Corollaries and the 2nd Call

[For The Lead]

One of the nicer things about keeping a track profile is that it is ABSOLUTE! It has no bearing on opinion or line selection or anything else. When you look at the chart you see where the horse was (positionally) on the track at each call in the race.

In order to make a determination about how horses are running at the track(s) you play, it really doesn't require anything more than recording the winner's position at the first and second calls. Here's what it would look like using last night's winners at Mountaineer.

1stCall Position.....2nd Call position
.........1........................1
.........6........................4
.........2........................2
.........1........................1
.........1........................1
.........2........................2
.........2........................1
.........1........................1
.........1........................1

They are the winner's ACTUAL POSITIONS at those two calls, no question about it!
In the case of the 2nd race, we really don't need to see the stretch call or the finish, we KNOW that horse WON!

If you knew from prior record keeping that 1st and 2nd call horses did well at MNR, let's say close to the overall percentages I posted earlier, that is just half of the battle. Now you have to determine which horses are the most likely horses to be running 1st, 2nd or 3rd at the 1st call or 2nd call before the race is run. From those 1st and 2nd call "contenders", you then must make a determination as to which horse's you believe will be the best of the group. Here are my 1st and 2nd call "contenders" from these race last night. The ultimate winner is noted in RED.

RACE 1.....FIRST Call = 7, 5, 2.....SECOND Call = 7, 9, 5..........WIN PRICE = 9.60
RACE 2.....FIRST Call = 4, 3, 9.....SECOND Call = 4, 3, 2
RACE 3.....FIRST Call = 5, 10, 9...SECOND Call = 5, 10, 1..........WIN PRICE = 11.00
RACE 4.....FIRST Call = 4, 8, 6.....SECOND Call = 4, 8, 10..........WIN PRICE = 9.20
RACE 5.....FIRST Call = 4, 5, 9.....SECOND Call = 5, 10, 4..........WIN PRICE = 4.40
RACE 6.....FIRST Call = 1, 6, 2.....SECOND Call = 6, 1, 3..........WIN PRICE = 3.40
RACE 7.....FIRST Call = 8, 5, 10......SECOND Call = 8, 1, 5..........WIN PRICE = 14.60
RACE 8.....FIRST Call = 6, 11, 9......SECOND Call = 6, 3, 11..........WIN PRICE = 6.80
RACE 9.....FIRST Call = 2, 8, 1.......SECOND Call = 9, 2, 8..........WIN PRICE = 48.80

I just used MNR from last night as an example.

So even armed with good information, there is still work to be done.

[DaveEdwards]

Brilliant post FTL. Even without knowing the lengths behind for those winners that weren't leading at either call it is clear that they were all on the premises throughout the race. There is nothing ambiguous about the data at all!

I hadn't thought about 1st call data to be honest, but it isn't much extra effort to collate that data if you are doing the 2nd call anyway. Yes plenty of work still to be done in identifying those horses that fit the profile etc, but it is clear that there is a profile for them to fit.

Thanks Froggy. I hadn't thought of that element and will pay attention to see where I can draw the line on easy eliminations.

[For The Lead]

For the last week or so I have been posting what you may refer to as a "track profile" for MNR. This started with this thread regarding the 2nd call in horse racing. The question was "is the 2nd call dead?". I posted percentages of winners that are running 1,2,3 at the first AND second calls of their winning races. Then I got more specific with MNR. This is a continuation of that.

11/11/11
............1st call.....2nd call
Race 1......1..............1
Race 2......3..............1
Race 3......2..............1
Race 4......2..............2
Race 5......6..............5
Race 6......5..............4
Race 7.....10.............6
Race 8......2..............2
Race 9......2..............1

11/12/11
Race 1......1...............1
Race 2......3...............3
Race 3......1...............2
Race 4......5...............4
Race 5......3...............2
Race 6......3...............3
Race 7......5...............3
Race 8......1...............1
Race 9......4...............2

In 12 of these last 18 races, the winner was 1,2,3 at the first call (67%)
In 14 of these last 18 races, the winner was 1,2,3 at the second call (78%)
For those of you you may have been following this, just add this to what I have already posted.
Winners run up close.
The second call is alive and well.
Simple records like this can help you at the track(s) you play.

[For The Lead]

11.13.11 @ MNR

...............1st call.....2nd call
Race 1.........1...............1
........2.........1................1
........3.........2................1
........4.........2................2
........5.........1................1
........6.........2................1
........7.........2................2
........8.........1................1
........9.........1................1

A PERFECT 9 for 9!
From distances of 5.5f to 1m3/4
From $4 winners to $69.40 winners

If you not handicapping to find the early horses at MNR, you're probably not winning many races.

Like the title says, this will be my last post on this topic.
I hope everyone is taking advantage of the information being provided.

Good luck!

[DaveEdwards]

FLT, thank you very much for sharing your thoughts and data. I really appreciate the effort you have put in here.

Sadly for me MNR doesn't start until around midnight my time when I'm sound asleep!

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by DaveEdwards

FLT, thank you very much for sharing your thoughts and data. I really appreciate the effort you have put in here.

Sadly for me MNR doesn't start until around midnight my time when I'm sound asleep!

Thanks. No problem at all, Just sorry you are not able to make use of it.

[DaveEdwards]

Hello FLT,

I've just been going over this thread again and have a couple of queries in relation to the 1C & 2C positions.

Would you consider it pertinent to record the beaten lengths at each call too?
I'm thinking a highly contentious early pace could result in perhaps the 4th or maybe even 5th horse to be running close enough to the pace in order to have been considered within the realms of the 1st,2nd & 3rd at the 1st 2 calls.

When recording your data do you note situations where early fighting burned up some horses thereby enabling a horse to come from off the pace adding "noise" to your dataset as in all probability, if there wasn't early fighting the off the pace horse wouldn't have won anyway?

Bit of a blast from the past this thread I know, sorry!

Thank you.

[Midland333]

Thats just flat out really powerful sh--.
Thanks for sharing your hard work with us----I used to be so careful about profiles at one time and responsibilities etc. has made me falter over the years. Damn shame as a really good profile is so important and so helpful.
I've probably made the most money at MTN. simply because I was mostly betting on the horse who was best or second best early followed up by taking the best of those two who had the best late. Therre was a couple months were it was pik3 heaven.
Awesome information and back up----gracias!!!
Mike

[DaveEdwards]

FTL (sorry, I keep calling you FLT, it's an abbreviation from my work.....)

I've been reading some of the middle chapter's from Tom Brohamer's book and have the answers I needed. Obviously if there is anything you'd like to add I'd be more than happy to read it!

I'll admit that maintaining a profile isn't something I've been doing, but reading MPH has made me think back to a few results that just didn't go my way & I couldn't fathom out why. It's now as clear as day.

I'm going to go with Penn & TUP I think for now. Timewise, both fit reasonably well for me, well not too late at Penn, but weekends is good.

Thanks.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by DaveEdwards

FTL (sorry, I keep calling you FLT, it's an abbreviation from my work.....)

I've been reading some of the middle chapter's from Tom Brohamer's book and have the answers I needed. Obviously if there is anything you'd like to add I'd be more than happy to read it!

I'll admit that maintaining a profile isn't something I've been doing, but reading MPH has made me think back to a few results that just didn't go my way & I couldn't fathom out why. It's now as clear as day.

I'm going to go with Penn & TUP I think for now. Timewise, both fit reasonably well for me, well not too late at Penn, but weekends is good.

Thanks.

No problem. Most people refer to me as FTL. ("For The Lead" is a lot to type all the time lol).

Although I have both running position and beaten lengths at each call in my database, I consider position more important than beaten lengths, but I do understand where you’re headed and I’m not saying you’re wrong. I don’t keep any information with regard to “fighting” as you may mean it, but I have created my own method of evaluating early pace scenarios, which are stored in my database.

I recently wrote in another thread that many times, in a field where there are mostly early horses, one of the early horses will end up being a dominant early horse. This leaves the remaining early types in a position of chasing, which is something they don’t like to do. It basically eliminates them from the race. Now it doesn’t work out this way every time, but it does happen often.

Glad to hear you found some helpful information in Brohamer's book.

Hope you had a very Merry Christmas!