A Change in The Wind - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

big49010 · 01-28-2013, 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by trotman

To Dorianmode and others IMO it's the horse that runs the race. Trainer stats, jockey stats, trainer jockey stats are just identical to the PP's, they are the past. These items IMO are deciding factors to which horse you put your money on. I pay no attention to them, only to the horse. Horse racing is starting to look like a hockey or NFL fantasy pool with all these secondary stats. What irks me is so many people have a position on who is right and who is wrong yet the majority follow the blind sheep. For those you look up to as handicappers or who you followed you need to go back and re-read it all because IMO your way off base.

If what you say is true, why hasn't Jack VanBerg and Wayne Lukas the two trainers that taught many of the best trainers out there today, been successful with Multi-Million dollar stock in the last 10 year? Based on what you are saying, add Nick to this group. Training has changed, and these guys haven't changed with the times, so if you treat them like the power houses they used to be, you heading for disaster.

On the flip side, if you get on the bandwagon with a Rudy Rodriguez or Chad Brown before they get in the mainstream, you can find overlays on horses that move up in figures outside of the public eye.

trotman · 01-28-2013, 08:52 PM

Big49010 I agree with you hitting on a trainer before the rest of the crowd that yes there is money to be made for a period. Unlike using the stats as most would incorporate into their handicapping 3 trainers come to mind that I noticed years ago and because they start so few each year it was easy to research and find a solid pattern for each one and it has been a huge bonus for me. I just put these 3 trainers on a watch list and when they are entered I look at the PP's, each of their patterns are etched in my mind. These 3 trainers will win just like the sun coming up on a summer morning when the pattern is present.

exactor · 01-29-2013, 06:19 AM

I tend to use this for elimination. If there are low stats maybe they are not always incompetent just not trying to win all-out in these situations.

atkinsrr · 01-29-2013, 09:30 PM

Trotman..couldn't have said it better myself.."The Horse Runs the Race".. see Follow Up #54 pages 10-13. Doc Sartins article on trainers and jockeys. Doc always said that we should have a win % minimum of 62% once we learned how to do things according to what we have learned thru the Follow ups and thru practice..practice..practice. I have yet to see a trainer, jockey, or any other stat long term that hit 62%. The pacelines that I get from RDSS are run by the horse...please everyone read and re-read these follow up journals...Doc put a lot of work into these manuals to help us win...don't let them gather dust on the bookshelf...These journals are worth more than their weight in gold.....trust me...I have them all on my bookshelf right by my desk and mine do not collect dust........

shoeless · 01-30-2013, 06:20 PM

On the flipside of that is there anybody on board that has a 62% win
rate, I seriously doubt it.

Bill V. · 01-30-2013, 07:11 PM

Hi Jeff

Well you right about me
I have been about a 40 - 45 percent winner each 20 race cycle since
1997 thats 8 or 9 wins per 20 races
The fact that from 1997 till 2010 I bet only horses over 5/2 and hid anything lower puts me well under the good old Sartin days when any winner at any
price pumped up a 66% win rate.

Now that I'm betting much fewer races my profits are better
but I also am not falling into $60 horses as much becaus I usually don't have
$60 horses as true contenders

Bill

atkinsrr · 01-30-2013, 07:13 PM

no but I'm close....I'm averaging around 55% bouncing around 53 to 58 betting 2 horses to win...that's also counting pic 3's & 4's where I have more than 2 horses in most races,
ave mutual is hanging around $12.00 ....I WILL GET THERE!!!!!!!!!

atkinsrr · 01-30-2013, 07:30 PM

also I forgot to mention...for years have been a win better only...this month I have started tracking exactas...Note that in the past Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw and I have been the 2 worst exacta bettors in the group...I think he mentioned once that he couldn't hit an exacta if there was only 2 horses in the race...but anyway...for January I bet 8 exactas and hit 5....$2 bets only.. some keys some 3H boxes and showed a small profit of $48.00...will keep working on this until I've proven to myself that I can make a profit long term

shoeless · 01-31-2013, 05:38 AM

Bill and Atkinssr those are very good win % and I know you put in
a lot of hard work to achieve that.

big49010 · 02-01-2013, 09:25 PM

I have always been a single horse win bettor. My win percentage for my last 500 bets is 24.5% with an average odds of 4.80. I have had two 16 race loosing streaks, along with two 11 race loosing streaks, which can be a little tough on the head bone. I am curious about the 20 race cycle, what is the idea behind that, or point me to the info for more research. I am not sure I would switch to two horse betting, but would like to read a little more about it also.

01-28-2013, 08:52 PM	#12
trotman Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 259	Big49010 I agree with you hitting on a trainer before the rest of the crowd that yes there is money to be made for a period. Unlike using the stats as most would incorporate into their handicapping 3 trainers come to mind that I noticed years ago and because they start so few each year it was easy to research and find a solid pattern for each one and it has been a huge bonus for me. I just put these 3 trainers on a watch list and when they are entered I look at the PP's, each of their patterns are etched in my mind. These 3 trainers will win just like the sun coming up on a summer morning when the pattern is present. __________________ "Success consists of simply getting back up one more time than you fall"

01-30-2013, 07:11 PM	#16
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Middle 40's Hi Jeff Well you right about me I have been about a 40 - 45 percent winner each 20 race cycle since 1997 thats 8 or 9 wins per 20 races The fact that from 1997 till 2010 I bet only horses over 5/2 and hid anything lower puts me well under the good old Sartin days when any winner at any price pumped up a 66% win rate. Now that I'm betting much fewer races my profits are better but I also am not falling into $60 horses as much becaus I usually don't have $60 horses as true contenders Bill

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01-29-2013, 06:19 AM	#13
exactor AlwNW1X Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 8	I tend to use this for elimination. If there are low stats maybe they are not always incompetent just not trying to win all-out in these situations.

01-29-2013, 09:30 PM	#14
atkinsrr Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 507	Trotman..couldn't have said it better myself.."The Horse Runs the Race".. see Follow Up #54 pages 10-13. Doc Sartins article on trainers and jockeys. Doc always said that we should have a win % minimum of 62% once we learned how to do things according to what we have learned thru the Follow ups and thru practice..practice..practice. I have yet to see a trainer, jockey, or any other stat long term that hit 62%. The pacelines that I get from RDSS are run by the horse...please everyone read and re-read these follow up journals...Doc put a lot of work into these manuals to help us win...don't let them gather dust on the bookshelf...These journals are worth more than their weight in gold.....trust me...I have them all on my bookshelf right by my desk and mine do not collect dust........

01-30-2013, 06:20 PM	#15
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,646	On the flipside of that is there anybody on board that has a 62% win rate, I seriously doubt it.

01-30-2013, 07:13 PM	#17
atkinsrr Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 507	no but I'm close....I'm averaging around 55% bouncing around 53 to 58 betting 2 horses to win...that's also counting pic 3's & 4's where I have more than 2 horses in most races, ave mutual is hanging around $12.00 ....I WILL GET THERE!!!!!!!!!

01-30-2013, 07:30 PM	#18
atkinsrr Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 507	also I forgot to mention...for years have been a win better only...this month I have started tracking exactas...Note that in the past Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw and I have been the 2 worst exacta bettors in the group...I think he mentioned once that he couldn't hit an exacta if there was only 2 horses in the race...but anyway...for January I bet 8 exactas and hit 5....$2 bets only.. some keys some 3H boxes and showed a small profit of $48.00...will keep working on this until I've proven to myself that I can make a profit long term

01-31-2013, 05:38 AM	#19
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,646	Bill and Atkinssr those are very good win % and I know you put in a lot of hard work to achieve that.

02-01-2013, 09:25 PM	#20
big49010 AlwNW1X Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 11	I have always been a single horse win bettor. My win percentage for my last 500 bets is 24.5% with an average odds of 4.80. I have had two 16 race loosing streaks, along with two 11 race loosing streaks, which can be a little tough on the head bone. I am curious about the 20 race cycle, what is the idea behind that, or point me to the info for more research. I am not sure I would switch to two horse betting, but would like to read a little more about it also.