it's still just another loss. Here's a revelation: you can pick the RIGHT horse and yet lose the race. That's why this game is the toughest around.

Trying to account for 2nds or photo beats is like the baseball player trying to get on top of why his hard hit balls are caught. It's just a part of the game. And, just as the best players seem to hit more or these missiles that get caught than the mediocre players, the better the handicapper, the more horses that run 2nd. I consider days when I have a high number of 2nds (and photo beats) good ones because this indicates that I'm picking the right horses. AND, for every photo I lose, I know I'll get one back --- as long as I persist in the game.

I'd take a chill pill, learn the game a bit more (give it a bit more than ONE year

) and stop thinking that the game owes you a living. This game is BRUTAL. Last thing this game is going to do is allow someone new to it to pull out a living.

This from someone who's taken some brutal beats this week; and just about every week, for that matter.

Vinnie · 06-26-2009, 09:51 PM

tfm:

Absolutely loved your post. It really resonated with me as I read it just a bit ago. As painful as it is when you suffer those "nose hair" type beats occasionally, you are right on the money when you said that is how you can tell that your handicapping is on the button. For a veritable plethora of reasons the horse that you chose to wager upon (who may have been the best in the field on that day) "Loses" the race. I love the P3's and Pic 4's so naturally to accompany this type of exotic wager you have to be some one that can also tolerate getting crushed (Beat) at times. It is horrible to see three races pan out just the way that you envisioned they would only to get beat in a nail biter in the fourth race. It is part of the game and one that the player needs to be able to shrug off or condition themselves to handle without a blink if they are going to be successful over the long haul playing these types of wagers. It is all about your mindset. You can hit three out of four in two Pic 4's and you have won nothing although you have won 6 of those 8 races and if you would have structured your wagers proportionately you would in all likelihood be winning if you were playing strictly to win. Similar to what tfm said, while this game can be crushing at the very same time the rewards can be great! Just one simple instance I can remember from this last year, and there are a million other examples. I was playing a incredibly cheap P6 ticket at AQ about one year ago for $8.00. I had a 2x2x1x1x1x1. The first four races thankfully went right along as I had pictured. On the fifth race, a turf affair at 1 1/16th of a mile my #1 horse Swift Winds was preparing to launch his bid entering the stretch from about 2 to 3 wide but he encountered a wall of horses in front of him that made him stop his forward progression offstriding him temporarily and thus losing the momentum necessary to propel him to a possible victory that day. He eventually got outside the wall of horses by going around and he rushed up for a very close second getting beat by a neck. The sixth race also went as I had envisioned and I fortunately hit a 5 out of 6 for $88 bucks when "IF" that darned #1 hadn't had a bad trip running in to all of that traffic when entering the lane I would have won about 17k. I am just a very ordinary handicapper at best, and I am sure that the many excellent handicappers on this fine board probably have a million more stories than I do.

The bottom line is, don't ever make a wager where you don't have some sort of value or what you perceive to be value in the race and "never let anything affect or get in the way of cultivating your very own winning attitude." Don't dwell on a super tough beat. The quicker that you can get yourself over it and move on to the next race with a fresh start or approach the better off you will be.

For me it is the quest of perfection even if it is short lived or something that occurs in mere moments that makes me love this game so very much.

I wish you the Best in your pursuits and wagercapping going forward pktruckdriver.

Warm Regards,

Vinnie

mikesal57 · 06-27-2009, 06:48 AM

Hi Pat..

my take on this is that I bet win/place bets on horses 8-1 and over..

Me too so many 2nd's..then i started to add the favorites in exactas ...and then they wouldnt hit either...so I just bet to win/place...

It was killing me to see my longshot come in and pay $10 for place , now I have a better chance of making a little money even in 2nd

mike

Houndog · 06-27-2009, 11:04 AM

Patrick, losing photos is something all of us can relate to. I had a streak at Gulfstream several years ago where I was on the wrong side of a photo something like 6 or 7 times in a row.

I was such as yourself questioning whether I was focusing on the wrong horses and whether I should change the way I was handicapping. I would caution you to be careful about doing this as we all can look back at a race and find a reason why a certain horse beat us. Unfortunately we have to make these decisions before a race which in itself is a chaotic event subject to many interpretations.

Those close photos as TFM said have a way of evening out in the long run. Hang in there and don't get discouraged.

alydar_ David · 06-27-2009, 11:16 AM

Patrick, I assure you...you are not alone.

Here's a post I wrote in 1999. A friend of mine from Palo Alto was lamenting an incredible backgammon loss to our online group of players. The post below was written in response to that. Most of the people in that group know nothing about horses. Ergo, the explanations.

Clint,

Enjoyed your post immensely.

I used to drive my BMW motorcycle past Bay Meadows every day (usually in the rain) on the way to my old school, San Francisco State University. At the time I wasn't involved with the ponies and never went in, just cruised on by.

Horse stories are like backgammon horror tales. Everybody has them. I have the dubious distinction of having one of the most mortifying ones. The bet was the "Pick 6" (pick the winner of six consecutive races: races three thru eight) at Saratoga. There was a huge carryover-no one had won the bet for two days, so most of the money was tacked on to the day's pool.

I was at Yonkers Raceway watching and betting via satellite transmission. I had a longshot right off the bat. It was a cheap Maiden Claiming race and the winner paid $96.00 for every $2.00 bet on her to win. That narrowed down the Pick 6 competition considerably.

I won the fourth race, then the fifth, sixth and seventh.

At this point I was so nervous, I thought it might be a good time to take up Heroin or something.

The last race was on the grass. The name of my horse was Known Ranger, an accomplished turf specialist. During the race he was nowhere to be seen. At the top of the stretch the front runners collapsed and two horses came charging from the back of the back. One of them was Known Ranger. They took turns exchanging leads by a nose. It was a ding dong battle all the way to the wire and I was afraid my heart would explode. At the wire it was too close too call. It was a photo finish. I had to leave the table and pace around the track awaiting the results. The results were in. Known Ranger was......second.

Someone else won the pick six. There was only one winner.

The winning ticket paid $780,000.

Ted Craven · 06-27-2009, 11:34 AM

Patrick,

The sting of losing by a nose can be mitigated somewhat by betting on 2 horses, where the odds permit. 2 horse betting is one of the classic pillars of the Sartin Methodology. You have to wait sometimes to get net odds which match your hit rate. Doc suggested that the lowest odds of a 2 horse entry for him was 5/2 (so minimum net odds of 1.25 - 1 or so in a 2 horse scenario). I would up that to 4-1 lowest, but the actual formula depends on your hit rate and average mutuel.

Are you saying BOTH your horses were beat by a 3rd horse (one of them by a nose). Or are you betting one horse?

This relates to my post above, soliciting details. Generalities can be inspiring, but racing success comes as a succession of fine-grained decisions. My mum once complained to me that she was getting a lot of winners in the 4th and 5th tiers of the BL screen in RDSS, and of course, not betting those and thus losing. Turns out her screen was too small and she was selecting the pacelines above or below the line she actually meant to select a lot of the time! She got the accuracy bit figured out and now is much happier!

It wasn't some weird phase at 4 or 5 tracks - it was logistical. But analysing the details solved the problem. Can you share more details?

Ted

Tim Y · 06-27-2009, 11:48 AM

Mitchell gave out a software along with one of his pace evaluation packages that, through random number generation, suggested that runs of 7 to 10 losses in a row are PART OF THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE GAME.

RichieP · 06-27-2009, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alydar_David

Patrick, I assure you...you are not alone.

Here's a post I wrote in 1999. A friend of mine from Palo Alto was lamenting an incredible backgammon loss to our online group of players. The post below was written in response to that. Most of the people in that group know nothing about horses. Ergo, the explanations.

Clint,

Enjoyed your post immensely.

I used to drive my BMW motorcycle past Bay Meadows every day (usually in the rain) on the way to my old school, San Francisco State University. At the time I wasn't involved with the ponies and never went in, just cruised on by.

Horse stories are like backgammon horror tales. Everybody has them. I have the dubious distinction of having one of the most mortifying ones. The bet was the "Pick 6" (pick the winner of six consecutive races: races three thru eight) at Saratoga. There was a huge carryover-no one had won the bet for two days, so most of the money was tacked on to the day's pool.

I was at Yonkers Raceway watching and betting via satellite transmission. I had a longshot right off the bat. It was a cheap Maiden Claiming race and the winner paid $96.00 for every $2.00 bet on her to win. That narrowed down the Pick 6 competition considerably.

I won the fourth race, then the fifth, sixth and seventh.

At this point I was so nervous, I thought it might be a good time to take up Heroin or something.

The last race was on the grass. The name of my horse was Known Ranger, an accomplished turf specialist. During the race he was nowhere to be seen. At the top of the stretch the front runners collapsed and two horses came charging from the back of the back. One of them was Known Ranger. They took turns exchanging leads by a nose. It was a ding dong battle all the way to the wire and I was afraid my heart would explode. At the wire it was too close too call. It was a photo finish. I had to leave the table and pace around the track awaiting the results. The results were in. Known Ranger was......second.

Someone else won the pick six. There was only one winner.

The winning ticket paid $780,000.

David
I swear to goodness I would have had to be scraped off the floor with a spatula!

Holy crap

pktruckdriver · 06-28-2009, 02:11 PM

Thank you all

I guess you are right , being 2nd is better than 3rd and that I was close to picking a winner should be something I should be greatful for, as quickly as I get beaten by the photo, it can also turn-around that quick too.

Now these beats were not necessarily within the last year. more like last 10-15 years, and it was just frustrating at the time, as I was more recreational then, and still kinda am, and may stay that way for awhile, or maybe a long time, but none-the-less, I do want to get better, and feel that I am somewhere now , and with great people who will be able to help me get better, that"s a bet I will make.

Sorry I was tied up this wknd, and did not get my homework done as some of you suggested I try thia and that, and I will get to it, I promise, as I will be learning for quite a while, and every now and then play like a recreational player on a Friday night, or even a weekend of racing, but no more than that for awhile till I get things better in line to do otherwise, more paperplaying and researching and studying , then playing to make a living or paying any bills, that day hopefully may come, but if so it is a ways off, as I HAVE LOT'S OF WORK BEFORE THAT DAY COMES, sorry not yelling, just emphazing the point, work work work, which in turn is to me FUN FUN FUN, as I really enjoy this to the 10th degree, it is my passion, my best recreational activity, way ahead of my 2nd best, deep sea fishing, so I will be here for awhile and try my best to be most respectful and patient enough, that I do not get annoying in any way, I certtainly hope I don't

Rverge · 06-28-2009, 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

Thank you all

I guess you are right , being 2nd is better than 3rd and that I was close to picking a winner should be something I should be greatful for, as quickly as I get beaten by the photo, it can also turn-around that quick too.

Now these beats were not necessarily within the last year. more like last 10-15 years, and it was just frustrating at the time, as I was more recreational then, and still kinda am, and may stay that way for awhile, or maybe a long time, but none-the-less, I do want to get better, and feel that I am somewhere now , and with great people who will be able to help me get better, that"s a bet I will make.

Sorry I was tied up this wknd, and did not get my homework done as some of you suggested I try thia and that, and I will get to it, I promise, as I will be learning for quite a while, and every now and then play like a recreational player on a Friday night, or even a weekend of racing, but no more than that for awhile till I get things better in line to do otherwise, more paperplaying and researching and studying , then playing to make a living or paying any bills, that day hopefully may come, but if so it is a ways off, as I HAVE LOT'S OF WORK BEFORE THAT DAY COMES, sorry not yelling, just emphazing the point, work work work, which in turn is to me FUN FUN FUN, as I really enjoy this to the 10th degree, it is my passion, my best recreational activity, way ahead of my 2nd best, deep sea fishing, so I will be here for awhile and try my best to be most respectful and patient enough, that I do not get annoying in any way, I certtainly hope I don't

last mention..try and read the book "overlay, overlay" by bill heller

06-26-2009, 08:42 PM	#11
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	Ummm There's no way to 'quantify' the nose beat. It's a bob. Some you win, some you lose. Losing photos and running 2nd is part of the game. It's a part of the LOSING part of the game. If you pick a horse and it runs 2nd, whether by a photo or otherwise (bad ride, blocked, etc.), it's still just another loss. Here's a revelation: you can pick the RIGHT horse and yet lose the race. That's why this game is the toughest around. Trying to account for 2nds or photo beats is like the baseball player trying to get on top of why his hard hit balls are caught. It's just a part of the game. And, just as the best players seem to hit more or these missiles that get caught than the mediocre players, the better the handicapper, the more horses that run 2nd. I consider days when I have a high number of 2nds (and photo beats) good ones because this indicates that I'm picking the right horses. AND, for every photo I lose, I know I'll get one back --- as long as I persist in the game. I'd take a chill pill, learn the game a bit more (give it a bit more than ONE year) and stop thinking that the game owes you a living. This game is BRUTAL. Last thing this game is going to do is allow someone new to it to pull out a living. This from someone who's taken some brutal beats this week; and just about every week, for that matter. Last edited by tfm; 06-26-2009 at 08:44 PM.

06-26-2009, 09:51 PM	#12
Vinnie Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 223	tfm: Absolutely loved your post. It really resonated with me as I read it just a bit ago. As painful as it is when you suffer those "nose hair" type beats occasionally, you are right on the money when you said that is how you can tell that your handicapping is on the button. For a veritable plethora of reasons the horse that you chose to wager upon (who may have been the best in the field on that day) "Loses" the race. I love the P3's and Pic 4's so naturally to accompany this type of exotic wager you have to be some one that can also tolerate getting crushed (Beat) at times. It is horrible to see three races pan out just the way that you envisioned they would only to get beat in a nail biter in the fourth race. It is part of the game and one that the player needs to be able to shrug off or condition themselves to handle without a blink if they are going to be successful over the long haul playing these types of wagers. It is all about your mindset. You can hit three out of four in two Pic 4's and you have won nothing although you have won 6 of those 8 races and if you would have structured your wagers proportionately you would in all likelihood be winning if you were playing strictly to win. Similar to what tfm said, while this game can be crushing at the very same time the rewards can be great! Just one simple instance I can remember from this last year, and there are a million other examples. I was playing a incredibly cheap P6 ticket at AQ about one year ago for $8.00. I had a 2x2x1x1x1x1. The first four races thankfully went right along as I had pictured. On the fifth race, a turf affair at 1 1/16th of a mile my #1 horse Swift Winds was preparing to launch his bid entering the stretch from about 2 to 3 wide but he encountered a wall of horses in front of him that made him stop his forward progression offstriding him temporarily and thus losing the momentum necessary to propel him to a possible victory that day. He eventually got outside the wall of horses by going around and he rushed up for a very close second getting beat by a neck. The sixth race also went as I had envisioned and I fortunately hit a 5 out of 6 for $88 bucks when "IF" that darned #1 hadn't had a bad trip running in to all of that traffic when entering the lane I would have won about 17k. I am just a very ordinary handicapper at best, and I am sure that the many excellent handicappers on this fine board probably have a million more stories than I do. The bottom line is, don't ever make a wager where you don't have some sort of value or what you perceive to be value in the race and "never let anything affect or get in the way of cultivating your very own winning attitude." Don't dwell on a super tough beat. The quicker that you can get yourself over it and move on to the next race with a fresh start or approach the better off you will be. For me it is the quest of perfection even if it is short lived or something that occurs in mere moments that makes me love this game so very much. I wish you the Best in your pursuits and wagercapping going forward pktruckdriver. Warm Regards, Vinnie __________________ "All human error is impatience; a premature renunciation of method". F. Kafka

06-27-2009, 06:48 AM	#13
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	Hi Pat.. my take on this is that I bet win/place bets on horses 8-1 and over.. Me too so many 2nd's..then i started to add the favorites in exactas ...and then they wouldnt hit either...so I just bet to win/place... It was killing me to see my longshot come in and pay $10 for place , now I have a better chance of making a little money even in 2nd mike __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

06-27-2009, 11:04 AM	#14
Houndog Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,258	Beaten by a Nose Patrick, losing photos is something all of us can relate to. I had a streak at Gulfstream several years ago where I was on the wrong side of a photo something like 6 or 7 times in a row. I was such as yourself questioning whether I was focusing on the wrong horses and whether I should change the way I was handicapping. I would caution you to be careful about doing this as we all can look back at a race and find a reason why a certain horse beat us. Unfortunately we have to make these decisions before a race which in itself is a chaotic event subject to many interpretations. Those close photos as TFM said have a way of evening out in the long run. Hang in there and don't get discouraged.

06-27-2009, 11:34 AM	#16
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,252	Patrick, The sting of losing by a nose can be mitigated somewhat by betting on 2 horses, where the odds permit. 2 horse betting is one of the classic pillars of the Sartin Methodology. You have to wait sometimes to get net odds which match your hit rate. Doc suggested that the lowest odds of a 2 horse entry for him was 5/2 (so minimum net odds of 1.25 - 1 or so in a 2 horse scenario). I would up that to 4-1 lowest, but the actual formula depends on your hit rate and average mutuel. Are you saying BOTH your horses were beat by a 3rd horse (one of them by a nose). Or are you betting one horse? This relates to my post above, soliciting details. Generalities can be inspiring, but racing success comes as a succession of fine-grained decisions. My mum once complained to me that she was getting a lot of winners in the 4th and 5th tiers of the BL screen in RDSS, and of course, not betting those and thus losing. Turns out her screen was too small and she was selecting the pacelines above or below the line she actually meant to select a lot of the time! She got the accuracy bit figured out and now is much happier! It wasn't some weird phase at 4 or 5 tracks - it was logistical. But analysing the details solved the problem. Can you share more details? Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

06-27-2009, 11:16 AM	#15
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Patrick, I assure you...you are not alone. Here's a post I wrote in 1999. A friend of mine from Palo Alto was lamenting an incredible backgammon loss to our online group of players. The post below was written in response to that. Most of the people in that group know nothing about horses. Ergo, the explanations. Clint, Enjoyed your post immensely. I used to drive my BMW motorcycle past Bay Meadows every day (usually in the rain) on the way to my old school, San Francisco State University. At the time I wasn't involved with the ponies and never went in, just cruised on by. Horse stories are like backgammon horror tales. Everybody has them. I have the dubious distinction of having one of the most mortifying ones. The bet was the "Pick 6" (pick the winner of six consecutive races: races three thru eight) at Saratoga. There was a huge carryover-no one had won the bet for two days, so most of the money was tacked on to the day's pool. I was at Yonkers Raceway watching and betting via satellite transmission. I had a longshot right off the bat. It was a cheap Maiden Claiming race and the winner paid $96.00 for every $2.00 bet on her to win. That narrowed down the Pick 6 competition considerably. I won the fourth race, then the fifth, sixth and seventh. At this point I was so nervous, I thought it might be a good time to take up Heroin or something. The last race was on the grass. The name of my horse was Known Ranger, an accomplished turf specialist. During the race he was nowhere to be seen. At the top of the stretch the front runners collapsed and two horses came charging from the back of the back. One of them was Known Ranger. They took turns exchanging leads by a nose. It was a ding dong battle all the way to the wire and I was afraid my heart would explode. At the wire it was too close too call. It was a photo finish. I had to leave the table and pace around the track awaiting the results. The results were in. Known Ranger was......second. Someone else won the pick six. There was only one winner. The winning ticket paid $780,000.

06-27-2009, 11:48 AM	#17
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	It happens Mitchell gave out a software along with one of his pace evaluation packages that, through random number generation, suggested that runs of 7 to 10 losses in a row are PART OF THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE GAME. __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

06-28-2009, 02:11 PM	#19
pktruckdriver Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Saratoga Springs Posts: 1,547	Thank you all I guess you are right , being 2nd is better than 3rd and that I was close to picking a winner should be something I should be greatful for, as quickly as I get beaten by the photo, it can also turn-around that quick too. Now these beats were not necessarily within the last year. more like last 10-15 years, and it was just frustrating at the time, as I was more recreational then, and still kinda am, and may stay that way for awhile, or maybe a long time, but none-the-less, I do want to get better, and feel that I am somewhere now , and with great people who will be able to help me get better, that"s a bet I will make. Sorry I was tied up this wknd, and did not get my homework done as some of you suggested I try thia and that, and I will get to it, I promise, as I will be learning for quite a while, and every now and then play like a recreational player on a Friday night, or even a weekend of racing, but no more than that for awhile till I get things better in line to do otherwise, more paperplaying and researching and studying , then playing to make a living or paying any bills, that day hopefully may come, but if so it is a ways off, as I HAVE LOT'S OF WORK BEFORE THAT DAY COMES, sorry not yelling, just emphazing the point, work work work, which in turn is to me FUN FUN FUN, as I really enjoy this to the 10th degree, it is my passion, my best recreational activity, way ahead of my 2nd best, deep sea fishing, so I will be here for awhile and try my best to be most respectful and patient enough, that I do not get annoying in any way, I certtainly hope I don't

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Time to Pause/Recharge!	Ted Craven	RDSS	0	12-30-2008 05:33 PM
paceline: beaten lengths	wgrotey	Classic Sartin Programs - Support, Discussion	5	09-08-2008 01:42 PM