Kentucky Derby / Energy!

[Dap Daddi]

Richie:

The attached sheet represents the contenders I considered wrth plottingwith respect to a represnetitive race of either 8.5 (1 1/16th mile0 or 9.0 (1 1/8th miles) of which I took each horse's final time and subtracted the finish time from the mile and multiplied the number times four in the instance the race was 8.5 furlongs or multiplied it times 2 if the race was 9.0 furlongs. The end result was to get a representitive time for 1 1/4 miles of which the sheet shows. I then took each horses internal fractions from one call to the next and subrtracted it to get each horses internal times. Thus the attached spreadsheet.

I would be curious to hear what you and others thinnk of the data presented.

Interestingly the pace line for Cause to Believe was not from a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race which is one of Doc's rules for selecting the Derby Contender. I used the $100K race for hime. Everyone else listed is from a Grade !1 or Grade 2 race.

Interested in hearing your comments!

[Dap Daddi]

Also based on the previosu information with regards to using only horse what won or placed in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race would the following horses only be considered and the rest eliminated:
Brother Derek
Lawyer Ron
Barbaro
Bob and John
Sinister MinisterSteppenwolfer
Keyed Entry
Showing up
Point Determined
Like Now
Storm Treasure
Jazil
Seaside Retreat
AP Warrior
Sweetnorthenrsaint
Sharp Humor
Mister Triester
Sacred Light
That makes a total of 17 horses who qualify per Doc's rule.

Any comments?

[Dap Daddi]

If you have the time I would recommend that you go to Calracing.com and watch the Santa Anita Derby video. It's free. One thing I think you will get out of watching is that cetain horses in the race to me were just ridden out without the jockey pushing their horse harder. I call it saving a little horse for the next time. Just my opinion.

[tompkins]

Before you start lookibg over the derby hoepfuls go to Dr. Romans' site first: http://www.chef-de-race.com/2006_der...parameters.htm


SOME will surprise you i.e. Brother Derek

[Forego]

Thank you moderator for the screenhunter. I learn something new every day.
I have used Synergism for years. Here is my Derby.

All pacelines are taken from the last race with the tandem method applied.

I am very surprised nobody gets Jazil in the readouts.This is an extremely live longshot who will begin to make his move in the 2nd fraction while the pace is collapsing up front. The faster they go the harder he is coming. Look at the 7f race he showed last year as a 2 year old against a 45 half. This is a totally legitimate closer. This is not a strictly 3rd fraction horse. Watch for him.

Brother Derek and Barbaro are not in the top 3 SP horses and are eliminated for win consideration.

Sweetnorthernsaint and Jazil are the win bets looking at the readouts.

Point Determined is the 3rd horse to be used in exacta box.

Here are my 3 screen shots

good luck to everyone and may all the horses return healthy.

[Forego]

my second screen shot

[Forego]

my third screen shot

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Dap Daddi

Richie:

The attached sheet represents the contenders I considered wrth plottingwith respect to a represnetitive race of either 8.5 (1 1/16th mile0 or 9.0 (1 1/8th miles) of which I took each horse's final time and subtracted the finish time from the mile and multiplied the number times four in the instance the race was 8.5 furlongs or multiplied it times 2 if the race was 9.0 furlongs. The end result was to get a representitive time for 1 1/4 miles of which the sheet shows. I then took each horses internal fractions from one call to the next and subrtracted it to get each horses internal times. Thus the attached spreadsheet.

I would be curious to hear what you and others thinnk of the data presented.

Interestingly the pace line for Cause to Believe was not from a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race which is one of Doc's rules for selecting the Derby Contender. I used the $100K race for hime. Everyone else listed is from a Grade !1 or Grade 2 race.

Interested in hearing your comments!

Hey Dap,

that looks sharp man. Brings back a lot of memories of how I used to lay stuff out on the form back in the TPR days of the early 90's.

looks really good Bobby!

Richie

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Forego

Thank you moderator for the screenhunter. I learn something new every day.
I have used Synergism for years. Here is my Derby.

All pacelines are taken from the last race with the tandem method applied.

I am very surprised nobody gets Jazil in the readouts.This is an extremely live longshot who will begin to make his move in the 2nd fraction while the pace is collapsing up front. The faster they go the harder he is coming. Look at the 7f race he showed last year as a 2 year old against a 45 half. This is a totally legitimate closer. This is not a strictly 3rd fraction horse. Watch for him.

Brother Derek and Barbaro are not in the top 3 SP horses and are eliminated for win consideration.

Sweetnorthernsaint and Jazil are the win bets looking at the readouts.

Point Determined is the 3rd horse to be used in exacta box.

Here are my 3 screen shots

good luck to everyone and may all the horses return healthy.

First off Welcome to Binder's site.

I am curious how you and Dap could have such vastly different readouts using the same software and same pacelines. In reading both your posts it is clear you both are LONG TIME users of Synergism. This racing really is an amazing thing.

I see Houndog's readouts with Energy! and they are very similar to mine.Being a novice I am greatly encouraged.The point being the readouts are very similar using the SAME pacelines.

Question to both you and Dap if I may. How do you deal with adjustments with that program? I know someone that uses it also and he just enters the raw pacelines. any feedback on what you guys do would be great.he also is a long time user and fairly proficient with it.

Richie

[Dap Daddi]

[QUOTE=Forego]Thank you moderator for the screenhunter. I learn something new every day.
I have used Synergism for years. Here is my Derby.

All pacelines are taken from the last race with the tandem method applied.

I am very surprised nobody gets Jazil in the readouts.This is an extremely live longshot who will begin to make his move in the 2nd fraction while the pace is collapsing up front. The faster they go the harder he is coming. Look at the 7f race he showed last year as a 2 year old against a 45 half. This is a totally legitimate closer. This is not a strictly 3rd fraction horse. Watch for him.

Brother Derek and Barbaro are not in the top 3 SP horses and are eliminated for win consideration.

Sweetnorthernsaint and Jazil are the win bets looking at the readouts.

Point Determined is the 3rd horse to be used in exacta box.

Here are my 3 screen shots

I am very surprised nobody gets Jazil in the readouts.This is an extremely live longshot who will begin to make his move in the 2nd fraction while the pace is collapsing up front. The faster they go the harder he is coming. Look at the 7f race he showed last year as a 2 year old against a 45 half. This is a totally legitimate closer. This is not a strictly 3rd fraction horse.



My thoughts:
It would be hard for me to consider any horse to win or place in the Ketucky Derby with only a maiden win. Jazil record is 6-1-3-0. The Trainer tried him once in a N1X $33k and he ran second. I respect your handicapping but how could one consider Jazil to run in any of the top three finishing posions with only a Maiden win?

In my opinion he closed in the slop to run second. It appears to me that this horse is being rushed. His breeding says he would run well on the slop. But his record on a fast track is still with just a maiden win. If you like him by all means please don't let me talk you off this horse. Again this is just my opinion.

Dap!