Which PL would you select?

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by lsosa54

I'm assuming you refer to the Trackmaster #'s used by RDSS, Bill, because the BRIS speed figs I use certainly don't have that relationship. What I find is that there are few horses who like both courses - they prefer one or the other.

The downhill course is 64.5 feet less than 6.5 furlongs and those quick early fractions are generated down hill with that left turn as they cross the dirt and head for the stretch. I have found that the best bets are those who have shown a liking for the course before or sometimes a turf miler with good early positioning can do well.

I try to use SA @6.5 pace lines only if capping a SA @6.5 race and for nothing else. It's hard to adjust them to the HOL course or to use them to project a route.

This last has been what I've used in the past and only strayed recently due to the closeness of poly form to turf form. See below.

Yes, I was referring to the adjusted SR created by RDSS. In a just run race at SA you will see the winner Vikkilee had a 78 SR vs the best of other at 82. My quickly assembled model of 15 races, (which you caused to happen BTW) showed that winner came from top three F3 and top three VDC, FX and Fractal L. Unfortunately I jumped to the 3 and got nosed at wire. But if you add 5 pts or more to the 78 it bests the field. I used the last line for 3 because it looked improved.

Regards,

Bill

[Bill Lyster]

more shots

[Bill Lyster]

And the Binder Improver wins...Ouch. I bet 3-2 one way only. Oh well.

[lsosa54]

Gotcha, Bill, now I'm clear. Hey, if I got you to start looking at a track model, then I feel I did my job. Keep it as simple as you can.

I didn't have time to cap yesterday but I went back and looked at it. I'm at work so I can't put up any screens but here's the way I worked it:

My contenders were the 4 horses that had previously run on the turf - Foxy Bailey, Vikkilee, Entabeni, and Forever My Love. I did not consider the poly horses as contenders.

We gave Foxy and Vikki the same pacelines.

I used Entabeni's down the hill race - visually it's not so good looking but he was 3 lengths off at the 2nd call. I didn't want to use a dirt sprint if I could avoid it.

I wasn't particularly fond of the M/L favorite as he didn't show a turf sprint and I wasn't about to give him his last turf route as the speed fig (BRIS) seemed aberrant. I think I went one back on Forever My Love.

As i've mentioned before, the turf has leaned towards my EXDC screen, especially at a mile but at all distances, including down the hill.

I adjusted the race as the total energy produced by the down the hill pacelines is always significantly higher than an HOl turf sprint or any turf route.

My EXDC screen showed Vikkilee as a comfortable winner with Entabeni 2nd. My SP screen showed Forever My Love as the winner, which often happens when you shorten up a mile paceline - Entabeni again was 2nd.

If you're betting 2 horses to win, you bet Vickilee and Entabeni. Every $4 got you $7.20, a not too shabby 80% return.

[lsosa54]

Bill: a bit off the specific thread topic but a model can also keep you off making a bad or forced bet.

The 7th race at SAX on April 7th if I recall correctly was a short field turf mile with 2 short favorites. I wanted to see if I could beat them so I capped it. Model for the turf mile at SAX has been almost exclusively my EXDC screen the whole meet.

I threw out one horse right away ( I think it's name was Soul something or other). Trulymet was an early horse that fit the model but was 0 or 1 for a million and Van Berg rarely wins, but it looked like it could show at high odds.

I ran the other 4 contenders through EXDC/Thoromation with recent pacelines (mostly last) and ran the race adjusted and unadjusted. Looking at the EXDC screen, both favorites came up on top of the EXDC screen, one or the other in either scenario. The other 2 contenders were going off in the 4-1,9/2 range, but to me they had no shot, esp. in a short field based on the model.

So, no win bets as no price.

What about the exacta? Didn't see any value there either, putting the SP screen horses, which were tied btw, on the bottom. What if the 2 favs finsihed 1-2? You couldn't even buy a beer with the payoff. So no exacta bet.

What about the tri? I don't play them often and I did like Truly for the show, but I decided there was no value there either. It did pay $43 and it would have been a small bet (2-2-1), but I'm not losing sleep over not betting it.

So, in essence, my model kept me from forcing a bet on the SP screen, trying to beat the favorites, as they finished 1-2.