Kentucky Derby - Saturday - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

RAMON201 · 05-06-2011, 10:20 AM

Uncle Mo is out of the Derby.

Ted Craven · 05-06-2011, 11:28 AM

Here is my initial RDSS2 EL 2.0 report for the Derby. This is not my personal final analysis, but unless there are any further scratches, the EL 2.0 (NewPace) picks should not change.

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Ted

Bill V. · 05-06-2011, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Here is my initial RDSS2 EL 2.0 report for the Derby. This is not my personal final analysis, but unless there are any further scratches, the EL 2.0 (NewPace) picks should not change.

Attachment 22108

Ted

Ted can you tell use who they are ????

Ted Craven · 05-06-2011, 11:42 AM

Sure Bill,

Earlies: #13 Mucho Macho Man and #6 Comma to the Top
Lates: #1 ArchArchArch and #8 Dialed In.

In the red-circled area, the Red highlighted horses are the Early contenders and the Blue highlighted horses are the Late contenders.

Ted

Mr.Pagine · 05-06-2011, 08:47 PM

Here is what I did:

A. The following horses are out - Stay Thirsty / Decisive Moment/ Comma to the Top

B. Master of Hounds = No clue

1st - Derby Kitten ..... improving figures, and can run on anything (Derby for a Derby)
2nd - Mucho Macho Man ....consistent fellow
3rd - Archarcharch......improving, bad post

will include in exotics - Nehro, Santiva, Dialed in

Good luck to all, and Happy Punting

JD Lee

BJennet · 05-07-2011, 12:04 AM

Thanks, Ted, for posting the E.L. 2.0 figures.

I pretty much agree with these figures as well as Mr. P. and Bill V.'s KGEN analysis. This seems to be the most wide-open Derby in a while, which should be great for prices. This is my shot at order of finish:

Mucho Man
Derby Kitten
Nehro
Dialed In
Santiva
Archarcharch

I'm including mystery horse 'Master of Hounds' in exotics, on the basis of breeding and late running ability. With the scratch of Uncle Mo, I doubt MM will go off much above 5-1, but Derby Kitten and Santiva particularly seem like great overlay possiblities. I especially like the idea of DK for the possible win as the 'lightly raced' horse, who is similar to MH in terms of being bred for distance.

Best of luck to everybody in what should be a fascinating race.

Cheers,

B.Jennet

Ted Craven · 05-07-2011, 01:04 PM

I've never felt more indecisive in a Derby since I bet on Giacomo (or maybe it was when I bet on Charismatic...).

There's no point in putting up any other RDSS screenshots beside the one above, because I'm not going to bet on what they say anyway.

I'll stick with Win bets on #13 Mucho Macho Man and #1 ArchArchArch and those 2 with #6 Comma to the Top and #8 Dialed in in some kind of Exacta combos. #15 Midnight Interlude and #17 Soldat might creep in there in the 2nd position.

Good luck all!

Ted

05-06-2011, 10:20 AM	#11
RAMON201 Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 593	uncle mo out Uncle Mo is out of the Derby. __________________ Every day I wake up above the grass its a good day !

05-06-2011, 11:28 AM	#12
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,251	Here is my initial RDSS2 EL 2.0 report for the Derby. This is not my personal final analysis, but unless there are any further scratches, the EL 2.0 (NewPace) picks should not change. Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 05-06-2011 at 11:45 AM.

05-06-2011, 11:42 AM	#14
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,251	Sure Bill, Earlies: #13 Mucho Macho Man and #6 Comma to the Top Lates: #1 ArchArchArch and #8 Dialed In. In the red-circled area, the Red highlighted horses are the Early contenders and the Blue highlighted horses are the Late contenders. Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 05-06-2011 at 11:46 AM. Reason: added focus on Contenders area

05-07-2011, 12:04 AM	#16
BJennet Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 311	Wide open Thanks, Ted, for posting the E.L. 2.0 figures. I pretty much agree with these figures as well as Mr. P. and Bill V.'s KGEN analysis. This seems to be the most wide-open Derby in a while, which should be great for prices. This is my shot at order of finish: Mucho Man Derby Kitten Nehro Dialed In Santiva Archarcharch I'm including mystery horse 'Master of Hounds' in exotics, on the basis of breeding and late running ability. With the scratch of Uncle Mo, I doubt MM will go off much above 5-1, but Derby Kitten and Santiva particularly seem like great overlay possiblities. I especially like the idea of DK for the possible win as the 'lightly raced' horse, who is similar to MH in terms of being bred for distance. Best of luck to everybody in what should be a fascinating race. Cheers, B.Jennet

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05-06-2011, 08:47 PM	#15
Mr.Pagine Happy Punting Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Toronto, Ontario Posts: 527	The winner is........ Here is what I did: A. The following horses are out - Stay Thirsty / Decisive Moment/ Comma to the Top B. Master of Hounds = No clue 1st - Derby Kitten ..... improving figures, and can run on anything (Derby for a Derby) 2nd - Mucho Macho Man ....consistent fellow 3rd - Archarcharch......improving, bad post will include in exotics - Nehro, Santiva, Dialed in Good luck to all, and Happy Punting JD Lee

05-07-2011, 01:04 PM	#17
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,251	I've never felt more indecisive in a Derby since I bet on Giacomo (or maybe it was when I bet on Charismatic...). There's no point in putting up any other RDSS screenshots beside the one above, because I'm not going to bet on what they say anyway. I'll stick with Win bets on #13 Mucho Macho Man and #1 ArchArchArch and those 2 with #6 Comma to the Top and #8 Dialed in in some kind of Exacta combos. #15 Midnight Interlude and #17 Soldat might creep in there in the 2nd position. Good luck all! Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™