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Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice |
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12-20-2009, 07:30 AM | #21 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 154
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Quote:
For the Lead, I think the question was refferring to how I use the matchup. When I get down within 4 or 5 horses, I will then look for tandems. I never look at layoffs. I understand most horses win (90% according to you, but my database shows 87%), but a horse has to be good enough BEFORE the layoff to win in the 1st start back. Some horses in your query doesn't stand a shot based on the pace the horse has faced previously before the break, and therefore wouldn't be a contender anyways. As far as Tandems, as Jim I am sure, would have agreed, that although a horse lost to another, its HOW and WHY he lost to that horse that counts. If the horses were close, and its been awhile, the loser of the 1st race def. can beat the other horse. Now if Horse A beat horse B in the Tandem race, and in that race Horse B was no better than 7th the entire race, I dont care whether the race was yesterday or a year ago, Horse B will most unlikely beat Horse A. Again, I believe the question was HOW I USE THE MATCHUP. I may have been mistaken, and if so I apologize. |
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12-20-2009, 07:36 AM | #22 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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FTL...those are awesome numbers from a vast data base and a good tip to look for lines within 90 days ..nice
But Justin is comfortable using his last 4 no matter what..this is what works for him With tandems bro...let me tell you...I dont keep data or models or track profiles ...but let me tell you...when I look at a race after the fact( i know its wrong) I see that the horse lost to another once in the PP's..ok that said.. next time I cap, I look and see if a horse lost to tandem horse before...ok..he did...but theres no way this will happen again...guess what ...it does..no matter what I thought , somehow he loses to him again..this is just my opinion and what I remember.. p.s- 500,000 races you just gave away your age...lol mike
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12-20-2009, 07:45 AM | #23 | |
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Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 154
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Quote:
As far as the recencly of last race goes, again horse has to be better before the layoff to win todays race, otherwise horse is a kickout anyways. I dont want to offend you FTL, but I posted 3 races in last 3 days and winner in top 2 in all of them. The match-up is what I use, not handicapping 101. lol. I use what Jim teached, using different fractions. I dont even lable horses E/P/S at all. If a horse can compete and keep close at a 1:09 time for 6 furlongs, and nobody in the race can compete at a 1:10, I dont care whether there is a Lone E, Lone S or what, the horse that can go 1:09 and finish strong can beat a horse closing or setting the pace in 1:10 anyday! Mike, will you be doing some live races today? |
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12-20-2009, 07:47 AM | #24 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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Quote:
good to see your an early bird too mike
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12-20-2009, 07:48 AM | #25 |
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Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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shhhh...i think hes older..lol
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12-20-2009, 07:53 AM | #26 |
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Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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and speaking of tandems...look at my Hollywood 5th..
I picked the 6 thinking I'll get a speed dual up front and he'll close on them guess what...It didnt happen and the 1a that beat my 6 prior...did it again.. mike
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12-20-2009, 07:56 AM | #27 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 878
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there is only one MU, "The HAT" MU.
All the others references not using 100% "The HAT" guidelines are not MU, just proficient methods which might incorporate some of The HAT ideas, that's all. |
12-20-2009, 08:03 AM | #28 | |
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Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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Quote:
like u said
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12-20-2009, 08:05 AM | #29 |
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Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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and my opinion from what I've seen and read and tried...no one can do what that man has done..so 100 % ...forget about it
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12-20-2009, 08:07 AM | #30 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 154
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Quote:
With that said, I derived off his ideas, instead of matching up how the horses will setup the race, my idea makes it so that you can see IF the pace is SO and SO fast, only these horse can be close... I am in no way saying it is the "matchup". Everybody on here has tried "the matchup" with moderate success, mostly due to the fact Jim was an expert at what he did, and I really dont think many can re-create his actions. Its the same idea, just different approach. Mike, and the rest that are following along, I will be posing selections today from time to time, using my version. Feel free to stop by and chime in. Wish you all luck today. |
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