Anaylize This - Page 3 - Pace and Cap

shoeless · 04-25-2006, 05:33 PM

Dap,I got a hold of him and he hasnt used Syn 2 in quite awhile and said he could be of no help.Jeff

shoeless · 04-25-2006, 05:43 PM

I know Im being a pain in the rear with this but I would really like to learn how to do it.This is another race from Tampa on Sunday.Im not worried about anything else just the fractional readouts.If you could please give your analysis step by step how you would match these horses up.Thanks very much Jeff

gl45 · 04-25-2006, 07:29 PM

Slow horses
Right= slow f1, slow f2, slow SC, f3 not good enough for contending===out
Burly= slow f1, press f2, press Sc, f3 very slow===out

Fast horses
say= top f1, top f2, top SC, f3 very slow=if Med% 70 too fast will tired=out

contenders:
ski
hermit
short
carson

shoeless · 04-26-2006, 04:55 PM

Well let me ask another question since Im not getting much feedback on this.If you use either Val or Speculator do you look at the internal fractions at all or do you just go by the rankings and graphs.Jeff

tompkins · 04-26-2006, 05:10 PM

THE GREATEST MOVE FORWARD I EVER MADE with these programs was to LET THE PROGRAM DO THE WORK of evaluating the lines. Over analyzing what went IN often made me miss what was important. SUBJECTIVELY, we cannot make the multiple comparisons that the program does.

Wonder about a line? Put in three or four for that one horse and see how it stacks up against the better ones. If it doesn't, delete it. If it does, keep the best one and go on to the next horse's line(s).

LET THE PROGRAM READOUTS decide what line(s) to consider, not you.

Houndog · 04-26-2006, 05:12 PM

shoe, without knowing too much about the distance or how Tampa runs Say does have the F1, F2, and SC dream fractions. If his percent median is in excess of 70% that may be cause for concern. If he gets out to an easy lead he may be able to conserve some of that early energy and translate it to the later stages of the race. This is where your Brohamer model and a track profile would be beneficial. You could establish percent median parameters to get a range of what winners do here.

tompkins · 04-26-2006, 05:16 PM

the % median win ranges are remarkedly consistent track to track (a bit higher with maidens and young horses). It is having those little odds ones in your back pocket that make a killing (i.e.Woodbine 7.0 furlong for example for as long as it is there :til after the Queen's Plate in June and then it's on to the inner harness track until the Poly rolls in later in the Summer. Crap!!!)

Rxlawyer · 04-26-2006, 05:28 PM

Jeff:

I see you are REALLY hung up on the analysis of fractions. I think the reason you are so hung up on them and having trouble converting your work into winners is highlighted in the post you just made about looking at ONLY the fractions.

Races and finding winners does not work by fractions alone. Why? Because fractions alone do not tell the whole story and it takes the whole story to win. The whole story includes such things as the running style of each horse. For example if a horse is a confirmed "E" horse and there are several "E" horses in the race then there is a likelihood that the pace of the race will be faster than one might otherwise expect. Therefore, the fractions will not go as stated in the printouts. The first fraction will go faster than the printout indicates while the third fraction will go slower, at least for the "E" horses. Therefore, the construction of the race will have a more significant effect on the outcome of the race as compared to the fractions alone.

The bottom line is that you can not and should not look at the fractions in such a vacuum. They do not exist in a vacuum. They are only an indication of what you might expect. The fractions are there to help you visualize how the race might actually be run. Who will take the lead? Who will press? Who will get stuck in traffic? Will there be a traffic jam? Use the fractions to answer questions like this to determine who will cross the wire first.

Hope this helps.

Gary

shoeless · 04-26-2006, 06:11 PM

Tompkins,My question didnt deal with picking a paceline Im confident in doing that it's what to do after the pacelines are in.Jeff

shoeless · 04-26-2006, 06:13 PM

Houndog,I forgot it's 6 fur and Say medium energy is over 70% but thanks for the advice.Jeff

04-25-2006, 05:43 PM	#22
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,646	I know Im being a pain in the rear with this but I would really like to learn how to do it.This is another race from Tampa on Sunday.Im not worried about anything else just the fractional readouts.If you could please give your analysis step by step how you would match these horses up.Thanks very much Jeff Attached Images

04-26-2006, 05:10 PM	#25
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	Without Subjectivity THE GREATEST MOVE FORWARD I EVER MADE with these programs was to LET THE PROGRAM DO THE WORK of evaluating the lines. Over analyzing what went IN often made me miss what was important. SUBJECTIVELY, we cannot make the multiple comparisons that the program does. Wonder about a line? Put in three or four for that one horse and see how it stacks up against the better ones. If it doesn't, delete it. If it does, keep the best one and go on to the next horse's line(s). LET THE PROGRAM READOUTS decide what line(s) to consider, not you. __________________ velocititian

04-26-2006, 05:16 PM	#27
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	the % median win ranges are remarkedly consistent track to track (a bit higher with maidens and young horses). It is having those little odds ones in your back pocket that make a killing (i.e.Woodbine 7.0 furlong for example for as long as it is there :til after the Queen's Plate in June and then it's on to the inner harness track until the Poly rolls in later in the Summer. Crap!!!) __________________ velocititian

04-25-2006, 05:33 PM	#21
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,646	Dap,I got a hold of him and he hasnt used Syn 2 in quite awhile and said he could be of no help.Jeff

04-25-2006, 07:29 PM	#23
gl45 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 878	Slow horses Right= slow f1, slow f2, slow SC, f3 not good enough for contending===out Burly= slow f1, press f2, press Sc, f3 very slow===out Fast horses say= top f1, top f2, top SC, f3 very slow=if Med% 70 too fast will tired=out contenders: ski hermit short carson

04-26-2006, 04:55 PM	#24
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,646	Well let me ask another question since Im not getting much feedback on this.If you use either Val or Speculator do you look at the internal fractions at all or do you just go by the rankings and graphs.Jeff

04-26-2006, 05:12 PM	#26
Houndog Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,258	shoe, without knowing too much about the distance or how Tampa runs Say does have the F1, F2, and SC dream fractions. If his percent median is in excess of 70% that may be cause for concern. If he gets out to an easy lead he may be able to conserve some of that early energy and translate it to the later stages of the race. This is where your Brohamer model and a track profile would be beneficial. You could establish percent median parameters to get a range of what winners do here.

04-26-2006, 05:28 PM	#28
Rxlawyer Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 212	Jeff: I see you are REALLY hung up on the analysis of fractions. I think the reason you are so hung up on them and having trouble converting your work into winners is highlighted in the post you just made about looking at ONLY the fractions. Races and finding winners does not work by fractions alone. Why? Because fractions alone do not tell the whole story and it takes the whole story to win. The whole story includes such things as the running style of each horse. For example if a horse is a confirmed "E" horse and there are several "E" horses in the race then there is a likelihood that the pace of the race will be faster than one might otherwise expect. Therefore, the fractions will not go as stated in the printouts. The first fraction will go faster than the printout indicates while the third fraction will go slower, at least for the "E" horses. Therefore, the construction of the race will have a more significant effect on the outcome of the race as compared to the fractions alone. The bottom line is that you can not and should not look at the fractions in such a vacuum. They do not exist in a vacuum. They are only an indication of what you might expect. The fractions are there to help you visualize how the race might actually be run. Who will take the lead? Who will press? Who will get stuck in traffic? Will there be a traffic jam? Use the fractions to answer questions like this to determine who will cross the wire first. Hope this helps. Gary

04-26-2006, 06:11 PM	#29
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,646	Tompkins,My question didnt deal with picking a paceline Im confident in doing that it's what to do after the pacelines are in.Jeff

04-26-2006, 06:13 PM	#30
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,646	Houndog,I forgot it's 6 fur and Say medium energy is over 70% but thanks for the advice.Jeff