Valm Question

[tom]

If you are using 3 year best times in older programs, here are the new ones for Keenland, based on the new poly track only, as of last fall:

DIRT

6.0 108.69
6.5 114.49
7.0 121.50......about 7.0 124.38
8.5 141.70
9.0 148.97
10.0 205.02

TURF

8.0 134.14
8.5 141.79
9.0 148.42

[socantra]

Originally Posted by tompkins

That older post quoted above was from the program Validator.

What older post are you referring to? If you are talking about the one you quoted from Guy, you are mistaken.

The "new" program Guy was referring to was Speculator. I remember him making the same pitch to me several times over the phone. Guy did not believe in the variable beaten lengths concept used in the energy programs. In his view it promoted inferior horses.

When he produced Speculator he went back to the fixed beaten lengths concept of the velocity programs, though he used 8.3 (or so) instead of 10 feet.

The 7.5 beaten length rule/guideline never applied to Speculator. Guy told me that Doc added it when he (Guy) kept showing him bad horses who were getting good readouts in Validator because the variable beaten lengths used did not sufficiently penalize them for how far back they were.

Dick

[admin]

Since I asked I will show a very current example

Here is the Santa Anita Derby

Before I get started. I posted the race at about 8 am yesterday morning
in the selections area in Ramons thread

You can see I didn't even enter the winner This time APV and CR
and using the best of the last 3 Speed ratings less than 7.5
all failed me

You know what I would have lost the race. If I had not been sitting
in a freezing cold Yankee Stadium watching ARod hit a walk off
Grand Slam in the bottom off the ninth ...

So anyway lets take another look

here is the winner

Had I used a line at all ( I did not because of the APV/CR and)
I would have used line 2

[admin]

Ok so I say let me see what happens if I use line 1
I can use it in this example maybe a line over 7.5 might win
because I see the Very fast early pace it ran and its 86 speed rating is
alright for this field
when I projected the pace of the race for the second call I figured
111.0 The actual was 111.2

[admin]

alright so I put in line 1 for horse 9
and here is the 3 Total Energy and Primary line score screen(3)

weee look my line is not as good as the line with over 7.5 BL
could I be wrong lets hide line 2 and see how line one rates

[admin]

so now I hide any horse that is over 5 total energy and 5 Primary
line score

So I now hide the One and The Three

[admin]

That line 1 now makes the top 5

Here is the BLBL

ok would I bet it ?? No ......
Not in tier 5 with a balance of 9 sorry

look at the BLBL notice anything
The 9 and 2 who is top rated caome out of a tandem race .

So now things change
But for now the 9 is tier 5

l

[admin]

Ok since I put in the 9 horse only after the fact
i am also putting in the other horse in the tandem the 4
another horse who I ignored because of APV and CLass

[admin]

now here is everyone again
I will do the same deal .hide those that are over
5 total Energy and PLS

[admin]

so those who go are
first is line 2 for horse 9