Saturday - 10/1 - Woodbine Turf Sprint Stakes - TM Race Class 103

[For The Lead]

Ok, here is another glimpse of “the old way”. Before I do anything, I will look at each horse and do some handicapping, then pick a line for it if the horse deserves a line. If you wish to, follow along by looking at each horse as I review it.

#1-Ariana D – right off the top, we have a horse that got beat just a ‘nk’ in its’ last race at a similar distance and on the same surface in a Grade II race. The times in this are quick, so we already have a horse to beat and a solid contender

#2-Amiable Grace – I don’t really think this horse is a contender compared to the #1 horse, but I’ll put it in off the 3rd line back and see what happens

#3-Woolly Bear – this horse doesn’t get a line and is not a contender. The only race on this surface is line 5 and I won’t go back 139 days for that line. Even if I did, do you really think the horse will come out looking good based on the time in that race compared to the #1 horse? Is this horse of the same class as the #1 horse? I’ll pass on this horse.

#4- SCRATCHED

#5-Valli With A Vow – The last line just isn’t good enough and I can’t go back to line 5 when the horse didn’t show well enough in line 1. I’ll pass on this horse.

#6-Fantastic Cousin – This horse obviously isn’t of the same caliber as the #1 horse, but I’ll put it in off of line 1. It is the same distance and surface, so I’ll see how it works out.

#7-Atlantic Hurricane – Ok, this horse goes in off its’ last race, a win in a Grade III race. This horse looks like the next best contender.

#8-Tee Game – this horse just doesn’t have anything to recommend. I’ll pass on this horse.
Horses 9,10 and 11 are scratched.

Actually, this race worked out pretty easy. The contender selection worked out good, as the race was down to 4 horses before entering a line and the contenders entered ran 1,2,3,4.
Unfortunately, there was no value in this race as the program chose "early" and the top two early horses were the #1 and #7, so the program did get the winner and third horse. This is something that happens frequently...1st and 3rd. This is the reason for "counter energy" when playing exactas, as they say.
Like last week, the winner certainly did not run like an "early" horse.
Like last week, the reason for that is the much faster early fractions for the #1 horse as compared to the other contenders.
The program can't read PP's. It only knows time and beaten lengths so it can calculate actual time for each horse. From those times, the program makes the decision on how the race should run, whether or not the horses actually run that way or not.

Here are the screen shots.

[tfm]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

Actually, this race worked out pretty easy.

Maybe it wouldn't be that way if you POSTED BEFORE THE RACE.

Do people really give a **** what REDBOARDERS post?

P.S. when I logged in to respond, I noticed I had you sorry ass on ignore. So, I must've been on to your **** from way back.

[Bill V.]

I appreciate the work that FTL shares with us.
Its an important part of Pace and Cap to help each other. I can't see or feel a person would post a after race analysis just to make them look superior. I think that a desire to show what works is a admirable trait. I think a winning attitude is to respect what
fits each of our own personalities Mr Bradshaw would often come on to pace and cap after the fact I learned from that I myself don't find losing selections very informative

Thanks
FTL

hope you get Richie's parx race on Sunday
GS
Bill

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by tfm

Maybe it wouldn't be that way if you POSTED BEFORE THE RACE.

Do people really give a **** what REDBOARDERS post?

P.S. when I logged in to respond, I noticed I had you sorry ass on ignore. So, I must've been on to your **** from way back.

You have no idea why I posted that race today OR the one you obviously missed from last week.

Perhaps you should know what you are talking about before you open your mouth.

You know, the last time you had something to say about a post I wrote I had to straighten you out because you didn’t know what you were talking about then. So I guess I have to do it again now.

On this site, if someone does redboard, they are taken at their word. On this site, discussing a race after the fact is not considered redboarding, it is simply a discussion of the race. I did not play the race, nor did I claim to. I was merely offering another look at the race, separate and apart from what would be consider the norm here, i.e. RDSS. I was simply offering another (and old) contender selection process other than “the best of last 3 distance/surface”, which is the norm here. I do not use ENERGY in my handicapping, but it fits well with the overall flavor of the site and that is the reason I used it. If you can’t accept that, it’s just too bad. And I’m not in the habit of explaining myself to anyone, least of all you, so consider this a freebie. It will be the last time.

Now why don’t you crawl back under the rock you were under and write some more posts about jockeys that don’t know how to ride, trainers that are juicers, speed biases that you hate, NYRA racing, turf races with Arabian fractions, off- turfers and all that other stuff that you constantly complain about… like someone cares about that.

And while you are at it, if you took me off of ignore, put me back on.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

I appreciate the work that FTL shares with us.
Its an important part of Pace and Cap to help each other. I can't see or feel a person would post a after race analysis just to make them look superior. I think that a desire to show what works is a admirable trait. I think a winning attitude is to respect what
fits each of our own personalities Mr Bradshaw would often come on to pace and cap after the fact I learned from that I myself don't find losing selections very informative

Thanks
FTL

hope you get Richie's parx race on Sunday
GS
Bill

Thanks, Bill.

I hope it was of some value to you.

[mikesal57]

EXCELLENT post FTL!!!

What people seem to forget is how to handicap
You shown how to read the PP's and sort of the "real" contenders
Software is just that ...made people "soft"
inputting the best of last three is the lazy way out
you need to see if the horse fits the race and is in form
just going back to the basics , you can get a field down to 4 contenders, most of the time. then you can use what ever approach you prefer.

good job and always appreciate your post

the "old way" is still the only way

Mike

[Bill Lyster]

The horses have to fit the conditions of the race. Just because a $10K claimer ran 109 one race back does not mean that he will beat a consistent graded sprinter with the same time potential.

FTL, keep up the examples of thoughtful handcapping. I can always use the reminder on whats relevant.


Bill

[For The Lead]

Thank you mikesal57 and Bill Lyster. I appreciate both of your comments.

And by the way Bill, that was a nice review on the race at PARX today.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by tfm

Maybe it wouldn't be that way if you POSTED BEFORE THE RACE.

Do people really give a **** what REDBOARDERS post?

P.S. when I logged in to respond, I noticed I had you sorry ass on ignore. So, I must've been on to your **** from way back.

TFM,

It is quite clear that you do not appreciate what you call 'redboarding', which to other readers who may be mystified as to why you seem so upset so frequently - means (traditionally) posting after the fact something like 'oh yeah, I had that race, I'm so brilliant'. The typical 'redboard' poster usually comes across as smug and superior sounding, and generally unhelpful from an educational stand-point.

If anyone can state a site-policy for PaceandCap, perhaps it is me, so here it is: anyone is entirely welcomed to post an analysis of a race after it has run even if you did not do so before the race. This would typically happen in an attempt to be educational or instructive and NOT to be a show off. It is even classier to mention whether you did or did not actually bet the race (extra points for a screenshot of your bet, though certainly not required!) 'Showing-off' is considered bad form and doing it too much tends to get you ignored or pitied. For the record, I don't know of anyone who does that around here.

So - I invite you to chill out, please! Accept the 'PaceandCap' definition of 'red-boarding' and get over it, or avert your eyes.

Or - continue to pepper your posts with terms like **** or ***. As any 8th grader knows - in the context used, that's still profanity, in which case, please read the Terms of Service for this site to learn what happens next.

Or, the best option, IMO - continue posting before or after a race with thoughtful analysis of how and why a race will run or has run, perhaps even helping a few others to understand your approach to race analysis.

But do seriously consider the above 'chill out' suggestion. I know you are a smart guy.

Ted