6/18

[tfm]

It's a bit different when I play 1, 2 or 3 tracks at a time, as opposed to playing 5 to 8 concurrently.

Woodbine T-bred - Race 3 video replay
# Win Place Show
10 $12.70 $5.00 $3.50
8 . $3.10 $2.60
6 . . $5.80



$2.00 Exacta 10-8 $35.20

The moral is don't mess with the wipe-out horses.

[tfm]

Here's one I missed at CRC, R3. I just didn't have enough time to formulate a betting plan. But the winner (General Guti) is a FIGHTER and was cutting back from two turns to 7F. He was 0 for 17 going into the race and won at 9:1 ($21.80).

The fighter angle is very strong.

Chart of his last race is attached.

[tfm]

MTH R5:

This situation is similar to that yesterday at PID, with a Ness horse in the race. Here the JUICER Dutrow has a horse coming back off more than a year layoff and she's the chalk. Don't really know what to do with her. She was clearly much better than these at one time.

Otherwise:

The 2, Rocket Zee, is cutting back from a route and should have more than enough bottom to handle these (she's got early kick sprinting, as well). The 5, Thatsallshewrote, made an explosive run to wipe out cheaper last out. She was 'escorted' however, and maybe that race is not as impressive as it appears.

If the 2 stays around 5:1, she's a win bet. Otherwise, take an exacta under the JUICE (#6) and box her in exactas with the 5.

[tfm]

JUice wins for fun

2 collapses turning for home

5 loses photo for 2nd

[tfm]

BEL R6:

never a good idea to bet Samyn but

win #2, Barrel of Love, at >= 7:2

[tfm]

Lovely

Samyn gets OUTFINISHED by Hill (who can't outfinish an octogenarian).

I knew better.

[tfm]

MTH R11

I bet #2, Fuencia, last time out when he got a perfect trip and was pretty much all out to get up. Figures to get the identical inside stalking trip today. But I'm just going to watch this one as I don't think he can duplicate the previous run.

[tfm]

He won in a gallop, with a more difficult trip. But @ 5:2, I wouldn't have been involved, in any event.

An example of how watching replays can be detrimental. From the chart the horse appears to get a perfect trip but Buddy's Holiday, who gets an almost identical run, can't finish with him; so his run is noteworthy. From the replay, he needs to really be shaken up to get by. Each approach has its benefits, obviously; mingling the two, however, can be tricky.

[tfm]

MTH R12

Dutrow has another dropdown in the race that figures to get a nice setup and there's plenty of speed.

Going to take a shot that the race falls apart enough to allow the 6, Delaware Slew, to run 2nd at huge odds.


exacta: 12 / 6