Do You Believe - Page 3 - Pace and Cap

Bill V. · 12-31-2012, 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by partsnut

Trotman:
I believe that the original question was serious in nature and had lot's of merit. I think the purpose of the question was to learn from others what they use to achieve a degree of predictability in a majority (not all ) races. I also believe that this subject broaches a degree of individual frustration, futility and sensitivity in many of us.
I believe that most of us take this game very seriously and there are some
that make light of it. To each his own.
It's hard to please everyone and we have to be careful in what we are posting or responding to so that nobody will be offended.

Let's face it, we've all bought things that ended up as worthless.
Some hate to admit this. Hey, I wasted $1600 bucks on RaceCom.
For me, that was a lesson well learned.

I believe we should be tolerant of each other and if we do not understand something we should address it in a civil manner.

The new year is upon us. Let's be kind to one another.

happy new year Bill
Thanks for your reply and your honesty about going down a bad road
I too once wasted a good amount on Always software and data files
I wonder why Ted has stayed away from this
There is no place on Pace and Cap for rudeness

Ted Craven · 12-31-2012, 09:22 PM

People, people ...

On the east coast (and the forests of Muskoka, Central Ontario), the New Years eve party has already started. In DaveEdwards England it's already New Years, in our Aussie friends' world - it's tomorrow and already a brand new, brave New Year.

I am certain that horse racing is predictable, but my certainly ranges from 0% to about 80% or so in any given race. When I am less than 80% certain, I ask for a good price, and when about 50% certain (just estimating 'certainty' here - I presume everyone accepts that) I ask for a very good price, in either the Win/Place pools or in the Exacta pools (personally, and currently).

I think human beings crave certainty, like they crave security: we don't want to be cold, or hungry or imperiled, and we prefer to know for sure if our job is safe, our children safe, our spouses loving, our political leaders sane. But no one can grant us these certainties, or the absolute security we likely felt as newborns. So horse race betting then becomes a contest between deeply felt (and often poorly understood) emotions of greed for the 'prize', fear of loss (or appearing foolish), mixed with degrees of aversion to uncertainty and risk, spiced with desire to feel 'vital', brave, fearless. We want to feel certain in our analysis and bets, and in our life decisions, but no horse race or life situation can offer us this certainty. So we make the trade-offs of accepting relative uncertainty for relative financial compensation (or insurance) for being right or wrong.

Horse race betting is none other than a reflection of human society, human nature - like all other financial markets wherein people vie for advantage, for power, for success.

Trotman - you must feel VERY confident in the tools you have grasped: in Ray Taulbot's methods, in BLAM, in Doc Sartin's and Jim 'The Hat's' teachings - and perhaps (blush) the power of RDSS to get the job done. If everyone felt like you feel, analysed and bet a horse race exactly the same way as you, KNEW in their soul there was no other worthy way to play in horse racing - then there would be no horse racing. There would be no difference of opinion to capitalize on, no one else's money to win in any race.

And I'm not just talking about careless, mindless weekend punters or unilateral adherents of Beyer figures or other public and widely disseminated information - I'm also talking about another strata of intelligent, some very hard-working individuals who either use the very same tools and methods you do but interpret the conclusions differently, or use other serious tools which they are in the process of (hopefully) mastering, or perhaps they witness others having presumably mastered (i.e. to the point of demonstrable, consistent profit).

Decisions like: is that horse returning from a layoff really in form today: is the money bet on it 'smart' or merely 'hopeful' money (some things we cannot know - so we guesstimate: you one way, your friend using the same tools another way). Do you criticize your friend for having a different opinion than you? Do you criticize him for using a different tool than you if you have seen him with your own eyes pull amazing selections out of his bag of tricks, where perhaps you yourself lost the same race? If not, it is because you know and respect the effort your friend makes daily in his passion for racing - a similar passion that you feel?

My point - you tend to not criticize someone you know and whose effort you respect, even if their approach differs from you own. It is also (sadly) natural to criticize (dare I say fear?) what you don't know, someone whose approach is strange to you if you have not closely counted the hours they spend on their craft, or seen the gleam in their eye when they succeed, shared their joy at unraveling the mystery, even if each in your own ways.

OK, I got to go soon, it is New Years eve and I shouldn't be waxing eloquent on a horse racing site. But you cannot say you know the desire, and the sincerity in the hearts and minds of the people you criticize here for trying different tools (perhaps several of them). Your zeal is enviable - BUT, this is not a neighbourhood where we convince our neighbours of their errors by blunt language. We each are not responsible for convincing any other human being of ANYTHING - only for pronouncing our own truth (as I think you said). What we want to do at Pace and Cap, remembering the example set by Howard, and Jimmy and others - is to demonstrate what we know, repeatedly, answer questions, be helpful. To each online community their own, but at this one the tone will be helpful, respectful - or else it will not persist.

You are a blunt, honest (you believe) person, and in person I also know you to be a sincere and capable teacher. But please cut it out with the direct confrontation, or else take it private. Help me make RDSS and the modern state of the Sartin Methodology a driving force in educating new comers, in cutting through the clutter of myriad confusing data. Help me with a Spring 2013 Woodbine seminar. Let's start some planning, how about January, how about at Whitlocks in The Beach, in Toronto. Call me, or write - let's set it up.

I also ask you to respect every member here, if you respect me. I respect JimG, I respect Budman - they are my friends, not because I have met them or toasted with them, but because they have shared their passion with me and left me a little more eager as a result. As have you, my friend. Don't leave Pace and Cap (and don't let yourself get kicked off). You have too much to offer.

Of that I am 100% certain.

Wishing everyone at Pace and Cap a joyful New Year. Teach the newcomers something about why you love horse racing. Grow your own love.

All good things,

Ted

shoeless · 01-01-2013, 07:32 PM

Trotman,

To me this was the best thing that came from your post

If most handicappers would put in as much time handicapping as following these posts we might be getting somewhere.

Jeff

polambi · 01-01-2013, 07:46 PM

Happy New Year to everyone.
I am not a senior at Pace and Cap, or what you would consider a very experienced handicapper. As a matter of fact, I only started playing horses just a couple of years ago. I had the good fortune to join Pace and Cap about a year ago, and I remember the initial introduction of NewPace, made by Ted, just like it was yesterday. He made it very clear that Newpace was not not a mandatory update, and that it was up to each individual member to decide whether they wanted to get Newpace or not. There was no convincing pitch coming from him, other than stating that he did see somthing in Newpace, and that he was open to new ideas. I believe this initial post about newpace is still available on Pace and Cap.
I am happy to report that I am a Newpace user, and I love it. I think Newpace is actually worth much more than what I paid to get it, based entirely on its performance, since I never met or even spoke to Dave. I am glad Ted made the decision to give Pace and Cap members the opportunity to get Newpace.
Now, does Newpace win me every race I play? The answer is no. And it is no surprise to me, because no computer program can do that. Why? Just to name a few reasons: the trackmaster data provided to the program is not always accurate, trainers try to hide their horses' true abilities, horses go through form cycles, jockeys make mistakes, and the best representative pace lines are not always available or chosen by the program's users.
My conclusion is that no matter what our skills levels, or the years or experience handicapping horse races, we simply cannot win every single race that we play. We have to accept this as a fact and deal with it accordingly.
The alternative is to carefully select a few races where we think a couple of horses truly have an edge over the remaining horses. I said "a couple of horses", because I learned from Pace and Cap that it is always better to find two horses you can bet to win, as opposed to just one. This has served me well.
I want to take this opportunity to thank Ted for the good work he's doing with RDSS and Pace and Cap. The level of customer service and leadership he has been providing is beyond my expectations. His commitment to the sharing of knowledge transpires through his posts that I always enjoy reading. I hope he does not change, regardless of the negativity of some posters on Pace and Cap who will never be happy, no matter what.
I also want to thank Dave Schwartz, the creator of Newpace. I want to wish him a happy New year, and thank him for coming up with a great product, and sharing it with us at Pace and Cap for just a few bucks. Newpace never ceased to maze me. Sometimes, it would pick 4 horses in a race, that turned out to be the top 4 finishers. Does it get any better?
Happy New year to everyone. Let's be pickier about which races to play, and which ones to pass in 2013.
Paul.

atkinsrr · 01-16-2013, 03:30 PM

Well said Trotman...the only thing that we really have going for us is our recordkeeping and certain corrolaries and or circumstances leading us to the winner...that's why Doc always had us betting 2 horses to win. Every race is different and even keeping records is sometimes confusing..sometime the records help us and sometimes they don't. Of all the races I handicap I only wager on a small percentage of them due to low odds or other reasons....but in answer to your question I only find a very few races a year where I am certain of a winner..and they are usually a low price...Had a certain winner at SA sunday in R8...#7 Jeranamo..with RDSS he was a complete standout and I made a single win bet on him(very rarely do I only bet one horse)but the pace match up pointed to him...only paid $6.00 in a 7 horse field...but still you are right CERTAINY ??? HE COULD HAVE STUMBLED AT THE GATE OR THROWN HIS RIDER....all we can do is just keep working harder as Doc taught us how to:meditate, visualize, and focus...good luck in 2013 to all !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

12-31-2012, 09:22 PM	#22
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,258	People, people ... On the east coast (and the forests of Muskoka, Central Ontario), the New Years eve party has already started. In DaveEdwards England it's already New Years, in our Aussie friends' world - it's tomorrow and already a brand new, brave New Year. I am certain that horse racing is predictable, but my certainly ranges from 0% to about 80% or so in any given race. When I am less than 80% certain, I ask for a good price, and when about 50% certain (just estimating 'certainty' here - I presume everyone accepts that) I ask for a very good price, in either the Win/Place pools or in the Exacta pools (personally, and currently). I think human beings crave certainty, like they crave security: we don't want to be cold, or hungry or imperiled, and we prefer to know for sure if our job is safe, our children safe, our spouses loving, our political leaders sane. But no one can grant us these certainties, or the absolute security we likely felt as newborns. So horse race betting then becomes a contest between deeply felt (and often poorly understood) emotions of greed for the 'prize', fear of loss (or appearing foolish), mixed with degrees of aversion to uncertainty and risk, spiced with desire to feel 'vital', brave, fearless. We want to feel certain in our analysis and bets, and in our life decisions, but no horse race or life situation can offer us this certainty. So we make the trade-offs of accepting relative uncertainty for relative financial compensation (or insurance) for being right or wrong. Horse race betting is none other than a reflection of human society, human nature - like all other financial markets wherein people vie for advantage, for power, for success. Trotman - you must feel VERY confident in the tools you have grasped: in Ray Taulbot's methods, in BLAM, in Doc Sartin's and Jim 'The Hat's' teachings - and perhaps (blush) the power of RDSS to get the job done. If everyone felt like you feel, analysed and bet a horse race exactly the same way as you, KNEW in their soul there was no other worthy way to play in horse racing - then there would be no horse racing. There would be no difference of opinion to capitalize on, no one else's money to win in any race. And I'm not just talking about careless, mindless weekend punters or unilateral adherents of Beyer figures or other public and widely disseminated information - I'm also talking about another strata of intelligent, some very hard-working individuals who either use the very same tools and methods you do but interpret the conclusions differently, or use other serious tools which they are in the process of (hopefully) mastering, or perhaps they witness others having presumably mastered (i.e. to the point of demonstrable, consistent profit). Decisions like: is that horse returning from a layoff really in form today: is the money bet on it 'smart' or merely 'hopeful' money (some things we cannot know - so we guesstimate: you one way, your friend using the same tools another way). Do you criticize your friend for having a different opinion than you? Do you criticize him for using a different tool than you if you have seen him with your own eyes pull amazing selections out of his bag of tricks, where perhaps you yourself lost the same race? If not, it is because you know and respect the effort your friend makes daily in his passion for racing - a similar passion that you feel? My point - you tend to not criticize someone you know and whose effort you respect, even if their approach differs from you own. It is also (sadly) natural to criticize (dare I say fear?) what you don't know, someone whose approach is strange to you if you have not closely counted the hours they spend on their craft, or seen the gleam in their eye when they succeed, shared their joy at unraveling the mystery, even if each in your own ways. OK, I got to go soon, it is New Years eve and I shouldn't be waxing eloquent on a horse racing site. But you cannot say you know the desire, and the sincerity in the hearts and minds of the people you criticize here for trying different tools (perhaps several of them). Your zeal is enviable - BUT, this is not a neighbourhood where we convince our neighbours of their errors by blunt language. We each are not responsible for convincing any other human being of ANYTHING - only for pronouncing our own truth (as I think you said). What we want to do at Pace and Cap, remembering the example set by Howard, and Jimmy and others - is to demonstrate what we know, repeatedly, answer questions, be helpful. To each online community their own, but at this one the tone will be helpful, respectful - or else it will not persist. You are a blunt, honest (you believe) person, and in person I also know you to be a sincere and capable teacher. But please cut it out with the direct confrontation, or else take it private. Help me make RDSS and the modern state of the Sartin Methodology a driving force in educating new comers, in cutting through the clutter of myriad confusing data. Help me with a Spring 2013 Woodbine seminar. Let's start some planning, how about January, how about at Whitlocks in The Beach, in Toronto. Call me, or write - let's set it up. I also ask you to respect every member here, if you respect me. I respect JimG, I respect Budman - they are my friends, not because I have met them or toasted with them, but because they have shared their passion with me and left me a little more eager as a result. As have you, my friend. Don't leave Pace and Cap (and don't let yourself get kicked off). You have too much to offer. Of that I am 100% certain. Wishing everyone at Pace and Cap a joyful New Year. Teach the newcomers something about why you love horse racing. Grow your own love. All good things, Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

01-01-2013, 07:32 PM	#23
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,655	Trotman, To me this was the best thing that came from your post If most handicappers would put in as much time handicapping as following these posts we might be getting somewhere. Jeff

01-01-2013, 07:46 PM	#24
polambi Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Location: New-York, NY Posts: 138	Happy New Year to everyone. I am not a senior at Pace and Cap, or what you would consider a very experienced handicapper. As a matter of fact, I only started playing horses just a couple of years ago. I had the good fortune to join Pace and Cap about a year ago, and I remember the initial introduction of NewPace, made by Ted, just like it was yesterday. He made it very clear that Newpace was not not a mandatory update, and that it was up to each individual member to decide whether they wanted to get Newpace or not. There was no convincing pitch coming from him, other than stating that he did see somthing in Newpace, and that he was open to new ideas. I believe this initial post about newpace is still available on Pace and Cap. I am happy to report that I am a Newpace user, and I love it. I think Newpace is actually worth much more than what I paid to get it, based entirely on its performance, since I never met or even spoke to Dave. I am glad Ted made the decision to give Pace and Cap members the opportunity to get Newpace. Now, does Newpace win me every race I play? The answer is no. And it is no surprise to me, because no computer program can do that. Why? Just to name a few reasons: the trackmaster data provided to the program is not always accurate, trainers try to hide their horses' true abilities, horses go through form cycles, jockeys make mistakes, and the best representative pace lines are not always available or chosen by the program's users. My conclusion is that no matter what our skills levels, or the years or experience handicapping horse races, we simply cannot win every single race that we play. We have to accept this as a fact and deal with it accordingly. The alternative is to carefully select a few races where we think a couple of horses truly have an edge over the remaining horses. I said "a couple of horses", because I learned from Pace and Cap that it is always better to find two horses you can bet to win, as opposed to just one. This has served me well. I want to take this opportunity to thank Ted for the good work he's doing with RDSS and Pace and Cap. The level of customer service and leadership he has been providing is beyond my expectations. His commitment to the sharing of knowledge transpires through his posts that I always enjoy reading. I hope he does not change, regardless of the negativity of some posters on Pace and Cap who will never be happy, no matter what. I also want to thank Dave Schwartz, the creator of Newpace. I want to wish him a happy New year, and thank him for coming up with a great product, and sharing it with us at Pace and Cap for just a few bucks. Newpace never ceased to maze me. Sometimes, it would pick 4 horses in a race, that turned out to be the top 4 finishers. Does it get any better? Happy New year to everyone. Let's be pickier about which races to play, and which ones to pass in 2013. Paul.

01-16-2013, 03:30 PM	#25
atkinsrr Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 507	Well said Trotman...the only thing that we really have going for us is our recordkeeping and certain corrolaries and or circumstances leading us to the winner...that's why Doc always had us betting 2 horses to win. Every race is different and even keeping records is sometimes confusing..sometime the records help us and sometimes they don't. Of all the races I handicap I only wager on a small percentage of them due to low odds or other reasons....but in answer to your question I only find a very few races a year where I am certain of a winner..and they are usually a low price...Had a certain winner at SA sunday in R8...#7 Jeranamo..with RDSS he was a complete standout and I made a single win bet on him(very rarely do I only bet one horse)but the pace match up pointed to him...only paid $6.00 in a 7 horse field...but still you are right CERTAINY ??? HE COULD HAVE STUMBLED AT THE GATE OR THROWN HIS RIDER....all we can do is just keep working harder as Doc taught us how to:meditate, visualize, and focus...good luck in 2013 to all !!!!!!!!!!!!!!