DMR race 5 Osunitas Stakes

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

I would have won if I used line 4 LOL

No really I lost this race. I did not enter a line for the winner # 4

I alone did not win this race. Why? because of my pace line selections
I welcome any advice on how I could have done better on this one.
Looking to help and looking to learn.

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Thanks Dlivery

Great to see all the comments from many members posting and sharing their insights and perspective about the outcome of this race. We can all learn after the fact...

I missed this race as I had ended up with Top Kisser since he was the #1L/EP and #1 Hidden energy in Bill V.'s readouts. Thanks to the contributions by Bill Lyster, I can see how I might have approach this race in the future. I could have looked more in depth, the E/L differential Graph. Great posts by the way, Bill L.!!

My second contender was Appealing.


I ended up with this as a contender because I thought that this was the third race off the layoff. I thought that the last paceline was her early speed race and the 2nd paceline back was her route race where she ran late. She had the traditional prep races of two sprints into the route race. I thought that she could have continue to improve. But it was not in the cards.

Regarding the winner, Closing Range.



That 4th paceline back was a strong paceline to evaluate, even with the puns intended.

Any horse that can come home under 24 seconds running a mile and a half on turf is a strong contender. We can all see with our eyes that a great mile time of 1:33 or 1:34. What is not so obvious is the apparent soft fractions of the early pace but with a strong last fraction.

I have seen Grade 1 marathon runners who can run the last fractions under 23.0 for marathon races.

The last paceline for Closing Range was a prep race to train the horse to come from off the pace. A lot of trainers aim for big meets. Del Mar is a big meet.

Great comments from everyone....

[lone speed]

I wanted to comment that the 2nd paceline of Closing Range is a lot better than it looks in the past performance lines....

Looking at the result chart for that race on Florida Derby Day on March 30th, we can find similarities with Palace Malice in the Kentucky Derby.

Closing Range in the marathon race ran until the mile and a quarter marker.



Notes:

I missed this race. I am sharing my thoughts and I will always strive to improve my handicapping skills. Thanks for reading...

[Bill V.]

Great work lone Speed

You bring so much good information.
One more thing I was thinking about. It looks like the horse
was based in Indiana It won its Maiden Special race there.
Then they shipped her to Kentucky, Mth and FLA then came home to IND
She ships well winning first try at ELP MTH and CRC

Why not use the IND line 1 as a prep and ship her out to Del Mar
and try for the Ship In and Win Bonus

[Bill Lyster]

Thanks Bill.

Doesn't the result of the 2nd division of the Oceanside Stake make that a horse to watch at longer distances? "Rising Legend" posted an E/L of -21.50 at a mile that is perfect fit for the 8.5 turf distance and not too far off the lone 9F turf race so far.

Good skill to all,

[atkinsrr]

Bill V. comment on DMR race 5 on saturday...I also lost this race...couldn't use line 4 on the #4 horse ....can't use a mile and a half pace line for a 8.5 furlong race...I hid the #5 odds to low and win bet the #6 and #7.....but on the bright side got it back plus some on Jeranimo in the Eddie Read....think that Closing Range was unpickable...just watch for him to come back