PHA Jan 23 Race 9 - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

cprescigno · 01-24-2006, 03:36 PM

Hi Dave,
Nice hit the other day. I didn't play Philadelphia yesterday but after looking at that 9th race I am sorry about it.
Don't give up on Philly, we can do well there we just have to put our heads together. I had the 1 horse in the First, paid $11.00, no exacta I think it was the 11 and 10 a 6K trifecta. Couldnt see the 10 or 11 unless I eliminated the really early horses from the E/L screen and then I think I could see the 11.

As for the Match Up rules as I call them. There is a document in the files section with the Yellow Manual called Match Up Manual. It's in two parts and most of it was written by Jim Bradshaw though there was a part written by Doc Sartin. From that I have been using these guidelines to try to figure out pace times, mostly 2nd call in sprints where that seems to be powerful, and trying to determine which horses can meet the expected fraction times. If nothing else it forces me to take a much better look at all of the horses pacelines than I normally do which is not a bad thing.
Here are some of the basic guidelines that I put into a word doc.
MATCH UP GUIDELINES

1. Find the horse that has run closest to the best pace race.
2. Find the other horses in the race that have run well against similar pace races. These horses are your true contenders.
3. Find the pacelines that you are going to use for the contenders in this race.
4. Find the horse that is going to take the lead at the First Call, and using the Quick Method Pace Chart write his feet per second figure on your Pace Matchup Graph.
5. Find the horse that is gong to have the best time to the Second Call and write down this figure.
6. Subtract all of the horses Second Call from their Final Time and write down this figure.
7. Find the horse with the best final time and write down this figure.
8. Write the name of each contender and their feet-per-second figure for each call on the graph.
9. Interpret your graph and see how the race is going to develop, and determine the two horse you would bet on.
10. Write down the names of the two horses you would bet.

TO DETERMINE PACE OF THE RACE

1. Look at the first call in all ten past performance lines for each competitor, determine itâ€™s normal first fraction time at a distance comparable to today and write this time by the name of each horse.
2. Do the same thing for the second call and the second fraction for each contender.
3. Subtract the second call from the final time to determine the third fraction.

You will have five times.
1st Fraction 2nd Fraction 3rd Fraction 2nd Call Final Time

alydar_ David · 01-25-2006, 12:46 AM

Thank you for going through all the trouble to post those guidelines, Charlie.

I'm familiar with that material, just never heard them referred to as "rules" before. LOL

When I said I was throwing in the towel for PHA I meant for the remainder of the day, not forever. Although I routinely swear off that track on a regular basis. Must be the lemming in me that keeps me coming back for more punishment. I think the best approach is still to follow Binder. He owns that track!

Currently my favorite oval is EVD. No doubt about that. However, in the last week a new contender is emerging. Believe it or not, Turf Paradise!

Today I played six races there and won two of them. But mama mia what payoffs! Fourth choice in the fourth (but best at distance) -- 5.5F $3,000 Claimer -- paid $26.60 and the best closer in the sixth -- another cheap Claimer, 6F $4,000 -- paid an outrageous $47.40.

Monday I played three races and won two of them (no prices to speak of). And on Sunday I won two out of four with payoffs of $22.20 and $28.80.

I'm not sure I understand what's going on as that track has typically been chalky as all get out. I'll ride the gravy train while it lasts though! Check it out. Maybe you'll like it.

:>)

cprescigno · 01-25-2006, 11:55 PM

I'd like to check it out Dave but I'm really green on turf races. I need a lot of work on them. I've been concentrating on Dirt Sprints almost exclucively. I just need a lot more experience on the grass. I'll get there I guess but I still hve tons to learn on the dirt.

I'm still playing Santa Anita, doing OK at Philadephia though I'm having trouble hitting something past the winner. Maybe I'm greedy but I'm always looking for that bigger payout. I'm also playing EVD and doing well there.

I found that Match up document interesting. It has helped some but mostly forcing me to take a better look at all paceines as opposed to just last three.

Charlie

alydar_ David · 01-26-2006, 01:16 AM

Charlie,

Those Turf Paradise races were almost, if not entirely, all cheap dirt sprints. Give me a 14 horse field running for $5,000 over a stakes race any day.

Betting Lost In The Fog types to win is no way to make money, if you catch my drift.

:>)

01-24-2006, 03:36 PM	#11
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	Hi Dave, Nice hit the other day. I didn't play Philadelphia yesterday but after looking at that 9th race I am sorry about it. Don't give up on Philly, we can do well there we just have to put our heads together. I had the 1 horse in the First, paid $11.00, no exacta I think it was the 11 and 10 a 6K trifecta. Couldnt see the 10 or 11 unless I eliminated the really early horses from the E/L screen and then I think I could see the 11. As for the Match Up rules as I call them. There is a document in the files section with the Yellow Manual called Match Up Manual. It's in two parts and most of it was written by Jim Bradshaw though there was a part written by Doc Sartin. From that I have been using these guidelines to try to figure out pace times, mostly 2nd call in sprints where that seems to be powerful, and trying to determine which horses can meet the expected fraction times. If nothing else it forces me to take a much better look at all of the horses pacelines than I normally do which is not a bad thing. Here are some of the basic guidelines that I put into a word doc. MATCH UP GUIDELINES 1. Find the horse that has run closest to the best pace race. 2. Find the other horses in the race that have run well against similar pace races. These horses are your true contenders. 3. Find the pacelines that you are going to use for the contenders in this race. 4. Find the horse that is going to take the lead at the First Call, and using the Quick Method Pace Chart write his feet per second figure on your Pace Matchup Graph. 5. Find the horse that is gong to have the best time to the Second Call and write down this figure. 6. Subtract all of the horses Second Call from their Final Time and write down this figure. 7. Find the horse with the best final time and write down this figure. 8. Write the name of each contender and their feet-per-second figure for each call on the graph. 9. Interpret your graph and see how the race is going to develop, and determine the two horse you would bet on. 10. Write down the names of the two horses you would bet. TO DETERMINE PACE OF THE RACE 1. Look at the first call in all ten past performance lines for each competitor, determine itâ€™s normal first fraction time at a distance comparable to today and write this time by the name of each horse. 2. Do the same thing for the second call and the second fraction for each contender. 3. Subtract the second call from the final time to determine the third fraction. You will have five times. 1st Fraction 2nd Fraction 3rd Fraction 2nd Call Final Time

01-25-2006, 12:46 AM	#12
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Thank you for going through all the trouble to post those guidelines, Charlie. I'm familiar with that material, just never heard them referred to as "rules" before. LOL When I said I was throwing in the towel for PHA I meant for the remainder of the day, not forever. Although I routinely swear off that track on a regular basis. Must be the lemming in me that keeps me coming back for more punishment. I think the best approach is still to follow Binder. He owns that track! Currently my favorite oval is EVD. No doubt about that. However, in the last week a new contender is emerging. Believe it or not, Turf Paradise! Today I played six races there and won two of them. But mama mia what payoffs! Fourth choice in the fourth (but best at distance) -- 5.5F $3,000 Claimer -- paid $26.60 and the best closer in the sixth -- another cheap Claimer, 6F $4,000 -- paid an outrageous $47.40. Monday I played three races and won two of them (no prices to speak of). And on Sunday I won two out of four with payoffs of $22.20 and $28.80. I'm not sure I understand what's going on as that track has typically been chalky as all get out. I'll ride the gravy train while it lasts though! Check it out. Maybe you'll like it. :>)

01-25-2006, 11:55 PM	#13
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	I'd like to check it out Dave but I'm really green on turf races. I need a lot of work on them. I've been concentrating on Dirt Sprints almost exclucively. I just need a lot more experience on the grass. I'll get there I guess but I still hve tons to learn on the dirt. I'm still playing Santa Anita, doing OK at Philadephia though I'm having trouble hitting something past the winner. Maybe I'm greedy but I'm always looking for that bigger payout. I'm also playing EVD and doing well there. I found that Match up document interesting. It has helped some but mostly forcing me to take a better look at all paceines as opposed to just last three. Charlie

01-26-2006, 01:16 AM	#14
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Charlie, Those Turf Paradise races were almost, if not entirely, all cheap dirt sprints. Give me a 14 horse field running for $5,000 over a stakes race any day. Betting Lost In The Fog types to win is no way to make money, if you catch my drift. :>)