velocity's partner

[Charlie D]

Yes 6 months

Everyday, ,loads of samples in my databank


Conclusion - Hat concepts do work

It's not rocket sceince

[Charlie D]

I'll quote what i stated and bold the key statement so you can understand

I've practiced Hat concepts for the last 6 months or so at Aqu, SA, Mth, PID, Bel, Pha. DED, HAW, FG and few more tracks


From the above , I know his concepts will work - thats MY evidence and it's all the evidence i need

[Tim Y]

I am reminded of a quotation my late father used to tell me all the time.

"When I was 19 I thought my Dad was the dumbest person around and by the time I turned 21 I was amazed at how much HE LEARNED in those two years."

[Charlie D]

I knoiw i'm probably wasting my time and energy, but i'll just repeat one last time



MY evidence is all I need


OK, bye now and Good Skill

[Tim Y]

One track ONE SURFACE and a lot of changing bias that the e/l made us aware of.


When Woodbine installed Polytrack in August a few seasons back, most of us playing it everyday were pleasantly pleased that the energy distributions of the course were MUCH like the very specific nature that the course had demonstrated BEFORE the installation: IT still had the wildest positive e/l for seven furlongs of any track that any of us followed, and when it got cold that first fall, the flying chunks coming back from the pacesetters were so severe that few, if any horses, dared move up into that kickback. The front end was such a gold mine that little else was winning. The e/l predicted the change and that specific bias that lasted all that Winter.

Came the Spring and my connections there told me about the many complaints (rightly so as many horses were coming back with significant cuts from the frozen bullets flying at them) and how the management had a guarantee with the Polytrack company for satisfaction. During the first few weeks of the early Spring, the course was much like they left it in December but then it began to change as tons of Jelly Cord binder was being added to the surface to keep the kickback to a minimum. Again, the e/l balance almost coordinated TO THE DAY that this was added to the mixture. Also, their website began to note how the track was harrowed each day (as this process is done far less often than on a traditional course)
and, while there was not the one to one correlation as before, a day or two after major POWERING harrows were dug, the e/l predicted how the course had become later.

Now as the track has stabilized it has moved back closer to the energy distributions of the old dirt track, but no longer has the LONG term extreme early bias before the addition of the Jelly Cord.

One track, ONE surface and it influences, ON A DAILY BASIS as to which horses will be favored or which will be also rans,
Reading that bias will give you horses like this one

[Charlie D]

Look , I can cherry pick results too

http://www.paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?p=43030


Does this help make Joe into a winner?? NO

What does?? Joe reading, getting off his arse and putting in some hard graft by practicing and learning the concepts


Now you have bored me enough

Bye

[Tim Y]

following the e/l at a supposed POLYTRACK when it is telling that the front is where it's at SUPPORTS the view that this race predicted. IMPROVING early speed that the TRACK supported an E/L that no rational person would support if that bias were not alive and well

the TRACK, not the horses told you that fix was in winning e/ls' that day of 12.3, 12.5, 5.3, 1.6, 10.4, 15.9 3.6 and 9.1 with a single negative one in a route around -1.6

[Tim Y]

Aqueduct has gone the opposite way as followed by several people all based upon changes in TRACK profile NOT horses as reported by TK the other day:
"I show only 1 true early day
there since they went to the inner, that being 12/28, when the track
was labeled good and drying out. That is usually not the type of
surface that favors the front end, but it did big time that day. Every
other day, the other end of the spectrum, the latest L/E, top MUG
winners have been the more predictive winners. They do have a new
track super, but this is a very drastic change. Even the coldest of
days have not changed things there. (we are sitting today at -27 so I
guess cold is all relative - just about everything closed around here
at that temp today). The coolest temps of the season forecast for New
York this weekend so if that does not bring back the front runners, I
am not sure what will."

Evidence, gleaned by independent assessment has even more validity

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

Aqueduct has gone the opposite way as followed by several people all based upon changes in TRACK profile NOT horses as reported by TK the other day:
"I show only 1 true early day
there since they went to the inner, that being 12/28, when the track
was labeled good and drying out. That is usually not the type of
surface that favors the front end, but it did big time that day. Every
other day, the other end of the spectrum, the latest L/E, top MUG
winners have been the more predictive winners. They do have a new
track super, but this is a very drastic change. Even the coldest of
days have not changed things there. (we are sitting today at -27 so I
guess cold is all relative - just about everything closed around here
at that temp today). The coolest temps of the season forecast for New
York this weekend so if that does not bring back the front runners, I
am not sure what will."

Evidence, gleaned by independent assessment has even more validity

I've been spending some time here going over races for the last four days on the inner dirt.

For the time being, let me report what I show for routes.

DATE--------RACE----BL RANK---DCL RANK---MUTUEL
1/10
---------------1----------5----------4-----------13.40
---------------7----------5----------2------------4.90
---------------8----------3----------2------------26.80
1/11
---------------1---------1------------1----------5.80
---------------5---------2------------1---------13.60
---------------9---------6------------5---------17.00
1/14
---------------1---------2------------2-----------6.60
---------------3---------1------------1-----------8.90
1/15
---------------1----------2-----------2-----------9.90
---------------5----------4-----------1----------11.00
---------------7----------2-----------1-----------9.50
---------------9----------6-----------1----------23.60

All the above routes were whittled down to the top 5 contenders by Total Energy in fields of 9 or less. Fields of 10 or more were finalized to the top six contenders in Total Energy.

Those who limit play to the top two BL horses would have hit in six of the twelve routes. Total cost = $48.00. Yield = $54.30.

Playing the top two DCL horses would have had one collecting in ten of the twelve races. Total cost = $48.00. Yield = $120.60.

I don't suggest at all limiting consideration to DCL rank, but over the past four racing days at AQU, it has been a powerful indicator based upon the way that I pick representative pace lines after usually examining multiple lines for the top contenders.

[Charlie D]

Good work Charles

Conclusion - Doc's Match Up (Incremental Velocity/ Energy Exertion) kicks ass at Aqueduct in routes