Race Analysis Process - One Way Pt 1 of 4

[For The Lead]

Before there is any further discussion regarding "tandems", let me just say tandems are useless. I know there will those who disagree, but wait, I will explain.

Exactly what is it that you are trying to accomplish by using the tandem concept? You don't have to answer...I already know.

Well let me tell you, you're beating a dead horse, so to speak. The tandem concept does not provide enough information for you to accomplish what you think you are setting out to accomplish.

The first thing you don't know when using the tandem concept is, who were ALL OF THE HORSES in that previous race?
How did the horses YOU CAN'T SEE impact the race and influence how your tandem horses ran? YOU DON'T KNOW!
Does today's race have the same match up factors as the previous tandem race. YOU DON'T KNOW!
So what good is the tandem concept?
How does it help you?

Now, you want to know about "thinking"? No problem.
I would like everyone to click on the link below and go read this post.
You will see how Bill V. "thinks" and how his demonstration of evaluating lines and contenders far exceeds the tandem concept.

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8969

[Because I Can Jim]

Hmmmm....Let me see.....
Contenders.....thinking.....tandems....

I get it.....

Contenders - I don't use the definition the same way you do FLT.

Thinking - I went back to the 6f 7th pace line because I do not use class the way you do.

Tandems - I do not think about tandems the same way you do either.

I post in the spirit of cooperation and learning. I am not perfect and am the first to admit it. I know I have much to learn.

My cup is empty when I stand at the feet of the masters.....Yet, even the master will not know what a student is thinking unless the student asks....

Jim

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Because I Can Jim

Hmmmm....Let me see.....
Contenders.....thinking.....tandems....

I get it.....

Contenders - I don't use the definition the same way you do FLT.

Thinking - I went back to the 6f 7th pace line because I do not use class the way you do.

Tandems - I do not think about tandems the same way you do either.

I post in the spirit of cooperation and learning. I am not perfect and am the first to admit it. I know I have much to learn.

My cup is empty when I stand at the feet of the masters.....Yet, even the master will not know what a student is thinking unless the student asks....

Jim

My point is this. There is only one definition for a "contender", therefore a contender in the race is that horse, or horses, that have the best chance of winning the race. There is no alternative view of a contender. Certainly a horse that has been running around the track for the last ten races without finishing 1st,2nd, 3rd or in any other way not impacting on the race is not a contender.

Doc always said the first thing he did before he started to handicap a race was to read the conditions. It was sound advice. How can one effectively handicap a race if you don't know what type of horses you are dealing with. For those out there who do not understand class and conditions, I would strongly urge you to read up on it, ask questions or both.

Naturally you don't view tandems as I do, but, again, the point is to elevate those who wish to improve. By showing them the shortcomings of the tandem concept and offering a better way to accomplish the goal they are trying to achieve, they improve their game. Sure, it is a lot more work, but who said this was an easy game? There are no shortcuts.

I post in the spirit of trying to help people win using tried and true methods.

People tend make what is already a hard game that much harder. I always fail to understand why they don't just start on page one of the methodology and learn from there.

Sure, there are things that the methodology doesn't teach, such as class, conditions, injuries and the effect of those injuries on horses, but they can be learned from other venues.

The recent talk about no right or wrong way, just another way, made me think of something.
The 7th race at MNR on 8.13 was offered here in couple of different ways. The horses are posted earlier in this thread.
Now, for anyone who has been following this thread, we already know the #4 horse won the race. Suppose I picked the WORST line for every horse in the race based on adjusted speed rating. How would it work out? Let's see.






They look like any other screen shots, taken from the best of lines, don't they? If you didn't look at the "original" screen you would never know just how bad the pacelines are. Yet, there is the #4 horse, head and shoulders above the rest on the "TS+F3" screen and second on the "blbl" screen. Maybe this is just one of those races where you get the winner no matter your approach.

So as not to confuse anyone, I would NOT endorse the use of this alternative concept. However, if there is anyone out there who wants to risk their hard earned cash over the next 400 to 500 races using this concept, please post back and let us know how you made out.

[trotman]

FTL dammed straight on making it difficult. What I like to see is some one that would start a thread "Reading Between The Lines" or better yet they should just stay mum and listen.