Last Race Importance

[Ted Craven]

Mike,

You have to follow a consistent method (first an analysis method, next a wager decision method) through thickets, beating some favourites, being beaten by other favourites. In this race, the #1 looked bad last race but finished 2nd, so that 'bad' looking race, in this, case was not evidence the horse could not compete. But I'm sure we could find plenty of other recent examples of horses that looked 'good' last race but who had reached their peak, and thus performed worse today.

If you have a demonstrably successful form cycle analysis as part of your tools, maybe you can zig and zag at the right times (i.e. notice when 2nd call energy is tailing off, horse is running positionally further back against successively slower paces) in terms of when a 'worse than previous' last line indicates a decline in 'current' fitness. But sometimes, it is just plain hard to judge fit versus not-fit from visual appearance.

Hence Sartin's exhortation to consider being more liberal in pace line selection (aka best of last 3, etc).

For me, after identifying contenders, the decision often revolves around what to do with the favourite. Favourites have a bulls-eye on their flank which flashes: 'I lose 63% - 67% of the time - consider betting against me!' Thus intrigued, I start to look for strength or weakness in that favourite (usually the top rated horse in many of my readouts): is it significantly better than the next horse (say, using your most impactful, or favourite, screens for today's surface and distance - for example, 2 BL points better than the next), is its dominance demonstrated by multiple lines, has it prepped well for today's race, etc. If its top figure status is modest (say, within 1 BL point of next, or, co-equal ranked V/DC, or half a Total Energy point different, or pretty close to the 2nd horse on TS+F3 for Spec and RDSS), I'm happy to bet against this horse if I can get about 5/2 net minimum on my other bets. If the favourite beats me, I'm also (learning to be) happy because my own records (and public stats) show me the favourite will fail soon enough,and I want to be there when it next does. If the favourite has superior numbers, gapped over the competition, I have to choose between holding my nose and still betting against it, according it the win position and seeking value in the Place or Exacta pools if a good Top 3 horse (preferably with some opposite-to-win-energy patterns) is let go at generous odds, or else pass. This last bit is still difficult for me to address consistently, and I have recently made all 3 of these responses when confronted with a good looking favourite (including being paid boxcars to bet against, missing out on boxcars when passing, and being beaten badly one day at Saratoga when chalk was overwhelming...)

I know the foregoing was not strictly related to the theme here of what to do about the last race, but it seemed somewhat relevant to the example race given.

Out of curiosity (using RDSS), 3 different paceline selection sets all point to about the same wager decision info (i.e. ignore the favourite #1 because in addition to no value, there are arguably/maybe/possibly some strikes against it or else it's not that much better than the next horses, and bet the #2 and #6 - OR PASS, depending on what net odds you need):

Last lines:



Best of last 3



Best of Last 3 (different lines)




For the record, I think I would likely have either passed, or only bet this race with 60% of my win unit on the 3-1 #2 and 40% on the 5-1 #6, thus ensuring about 5/2 net from each, and I don't think there would be much value in an exacta box. Depends on how the odds were jumping around at 1 MTP.

Ted

[mikesal57]

thxs guys for your inputs...All of you had valid points !! and a lot of thinking too

I know I didn't put up the whole PP's , but none of the matcher here didn't ask "How will the race be run"
With the scratch of the 1a , which was the speed, there was no one but the 2 that could take the lead. Could the 1 catch him?? His only win in the last 2 years was on a off track...comparing routes the 1 likes slow times like 49+ 114+..the 2 could handle 47+ 111-112+ ...which made him a few lts in front

So at 3-1 I thought it was a steal

AD..that is some interesting stuff...TRB...with me, after seeing 2 bad races in a row..I wouldn't even consider going to the 3rd..have u hit any bombs with this recently?

mike

[gl45]

Mike,
from your quote "after seeing 2 bad races in a row..I wouldn't even consider going to the 3rd.."
Based on the above, you wouldn't considered this horse a contender going back to his third race back.

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

AD..that is some interesting stuff...TRB...with me, after seeing 2 bad races in a row..I wouldn't even consider going to the 3rd..have u hit any bombs with this recently?

mike

I haven't hit anything recently, but that's beside the point.

It's a great pattern, Mike.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by gl45

Mike,
from your quote "after seeing 2 bad races in a row..I wouldn't even consider going to the 3rd.."
Based on the above, you wouldn't considered this horse a contender going back to his third race back.

Hi Pino..OK ..now tell me how much did this one pay ??

This horse is a completely different situation...hes off a layoff and entering a new cycle...also he just just claimed...hes shown he can run good/winning race off a layoff.

Within the same cycle if I see 2 bad races in a row ..I'd toss....your above horse showed speed in last and the 2nd back held ground running to half mile..

I wouldnt consider this horse in this topic as bad.

mike

[gl45]

paid $7.40 to place and was good for $60.80 ex

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by gl45

paid $7.40 to place and was good for $60.80 ex

Whew..I thought u were going to say 40 bucks...

Did his 3rd race back put it in top tiers?

[gl45]

he would paid $16.60 to win
was in the top 4 contenders in my method, using line 3 or line 5.

[albatross]

I agree with you him showing lead faster fraction would have told me the#2 was better.And his last race was definitly test race plus the spd fig inproved.So he also most likely sharper