FPLR - Evangeline Downs - Race 5 - Saturday 7/30/16

[DaveEdwards]

Here is an attachment with the workouts for the 8 (hopefully, not sure if it worked).

[DaveEdwards]

Hopefully this time

[DaveEdwards]

Originally Posted by MikeB

The EVD website has replays too!

When the money is down I had to watch live! I'm no good at sleeping when waiting for a result!!

[Mark]

At one point in the betting the #8 horse got up to 9/1 -10/1. Late money knocked him down to 5/1. However, it is interesting to see that the morning line maker had this horse at 3/1. Possibly the layoff didn't bother him as he or she is used to such layoffs.

I made the horse an EP off that second line. I didn't work those lines from the bottom up as is my normal practice. I use Bradshaw's designations at 1st call:
EP: 2nd or 3rd within 1/2 length
P: 2nd or 3rd within 2 or 3 lengths
SP: 4th or 5th behind the Pressers
S: 6th and further back.

There is a small contradiction in his Early designation as this connotes in the lead. However, I have seen him describe a horse that is usually in the lead at the 1st call but on at least one occasion 2nd by a length. My take is that it is about Energy Exertion. And a normally Early horse that runs from the 2nd position occasionally is still exerting his energy Early.

Workouts: I really don't pay much attention to works at EVD or DeD as there are so many private facilities where their work goes unpublished. I believe this is a circuit that requires a public workout if the horse hasn't run in 60 days. You will see some of the slowest works imaginable to fulfill this requirement. These old boys don't want to tip their hand. But the #8 had 3 published works prior to this start and if you look further back that is the same pattern he had prior to his previous win off the 336 day layoff.

[Mitch44]

The workouts posted now by DaveEdwards are or would have been very helpful to this race analysis. The workout for 3F on 24 May reality jumps off the page at you. The 95 rating is excellent, the rank of first of 4 work outs also but for me the time especially would cinch it. 36:1 indicates both condition and soundness so the layoff becomes a mute point. The "Doc" always said that a horse that works in 12 seconds or so is both sound and in form. He said 12 sec. per furlong was 55:00 feet per second and near racing speed. Not sure if that was at a seminar or written somewhere.

Additionally some horses can be trained up to a race( higher class horses) and some can't stand the rigors of training(cheap ones) and must be raced into shape. Another indication of layoff horses is if they ever ran a good prior race after a layoff as Mark pointed out. It indicated this horse could be trained up to a race. Also a horse that is dropping in class after a layoff is a good sign to include high class horses as many need an actual race to reach peak form. They just get more out of a race through the competition of the race itself than training and are lazy in the mornings.

Mitch44

[Mark]

Pook,
Richie offered to give me some assistance with my Matching skills and not wanting to be too intrusive into his very busy life I sent him 4 or 5 races of which the EVD 5 race was one. My primary criteria was a field with 8 or more betting interests. He liked this race because it had a very clear FPLR horse the #9 horse. As published the FPLR concept is if you can find this horse in a race and that becomes your pace of the race. If after handicapping the race, he meets the variegation and no one can "knock him off", he is your horse. Well, it didn't take too much time to see that the #9 had only won with an open lead at the 1st call and that he was not going to get it today. There were 4 horses that wanted the lead at the first call or shortly thereafter. This was going to be a cavalry charge. We found the #10 with a substantially better 1st fraction, 21.9 and the #4, with a better 2nd call 45.8, I used his 10th line. So with those two times you could see that a 21.9 -45.8 pace was within reason. So you toss the #9 and in my view you toss all the Es and EPs. In my reading I saw something that Jim Bradshaw had said, Pressers in a field like this that want to lay pretty close get sucked into that speed duel too. So in my view the E, EPs and Ps were going to be looking for a place to lie-down turning for home and a one run S type would most likely run down the center of the track and blow by everyone.
This is one of the main reasons why you have to look at all the horses' pacelines. These are the lines I used in this race:

If you stick to the best of the last 3 lines comparable you can't see how the horses Match Up. I used POWER LINES. So you see the #10 horse roar out to a good lead and the #4 catching him and passing him at the 2nd call. You see that the other earlies and pressers can handle this pace. So the race will run OTE and be won by a horse who has position 6 at the 1st call. That is the advanced Match Up as Richie P explained it while being personally taught by the Master, Jim Bradshaw!
Now if you plug in the 6th line for the #8 and notice all the other good things about him he lies 6th and of your final contenders, the 3 S horses, he will be closest to the leader at the 1st Call. He becomes an S horse or demonstrates he can run and win as an S horse and is no longer tossed as being apart of the Early brigade!!
If that is not the Match Up then I don't know what is!

[DaveEdwards]

I just couldn't get away from the 3F fps of the 8. If this was close enough coming into the stretch there was only going to be one result.

As Dick Schmidt has previous said, beware the horse with a strong enough 3F to be able to overcome it's early pace deficiencies.

1, 9 & 10 were pretty much immediate throw-outs for me as per what has been said already. There was definitely enough evidence for these three to be thrown. OTE into matching earlies, & so agree with Mark, this was a matchers race.

Goodnight all!

[Bill V.]

Mark
I felt so bad for you. Your 6 horse was acting up, The jockey refused the ride,
They had to take it back to get a last minute jockey to ride. There was a long delay, I wonder if the horse sensed this was unusual. I wonder if ther was extra tension on the part of the connections, This all was using the 6 horses energy , They finally got the 6 back to the gate but now the 6 was freaking
and would not load into the gate - more wasted energy from being upset,

The 6 walked out of the gate so it was all over ..

It was a interesting race
Thanks
Bill

[Bill V.]

Hi Mitch

The workout pattern about Doc's guideline of 55 FPS or 12 seconds per furlong
is mentioned in PACE MAKES THE RACE page 138 "The Numbers Game"

GS
Bill

[Mark]

Bill,
I've had that happen before on a number of occasions and cancelled my bet. Mostly they run crappy but I have also had them run well and pay well. I am stubborn enough now that I let it ride. What really pissed me off is that I missed that #8 horse. No excuse, sloppy handicapping. I think the layoff and his most recent win as an EP led to me discounting him without really looking him over. I look for horses with deep POWER LINES as a rule so missing that win running Sustained in almost the exact same circumstances is unacceptable to me. Hurts a little less that he wasn't 15/1.
I have the most difficulty when I don't have a line to go back to. Particularly with 2nd or 3rd off a significant layoff. I haven't learned to take pieces of lines and put them together the way "The Hat" did. But I have only been working at this for 3 1/2 years. Thanks for the emotional support. As I mentioned before my handicapping buddy up in Berkeley who I have played the horses with for about 20 years had that $.50cent trifecta twice and if I may say so, he included the #3 off of my analysis. He takes $1800 out of the race and I lose my money.