"The Hat's" Power Lines - Page 4 - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 07-19-2007, 10:21 AM

PERFECT example of when NOT to use a Power Line when it is deep in the horse's past performances.

I got an email early this morning from a friend I worked with a bit regarding the Matchup a few months back. He sent me this horse from yesterday at Del Mar that he had tossed immediately.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) The Power Line for the horse is line 6(checked on left side).
21.1- 44.3- 57.0- 110.0 - Positions 1112

2) Running stlye when he wins or runs 2nd - Early (on the lead)
his 1st call times in those 3 races
22.0
21.1
23.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

One of the questions we have to ask and then answer when considering a "deep" Power Line is:
a) has he changed his running style?

Answer is YES he has. LOOK at the last 3 lines please. What is his POSITION at the 1st call?
5th
4th
7th
the 1st call pace of race in these 3 races
21.3
22.0
21.4

Now check those against the 3 races when he WAS "winning".

Is this the same horse? NO
Has he changed his running style? YES

ok now here is how the Hat taught me in HIS words:
" Rich look to see if an early horse can get on top of fractions in his recent races that he HAS been able to in the past. If he can NOT he has become a SLOW horse. THROW HIM OUT." - Jim Bradshaw

THIS is ONE way of determining NOT to consider a horse's Power Line when it is DEEP in the past performances.

screenshot of the 3 horse who went off favorite and was up the track.

More to come.

Turbulator · 07-19-2007, 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP

2) Running stlye when he wins or runs 2nd - Early (on the lead)
his 1st call times in those 3 races
22.0
21.1
23.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
LOOK at the last 3 lines please. What is his POSITION at the 1st call?
5th
4th
7th
the 1st call pace of race in these 3 races
21.3
22.0
21.4

Very interesting, Rich. I always wondered about that. It really does explain some things. I never really quite knew how to handle those situations.

I want to ask you about the fractions you quoted. They don't seem to match the RDSS fractions posted.

In the first group of three the 21.1 is different, and in the second group of three they are all different from the RDSS screen. It doesn't sound like a big deal, but what am I missing here?

Thanks

mufasa · 07-19-2007, 02:25 PM

" Rich look to see if an early horse can get on top of fractions in his recent races that he HAS been able to in the past. If he can NOT he has become a SLOW horse. THROW HIM OUT." - Jim Bradshaw

Rich:

As to the Match Up this is a great factor to consider when measuring or considering current form or basic ability/speed deterioration in a contender from months past. In the case of the #3 horse it looks like the trainer tried in vain to drop the horse consistently in class but no matter it never showed the ability to run successfully early as previously shown in the power line race. At first when looking at this horse’s pp’s I was thinking perhaps he was just out of form but the steady drops in class with no sign of any early speed seemed to suggest that there is something else going on here. Would you or JB think that sometimes it could be a case of out of form versus a horse becoming inherently a slower animal now?

Thanks,

Robert

RichieP · 07-19-2007, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbulator

Very interesting, Rich. I always wondered about that. It really does explain some things. I never really quite knew how to handle those situations.

I want to ask you about the fractions you quoted. They don't seem to match the RDSS fractions posted.

In the first group of three the 21.1 is different, and in the second group of three they are all different from the RDSS screen. It doesn't sound like a big deal, but what am I missing here?

Thanks

The fractions shown on the RDSS screen are in tenths Steve. The fractions I posted are converted to fifths.

I can convert them quickly in my head so it is no sweat. I was taught in fifths. I match in fifths.

so the 21.1 I listed shows up on RDSS as 21.3(tenths)

RichieP · 07-19-2007, 03:19 PM

[QUOTE=mufasa;At first when looking at this horse’s pp’s I was thinking perhaps he was just out of form but the steady drops in class with no sign of any early speed seemed to suggest that there is something else going on here. Would you or JB think that sometimes it could be a case of out of form versus a horse becoming inherently a slower animal now?
Thanks,
Robert[/QUOTE]

Hi "Mu"
This is gonna sound unreal but it is true. In 13 months of learning Jim's matchup I have NEVER heard him use the word "form" or the term " is he in form?".

I am SERIOUS! I don't think he knows what that is man

He ALWAYS uses terms like
a) slow horse
b) changed his style
c) can NOT get "on top" of fractions he previously could

see that last one Robert? THAT is something he FOCUSES on big time.

Trying to put you guys "in his head" so to speak. Really consider FOCUSING on "c".

Richie

RichieP · 07-19-2007, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbulator

Very interesting, Rich. I always wondered about that. It really does explain some things. I never really quite knew how to handle those situations.

Excellent. Now you DO.

mufasa · 07-19-2007, 05:09 PM

[quote]see that last one Robert? THAT is something he FOCUSES on big time.

Trying to put you guys "in his head" so to speak. Really consider FOCUSING on "c".[end of quote]

Thanks Rich I will concentrate on "c" as you suggest. In anycase after looking at #3's race again I overstated the class drops.

The horse is slower and since he could not get on top of previous faster run fractions out he goes as to today's Match Up. The horse will have to prove to me in future races that he can match the previous good early foot or establish a new early foot time, even though it will most likely be slower then in the past but perhaps as to a new race match up sufficient.

Thanks,

Robert

VoodooFan · 07-19-2007, 07:33 PM

That was not only a Good example, that was a GREAT example, Rich. The Hat's personal tutoring and training is making you an crystal clear teacher and very sharp, on top of your game . That was a G*#D*mn perfect example! To have the MatchUp taught like this and broken down piece by piece, wow, dude's should be soppin this up like fresh buttered biscuits made from scratch hot out the oven and mamma's homemade gravy, A-L-L D-A-Y L-O-N-G , man.....eating 'till you get sick, go to the bathroom, then eat some more. With your teaching style, it's like Mr. Rodger's teaching 1st graders and have them, at the very least, give the so-called "experts" a REAL scare and a run for their money. A gen-U-ine "HAT" protege, dude. VoodooFan

emilio840 · 07-19-2007, 10:03 PM

Hi Richie. I think there was an other example today at Delmar in the 7th race #4 Wanna Runner. I took a good look and threw him out. I just passed that race.

emilio

fasthorses · 07-20-2007, 08:43 AM

Rich, I'd like to add a very big "THANK YOU" to the chorus. This has been an eye opening thread. Your time, "The Hats'" time, and both of your insights are of great value and great interest. Solving these kinds of puzzles has always been one of the great allures of handicapping for me. (Okay, so the money ain't bad either.

)

And to Bill, thanks for providing the vehicle and all your efforts to keep this site humming. (P.S. I spent a lot of time in Mount Freedom as kid when it was mostly cow pastures and woods. No, it wasn't during the 1800's!!)

07-19-2007, 10:21 AM	#31
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Power Line deep in past performances PERFECT example of when NOT to use a Power Line when it is deep in the horse's past performances. I got an email early this morning from a friend I worked with a bit regarding the Matchup a few months back. He sent me this horse from yesterday at Del Mar that he had tossed immediately. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1) The Power Line for the horse is line 6(checked on left side). 21.1- 44.3- 57.0- 110.0 - Positions 1112 2) Running stlye when he wins or runs 2nd - Early (on the lead) his 1st call times in those 3 races 22.0 21.1 23.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- One of the questions we have to ask and then answer when considering a "deep" Power Line is: a) has he changed his running style? Answer is YES he has. LOOK at the last 3 lines please. What is his POSITION at the 1st call? 5th 4th 7th the 1st call pace of race in these 3 races 21.3 22.0 21.4 Now check those against the 3 races when he WAS "winning". Is this the same horse? NO Has he changed his running style? YES ok now here is how the Hat taught me in HIS words: " Rich look to see if an early horse can get on top of fractions in his recent races that he HAS been able to in the past. If he can NOT he has become a SLOW horse. THROW HIM OUT." - Jim Bradshaw THIS is ONE way of determining NOT to consider a horse's Power Line when it is DEEP in the past performances. screenshot of the 3 horse who went off favorite and was up the track. More to come. Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

07-19-2007, 03:19 PM	#35
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	[QUOTE=mufasa;At first when looking at this horse’s pp’s I was thinking perhaps he was just out of form but the steady drops in class with no sign of any early speed seemed to suggest that there is something else going on here. Would you or JB think that sometimes it could be a case of out of form versus a horse becoming inherently a slower animal now? Thanks, Robert[/QUOTE] Hi "Mu" This is gonna sound unreal but it is true. In 13 months of learning Jim's matchup I have NEVER heard him use the word "form" or the term " is he in form?". I am SERIOUS! I don't think he knows what that is man He ALWAYS uses terms like a) slow horse b) changed his style c) can NOT get "on top" of fractions he previously could see that last one Robert? THAT is something he FOCUSES on big time. Trying to put you guys "in his head" so to speak. Really consider FOCUSING on "c". Richie __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

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07-19-2007, 02:25 PM	#33
mufasa Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 310	" Rich look to see if an early horse can get on top of fractions in his recent races that he HAS been able to in the past. If he can NOT he has become a SLOW horse. THROW HIM OUT." - Jim Bradshaw Rich: As to the Match Up this is a great factor to consider when measuring or considering current form or basic ability/speed deterioration in a contender from months past. In the case of the #3 horse it looks like the trainer tried in vain to drop the horse consistently in class but no matter it never showed the ability to run successfully early as previously shown in the power line race. At first when looking at this horse’s pp’s I was thinking perhaps he was just out of form but the steady drops in class with no sign of any early speed seemed to suggest that there is something else going on here. Would you or JB think that sometimes it could be a case of out of form versus a horse becoming inherently a slower animal now? Thanks, Robert

07-19-2007, 05:09 PM	#37
mufasa Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 310	[quote]see that last one Robert? THAT is something he FOCUSES on big time. Trying to put you guys "in his head" so to speak. Really consider FOCUSING on "c".[end of quote] Thanks Rich I will concentrate on "c" as you suggest. In anycase after looking at #3's race again I overstated the class drops. The horse is slower and since he could not get on top of previous faster run fractions out he goes as to today's Match Up. The horse will have to prove to me in future races that he can match the previous good early foot or establish a new early foot time, even though it will most likely be slower then in the past but perhaps as to a new race match up sufficient. Thanks, Robert

07-19-2007, 10:03 PM	#39
emilio840 Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: I live in Toronto, Ontario, can Posts: 220	Hi Richie. I think there was an other example today at Delmar in the 7th race #4 Wanna Runner. I took a good look and threw him out. I just passed that race. emilio

07-20-2007, 08:43 AM	#40
fasthorses Grade 3 Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 50	Rich, I'd like to add a very big "THANK YOU" to the chorus. This has been an eye opening thread. Your time, "The Hats'" time, and both of your insights are of great value and great interest. Solving these kinds of puzzles has always been one of the great allures of handicapping for me. (Okay, so the money ain't bad either. ) And to Bill, thanks for providing the vehicle and all your efforts to keep this site humming. (P.S. I spent a lot of time in Mount Freedom as kid when it was mostly cow pastures and woods. No, it wasn't during the 1800's!!)