Auto paceline templates /Betting real money testing it

[Bill V.]

15 races

Hi Rich

You know me better than anyone here'
with my ability lets say tomorrow morning I woke up and said I'm going to auto select my lines base on the guidelines you have used in these most recent 15 races
Rough guess How long would it take me to
1. scan the cards to find races that you have determined give you an optimal chance to win
2, select the lines that fit your template
3. hide or make the track, race and program numbers for
horses that you will enter into your online betting system
4. lastly place the 15 (or more) races bets

Just a rough idea.. I have about 30- 45 minutes time in the morning
from about 5.00 am to 5.45 am could I do it ?
Of course I can't really do this because in New Jersey it 4 njbets only and they have no "only over 9/2 bets system"

anyway If they did, could I do it in 45 minutes ??

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

15 races

Hi Rich

You know me better than anyone here'
with my ability lets say tomorrow morning I woke up and said I'm going to auto select my lines base on the guidelines you have used in these most recent 15 races
Rough guess How long would it take me to
1. scan the cards to find races that you have determined give you an optimal chance to win
2, select the lines that fit your template
3. hide or make the track, race and program numbers for
horses that you will enter into your online betting system
4. lastly place the 15 (or more) races bets

Just a rough idea.. I have about 30- 45 minutes time in the morning
from about 5.00 am to 5.45 am could I do it ?
Of course I can't really do this because in New Jersey it 4 njbets only and they have no "only over 9/2 bets system"

anyway If they did, could I do it in 45 minutes ??

Hi Bill
Those 15 races soup to nuts is 3 1/2 hours - 4 hours

a full Saturday of 40 races or so is 9-11 hours

The reason it takes so long is the paceline eventually chosen has passed 3 crietria or different stages to get picked.

Thats the big difference time wise Bill.
A race that takes me 1 minute to pick lines for using blf 7.5 or less might take 15-20 minutes this way cause I have to keep stuff in my head

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Hi "B"
This is awesome stuff!

I was on the phone with Barb when I read your post and she told me she also favors total energy so she is for sure checking your post out going forward.

I'm definitely checking it out and I love your minimum odds layout cause unless you are getting a 3/1 on a strong top rank buck I can't make money on lower odds horses. Just going "gut feel" your odds minimums shown are totally in my comfort zone

Thanks for sharing and I will definitely let you know what I see going forward a bit

Tu Salute "B"!

Hi Richie,

Hope those results can be of some use. Just wanted to add that most of this sample was taken from the NY and CA circuit tracks, Woodbine, Monmouth, with a few additional mid-level tracks. TE is extremely effective at the bigger tracks, especially SA, HOL, and WO, and worked very well at GP during the winter. I'm not completely sure that these results could be extrapolated to smaller tracks, which may be less well-maintainted and be running more erratic animals, even at the same class levels.

One phenomenon I found at some lower-level tracks, and would like to explore more, is 'TE-clustering', that is many races at these places seem to have horses with extremely bunched TEs, to the point where it can't be used a separator. My take on this is these are horses of very equal ability where the winner is the horse who happened to 'wake up' that day, or where other factors have greater significance. But as I said, this is an area for further exploration maybe for those who play or know these tracks well.

This probably goes without saying, but TE doesn't work as well with racing surfaces and tracks which are either extremely early or late, which seem to me to comprise about 15% of races.

Best of luck to you and Barb.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by BJennet

Hi Richie,

Hope those results can be of some use. Just wanted to add that most of this sample was taken from the NY and CA circuit tracks, Woodbine, Monmouth, with a few additional mid-level tracks. TE is extremely effective at the bigger tracks, especially SA, HOL, and WO, and worked very well at GP during the winter. I'm not completely sure that these results could be extrapolated to smaller tracks, which may be less well-maintainted and be running more erratic animals, even at the same class levels.

One phenomenon I found at some lower-level tracks, and would like to explore more, is 'TE-clustering', that is many races at these places seem to have horses with extremely bunched TEs, to the point where it can't be used a separator. My take on this is these are horses of very equal ability where the winner is the horse who happened to 'wake up' that day, or where other factors have greater significance. But as I said, this is an area for further exploration maybe for those who play or know these tracks well.

This probably goes without saying, but TE doesn't work as well with racing surfaces and tracks which are either extremely early or late, which seem to me to comprise about 15% of races.

Best of luck to you and Barb.

Cheers,

B Jennet

Morning B
Well Barb and myself found 3 races last night to look at using your outline:
Penn 5th
Mnr 7th
Mnr 8th

I haven't heard from her yet but it was very profitable as your minimum odds requirements per ranking only produced 2 plays from the 3 races and 1 very nice winner:

Mnr 7th - #5 (#1 total energy off last line. why big price? going up in company off sharp win) WINS $15.20

Definitely something to check out here and again thank you for sharing. The very best vibes to you and yours

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

15 races

Hi Rich

You know me better than anyone here'
with my ability lets say tomorrow morning I woke up and said I'm going to auto select my lines base on the guidelines you have used in these most recent 15 races
Rough guess How long would it take me to
1. scan the cards to find races that you have determined give you an optimal chance to win
2, select the lines that fit your template
3. hide or make the track, race and program numbers for
horses that you will enter into your online betting system
4. lastly place the 15 (or more) races bets

Just a rough idea.. I have about 30- 45 minutes time in the morning
from about 5.00 am to 5.45 am could I do it ?
Of course I can't really do this because in New Jersey it 4 njbets only and they have no "only over 9/2 bets system"

anyway If they did, could I do it in 45 minutes ??

Hey Bill I have an idea.
I can email you the night before the races I would look at. They are basically the bread and butter open claiming races and starter alw races at the tracks.

NO:
maidens
1 line horses
stakes bucks
real oink oinks
etc etc

Virtually every horse in every race has 10 pacelines in the pps. Many of the races have very full fields also.

Forget my template, minimum odds stuff etc. You have known me for over a decade. I bore easily and have to do other stuff

Use your bl3 or whatever method YOU favor and take that 30 minutes and work some races, see what shakes

Remember "Macker" at the Big M? "There will be more! Wooooo"



These are today's races fwiw
aqu - 8
ded - 8.9
gg - 2.3.6
haw - 3.4.9
kee - 5.9
lrl - 2.3
osa - 5
pen - 2.7
suf - 1.2.3.4.5.7.8
wo - 1.3.5

[Bill V.]

Thank You Rich

This is great !!!

Hey Rich

I worked race 7 myself
Look at the POR the 5 ran in the last race

Using Val 4 mode The adjusted speed rating is a 92
I thought this was out of wack but I checked RDSS
and the raw POR time and Fastest pace last race the 5 was a bet !!

Thank you to everybody ..
nothing like reading listening using and winning

Bill

[jms62]

Originally Posted by BJennet

Hi Richie,

Glad to see the excellent work is going forward. I just wanted to throw in a study I did of TE over the last few months that's a slightly different take on the autopaceline concept, in case some aspect of it might be useful.

I mainly began this to check what seemed to me to be the improved performance of TE, having switched from SpecPa to Spec 160. Filtering out races for 2yos, 3yos, all maidens, and all races under 10k, I selected pacelines by the standard Sartin best (TE for this study) of last three, same distance, same surface.

Over 1140 races (but with little change after the first 200), these were the win rates by TE rank:

1. .38
2. .25
3. .21
4. .10
5. .05

This confirmed to me that one of the big improvement of this software over earlier Sartin software whose results Doc tabulated in the later Follow Ups, is that it clusters more winners among the top 3 TE ranks. If you go through the many worksheets posted in the Follow Up, you find that the hit rates of the Top BL/BL horses (which are basically ranked by TE) taper off much more gradually.

As far as the average mutuel of the top three, by TE rank:

1. $7.40
2. $10.00
3. $12.20

This confirmed for me a truth that your study also seems to be finding, and that Doc asserted in one of his more honest Follow Ups, that most of the profits from using the methodology could only be found in about 20% of races. And that was 10-15 years ago, when prices were better. I would say that now, it's about 15% (talking only about win betting).

However the upside is demonstrated by your results. If you set minimum odds a bit higher, the profits are still there. When Guy first talked to me about the Spec software, he told me that by cherrypicking tracks and only playing horses at odds of 6/1 or greater, he was making 200% profit. I wondered if he had gotten hold of some medical marijuana. But after I began to see the average mutuels (which didn't change much) during my early period of my study, I simply adjusted the minimum odds at about two ticks above hit rate - TE- 1. 3-1 TE 2.5-1, and TE 3. 7-1. The results over 1140 races- 200% ROI. What's really strange about this is that it produced nearly the exact same ROI at each rank, even though there were many more plays for TE -1 than the other two. Now obviously this could be an outlier, but there was very little variance in the results.

I'm putting this out there so that if you or anyone else who's interested, can check this out against their own results and see if you get anything similar.

Best of luck.

Cheers,

B Jennet

This post gets my vote for best post ever since I have been following these threads. No BS, No alchemy just science... Great work

[RichieP]

Morning Ted
Is this the day by day breakdown thing you wanted?

Btw I see 6 winning days and 2 losers. The 17th I had to stop entering horses as there was stuff that came up here and the day as a whole was aborted. BUT bets were put in and that's what is shown

here are the 1st 4 sessions

[RichieP]

the last 4 sessions bring things to today

[Ted Craven]

Pretty consistent, Rich - 1 small down day and 1 really down day, but that one was bookended by 2 doozies. This should give you a good sense of consistency.

At any of the tracks, the win unit could have been $20 instead of $2 with no loss of odds. Probably also at least $50 for most of them.

Keep up the good work Rich!



Ted