Rdss2 & NewPace

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by rmath

Ted , I put in spaces between the vdc and new pace ratings but they apparently did not go thru on my post. Sorry about that. If need be I can resubmit them tomorrow.

Richard,

I tidied up your original table post. Here's the trick to laying out stuff in proper tabular format:

1. use a font with a fixed width like Courier New You can do this in the message editor by highlihgting the block of text you want to work with, then choose the Courier New font from the drop down Font list.

2. wrap 'Code' Tags around your table to preserve the spacing you add to make columns align. In the message editor, with your block of text still highlighted, click on the 'Code Tag' Icon, which looks like this: # ('pound' symbol, or 'hash-tag' symbol).

This will add the message tags [code] around your tabular organized text [/code]. Unless you put your table within this 'Code' block, despite how many blank spaces you add, only 1 blank space will be used and your columns won't line up. You have to put a table in a Code block.

Cheers,

Ted

[Bill Lyster]

I had 218 races tracking VDC at DelMar. I eliminated all morning line horses at 20/1 or greater and got 81% in the top 4 Vdc. Only one winner using this method paid over $40 dollars ($46.40). I did not track place horses with ML>20/1, so I just have a gut feeling on place prices. The ROI was 67% boxing the top 4 in exactas.

An ROI comparison with Rmath's info might provide a little more insight as to the better overall return of the two concepts.


Bill

[rmath]

Bill , in answer to your ? on roir for a 4 horse box using my guidelines. Mine was 1.52.
You stated yours was 67%, so using your guidelines appears slightly better than mine.
My goals were to see if I could get at least 80+ % of all the horses paying4/1 and above. So far I have accomplished that goal. Now I am trying to get these in my top 2 or 3. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.
rmath

[Bill Lyster]

Richard:

here are a few things that helped narrow the contenders.


1. If at any time a top two VDC showed up near the bottom of the array, I kept those VDC 1 and 2 horses no matter what their total energy. I eliminated others outside the top 4 VDC in these races.
2. Dirt horses in turf races with #5 DCL should be eliminated and vice versa. So when ever you have to take a line from another surface, be wary of the VDC number if the deceleration rank is 5 or lower. Some of these horses get listed in the top 3 VDC, but the decel becomes important. You can also see how far back the horse projects from the Segments screen and then combine the lengths back with the decel info compared to the other highest ranked contenders.

3. Early horses or horses that have the lead at the second call, should be in the top 3 TS (total speed) rating; also look to TS+F3 placement. You can find the TS rating on the velocity screen and unless the contenders are really close together in TS you can discard a lot of early horses ranked below 3.


Test with your info before adopting. It works for my style of line selection and other stuff.

Bill

[rmath]

I have been using New Pace and Vdc and thought you guys &gals might appreciate my findings.
105 races; top4vdc 88 wins 84% 62 exactas 59%
NP 77 win 73% 52 exactas 49.5%
When you combine the two sets you get 68 wins 65% and 34 exactas 32%
I usually end up with 2 and sometimes 3 horses in the combined group.
If only2 then I bet both to win if odds are acceptable.
When I have 3 I play the 2 with the highest acceptable odds.
Any remaining horses that are singles are only bet as savers if they are 20/1 or higher, there were 5 winners in this group 80.50, 54.60, 42.40, 57.60 and 78.00.
rmath

[Bill Lyster]

Very nice Richard, thanks for the info.


Bill

[BJennet]

[QUOTE=rmath;75592]I have been using New Pace and Vdc and thought you guys &gals might appreciate my findings.
105 races; top4vdc 88 wins 84% 62 exactas 59%
NP 77 win 73% 52 exactas 49.5%
When you combine the two sets you get 68 wins 65% and 34 exactas 32%
I usually end up with 2 and sometimes 3 horses in the combined group.
If only2 then I bet both to win if odds are acceptable.
When I have 3 I play the 2 with the highest acceptable odds.
Any remaining horses that are singles are only bet as savers if they are 20/1 or higher, there were 5 winners in this group 80.50, 54.60, 42.40, 57.60 and 78.00.
rmath[/QUOTE

Hi Rich,

Appreciate you willingness to share your results. Since I believe you have 400 or 500 in this survey, by now, I was wondering if, at some point, you could give us the overall stats: hit rate by rank for both RDSS and NP, and ROI for both. If this too much additional work, no problem. Time as at a premium for everyone.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[rmath]

Bjennet, here are the figures you asked for;
vdc
1 7.86
2 8.98
3 9.40
4 10.68

New Pace
E1 8.85
E2 10.12
L1 7.66
L2 10.25

These are the average mutuals for each rank for 505 races.
All have increased a little over the averages previously posted due to several payoffs above 50.00 in each catagory.

Hope this helps
rmath

[rmath]

505 races
vdc
1 183 .36
2 116 .23
3 86 .17
4 48 .10

332 exactas .66

New Pace
E1 125 .25
E2 81 .16
L1 101 .20
L2 65 .13

251 exactas .50

BJ. I neglected to put all the data together in one post.

Rdss outperforms New Pace in both wins and exactas.

[BJennet]

Hi Rich,

Much thanks for this summary. Looks like the hit-rates for RDSS are virtually unchanged, while the ROI keeps improving. However the win probability distribution among NP contenders seems to be favoring E1 and L1 more than before, although the total win probability is unchanged.

Most amazing to me continues to be the ROI of #1 V/DC - even after adjusting for the take, it's producing a flat-bet profit of 1.22. I would guess that using a 5/2 minimum, that ROI might come close to doubling. If anyone is looking for a simple betting metric, this is it.

Thanks again for all your work.

Cheers,

B Jennet