Penn Natl Race 5 12/18

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

HAT used ALL running lines to pick his horses and he did use Class

Thxs Charlie..You just woke up my brain on this..in his book ..Hat threw out horses that had a few races after the maiden win and didn't show much...but i believe that was the extent on class..not sure but positive about the maiden win

mike

[justin13892002]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

HAT used ALL running lines to pick his horses and he did use Class

I thought I head Jim say on one of the tapes he doesn't look at Jockey,Trainer, or Class.

I must have misunderstood him then if I heard it wrong.


Mike, I am basically the boss lol. Not really lol, but I can bet at work during breaks, because the company policy is as long as you're off the clock, it is your free time. I just can't use the company computer to do it.

I will post up another race, for today.

[Charlie D]

The HAT using Class

I broke my maiden playing OP and learned in years past to ignore horses from cheaper tracks. Sure, they win sometimes, but in reality cheap horses win cheap races. (This applies to other tracks.) Always look "deep" into the past performances and find tracks where the horse has won. If the horse is from BRD and has never run competitive at OP, chances are the will not win today.

Hat

[justin13892002]

Not much running today. I really hate Penn National sometimes, but I guess its where we have to go for todays post.

PENN NATIONAL 12/22
RACE 3

1: Go 2 back, that race was at todays distance.
2: Last out, that race was at todays distance.
3: Last Out, that race was at todays distance.
4: Go 2 back, that race was at todays distance.
5: Go 3 back, that race was at todays distance.
6: No race at todays distance. Use best beyer.
7: Go 3 back, that race was at todays distance.
8: No race at todays distance. Use best beyer.
9: No race at todays distance. Use best beyer.
10: No race at todays distance. Use best beyer.
11: Go 4 back, that race was at todays distance.



Going to try something new today. My method using 4F-6F calls have worked excellent for routes, but not so much for sprints. What I am noticing, is using the method using 2F and 4F calls for 5.5 furlong races and under work better. So I will attempt that today. So we will use the 2F and 4F calls for all horses. If we get down to 2 or 3 horses, then the 5 Furlong call can be brought in.


1---22.15---45.31----Lost 10
2---22.47---46.68----Gained 4
3---22.34---46.07----Lost 17
4---23.12---46.08----Lost 3, but was 17 lenghts back at 2nd call.
5---23.30---47.70----Lost 4
6---22.92---47.76----Lost 2
7---22.96---47.25----Lost 5
8---22.07---46.56----Gained 3
9---22.84---45.95----Lost 4
10--22.94---47.26----Gained 3
11--22.19---45.33----Even


I would eliminate 5-6-7 off the bat for losing ground at the slowest 4F calls. I would then eliminate the 3, for losing so much ground. Also, eliminate the 4, with a slow 1st 1/4, the horse was 17 lengths back.

Now down to 1-2-8-9-10-11. Still needing to eliminate 2 more horses. The 10 gained lengths, but against VERY slow 4F call, and is now eliminated.

Out of the 5 horses left, the 1 and 9 are the only horses to lose ground. The issue is both were the fastest calls of the field. I will eliminate the worst of those 2 horses now though. The fractions were almost the same, with the 1 racing against the faster of the 2 horses by about 3/5 of a second. Problem is the 1 lost 6 more lengths than the 9. Thats roughly over a second. The 1 is eliminated.

Top 4 horses are 2-8-9-11. The 9 horse will be scratched, as the horse raced yesterday. Leaves 2-8-11 as the top 3.

In the selected race, the 2's race went 5F in 100.42. The 8's selected race went 5F in 59.28. The 11's race went in 57.67.

My selection for this race would be 8 With 2-11.

If I ran the race using my old method, I would have had 8 With 7-11. So both picked up solid horses....


Good Luck

[justin13892002]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

The HAT using Class

But is that eliminating a horse for the class the horse has won or lost at?? Thats what I mean about class. In the excerpt you sent, it looks like Jim is saying look at the TRACKS the horse has ran at, not so much whether horse is dropping from 40 claimer to 10 claimer...

[mikesal57]

justin..tweak it baby, you never know

mike

be in here later

mike

[Charlie D]

Class is ability, hence the correct statement here.

Cheap horses win Cheap races

His capping of thousands of races told him which horses from which races transfered and which did not and knowing that is how you eliminate horses and identify TRUE contenders.


From using the WHOLE PP you create a Picture of a horse and this Picture tells you what it is capable of. This Picture is then atched Up to other Pictures and one or the other is eliminated until your left with the TRUE contenders in todays race.

I pick horses not Pacelines

The Hat.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Class is ability

The Hat.

CLASS IS ABILITY.
Ok, then ability equals time, since it stands to reason that the horse with the most ability runs the fastest time.
So then;
Class = ability
Ability = time
Best time = classiest horse with the most ability
Best time = best speed rating, since speed ratings are based on time
Therefore, we are looking for the horse with the best speed rating, since that represents the horse with the best time, best ability and best class.
True?

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

From using the WHOLE PP you create a Picture of a horse and this Picture tells you what it is capable of. This Picture is then atched Up to other Pictures and one or the other is eliminated until your left with the TRUE contenders in todays race.

The Hat.

I do not use “the match up”, but from reading various posts I have understood it to mean that one is suppose to be matching one horse against another based on how each horse runs against a preset time at each call. In the end, the horse that runs the best against those times is the fastest horse and therefore the winner of the race. If this is incorrect, then I misunderstood.

However, now I read what you posted and you say that you look at the “whole” past performances for each horse and create a picture of what each horse is capable of. Further, that you do this for each horse in the race. You then compare one horses’ “picture” to another horses’ “picture” and eliminate horses based on their individual “pictures” until you narrow the race down to one horse, which should then be the winner of the race. That sounds very reasonable, however, I am left with a question. The old saying is, “a picture is worth a thousand words”. Perhaps in fewer words than that, could explain what we are looking for in each picture?

[Charlie D]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

CLASS IS ABILITY.
Ok, then ability equals time, since it stands to reason that the horse with the most ability runs the fastest time.
So then;
Class = ability
Ability = time
Best time = classiest horse with the most ability
Best time = best speed rating, since speed ratings are based on time
Therefore, we are looking for the horse with the best speed rating, since that represents the horse with the best time, best ability and best class.
True?

Not really, as the best speed rating was in all probability achieved in a Match Up that will not be repeated or even come close to being repeated except maybe with high class/ability horses.