V/DC Question

[shoeless]

Ray

Good to know thanks

Jeff

[shoeless]

Ray

Just to make sure you think BL BL is a more important
readout then VDC.


Brian or Dan your input welcome as well, or anyone else that has
a opinion.

Jeff

[Jake]

Probably already embedded in some form.

Jake

[shoeless]

Thanks Mr. Jake nice to see you post here

Jeff

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Ray

Just to make sure you think BL BL is a more important
readout then VDC.


Brian or Dan your input welcome as well, or anyone else that has
a opinion.

Jeff

I agree 100%
BL/BL is by far the strongest indicator of winning ever devised, assuming appropriate pacelines are chosen

VDC is a good indicator, and for some distances at some tracks, is the best indicator - but across all distances and surfaces and tracks, it pales before BL/BL

That is my experience.

[AwesomeAgain]

Originally Posted by DanBoals

I agree 100%
BL/BL is by far the strongest indicator of winning ever devised, assuming appropriate pacelines are chosen

VDC is a good indicator, and for some distances at some tracks, is the best indicator - but across all distances and surfaces and tracks, it pales before BL/BL

That is my experience.

Dan

In the Follow Up #85 page 7. The Multivariates Of Probability Convergence. This is my interpretation of is being written.

Sartin is saying V/DC is not one factor but the final convergence of many weighted factors. It combines velocity, deceleration, energy distribution, and related measurements into one probability ranking. The key is that those inputs are not averaged equally; they are weighted according to how they interact. A horse can rank first in V/DC without leading every individual category because its total profile fits together best. V/DC is therefore the final probability verdict, but only after proper paceline selection gives it valid information.

I would be interested to know what your interpretation of what is being expressed. I could be way off. But it sounds as if he is saying V/DC is a sense the final boss of factors. I have never used any of the old programs but I do use RDSS in Val4 Emulation mode. Would you do me a solid and read it and give me your interpretation. Thanks and appreciate it. Happy 4th of July

Brian

[Lt1]

Hi guys. As someone who models every track I play by dist & surface I can tell you that based on my capping, pl & contender selection that the winner ranks in the top 2 VDC 90 % of the time at all of them.. To me BL/BL is just the lowest odds we should accept for betting purposes.
Tim

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by AwesomeAgain

Dan

In the Follow Up #85 page 7. The Multivariates Of Probability Convergence. This is my interpretation of is being written.

Sartin is saying V/DC is not one factor but the final convergence of many weighted factors. It combines velocity, deceleration, energy distribution, and related measurements into one probability ranking. The key is that those inputs are not averaged equally; they are weighted according to how they interact. A horse can rank first in V/DC without leading every individual category because its total profile fits together best. V/DC is therefore the final probability verdict, but only after proper paceline selection gives it valid information.

I would be interested to know what your interpretation of what is being expressed. I could be way off. But it sounds as if he is saying V/DC is a sense the final boss of factors. I have never used any of the old programs but I do use RDSS in Val4 Emulation mode. Would you do me a solid and read it and give me your interpretation. Thanks and appreciate it. Happy 4th of July

Brian

I spent about 7 weeks with Howard at the end of 99 or thereabouts helping him debug Synthesis. He walked me thru how he handicapped and what he looked at. VDC was not "invented" at that time. He did have DCL and TE which he used in combination as a form of VDC.

He created a variable called SPN which came out of Doc Factor. He named it Sartin Pace Number because he felt it was the most significant thing he had come across. SPN is simply BL/BL.

If the winner were in the top 2 VDC 90% of all races, then people would not have to select 6 horses per race to get the winner in the top 6, they could simply pick and post 2 horses per race with the top 2 VDC and nail 90% to impress and astound their friends. Obviously this does not happen.

Nothing is all encompassing. Howard pointed out that if the 1's and 2's in EPR, LPR and CPR (which are all 3 factors that go into BL/BL) are spread amount more than 4 horses, then it is probably a hard to predict race and you might want to pass it. But barring that, I get more winners in tier 1 of BL/BL, second most from tier 2, 3rd most from tier 3 and a few from tier 4. I seldom play anything below tier 4 unless there is some kind of angle working.

[DanBoals]

This is a pretty ugly race

but you can see from the BL/BL screen what goes into primary line score

EPR, LPR, CPR, TT, HID, FW and FX

these 7 have been with the methodology from the 80's

the line score is how they are ranked on the BL/BL screen
I never look at the BL odds, just the scores and the tier

[ray lopez]

I agree with Dan...To me VDC is not the ultimate readout. BL/BL is the ultimate readout in my opinion.