e/l relativity - Page 5 - Pace and Cap

tompkins · 03-11-2006, 01:49 AM

this is not new, but this is just a new WAY to find it via OUR readouts that others don't have.

Quirin wrote about it and now with have Quirin Points.

Steve Klein wrote about it as in this review:" What Klein provides is not the Rosetta Stone of racing, but rather an affirmation of what critics will say we already knew--early speed is the universal bias in racing.But Klein goes further.He doesn't just prove up early speed's influence, he provides a solid (if in-artful) way of determining how a race will shape up by the first call.His surprisingly simple formula makes the Quirin Speed Point obsolete. I highly recommend this book to horseplayers, especially those advanced enough to understand the significance of the scale of Klein's study.Any expert horseplayer that can put aside the arrogance of his close-minded commitment to his own hunches, rules, and opinions can undoubtedly benefit from this treatise and avoid the inevitable award of stubborn inflexibility--a slow, grinding loss at the track. The statistics in this book overwhelmingly establish what should have been known by any horseplayer worth a two dollar bet--find the speed in a race and you are a length away from the winner."

jms62 · 03-11-2006, 03:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tompkins

maybe on the lines YOU picked. People rarely pick the same lines. I NEVER pick a single line for a race and did not bet the 5th or the 7th so can't comment on that.
You are assuming we are looking at the same pace lines and I doubt that seriously as I use an idea called an "early filter" even after several lines are chosen

I pick best of the last 3 at a comparable distance within the horses normal E/L profile Doc... Am I wrong ?

admin · 03-11-2006, 05:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

I pick best of the last 3 at a comparable distance within the horses normal E/L profile Doc... Am I wrong ?

Yes and also adding a bit of
comperable compitition factor

GS
Bill

admin · 03-11-2006, 05:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tompkins

A simple yes or no without the personality digs would have been more constructive BILL...It's simply an idea to take or leave NOT a popularity contest. this idea, if coming out of the "inner group" would not have been made with such biased evaluation choices.

Reminds me a lot of when my late wife and I tried out for The Newlywed Game in 1969. You had to give one of 4 answers to questions and they would stack the deck against you : i.e.. "My mother in law is MOST like" 1) a pig 2) a snake 3) a cow 4) a cockroach....We lost out becasue we refused to answer ANY of the choices when posed like that. Your survey is set up EXACTLY THE SAME WAY: to insure it makes this look bad, with few choices there positive.

Tim I set up the poll with Yes and No to a degree

You should be happy with the results so far
I added the expanded questions to generate discussion
I am hoping that the expanded questions will show those who are interested in this topic which is one of the most viewed ever
the full benifit of your method
If it was a popularity contest then yes and no would be fine

I also select not to show names of posters who voted
I have no idea either ... I don't want to know
I will tell you I voted for # 2 Its not presented properly
I don't see what is being described ..

Thats it for now Im not saying anything good or bad
since I still don't seee what your showing because your description is
not helping me The screen shots and results are not giving me a feel
for what your saying

my suggestion is a full step by step of how you do a race
after the fact is fine The follow up is full of after the fact
races
I don't need the philly file .I will do the race you just showed
however you posted that it was from Today?
I checked and can't find any race 6 winners for the last 8 cards from race 6 named Ronnigan
This is why I voted for # 2

Which day/race are you showing
Thanks
Bill

Ted Craven · 03-11-2006, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by admin

Which day/race are you showing
Thanks
Bill

I believe Tim's original post (the title) said it was PHA Jan 18, 2006, race #6. (ran 8-2-1)

Ted

tompkins · 03-11-2006, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

I pick best of the last 3 at a comparable distance within the horses normal E/L profile Doc... Am I wrong ?

There is NO right NO wrong ONLY DIFFERENT WAYS TO USE THE SAME TOOL

ONE of OUR many differences: I use a choice of best ot last three comparable and then a SECOND qualifier. It is TWO lines, often MORE, that gives me these horses. I look for the TREND of the lines NOT basing conclusions on the possilbe SAMPLE error of a single line no matter how good that ONE looks.

I sincerely believe that this shows a horse's "improving early speed" or something akin to that or possibly the ABILITY to have run to an earlier energy distirbution that OTHERS in the race do not have.. That is a classic handicapping factor.

This has been a corollary to that other idea I published of using the top five EPR's in exotics once the outrageous ones have been dismissed. It is all in the same vein.

tompkins · 03-11-2006, 03:01 PM

8-7-1 e/l relativity to all three finishers

gm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
8 Ruling Star Norberto Arroyo, Jr. 10.40 4.80 2.70
7 Atfirst Blush Ramon A. Dominguez 5.40 2.80
1 One Tough Dude Alan Garcia 2.10
Also ran: 3 - Luke's Flash , 6 - August Song , 2 - Allisons Smile , 5 - Cat's a Rockin

TOP FOUR FINISHERS

tompkins · 03-11-2006, 04:05 PM

can't make this up in the Aqueduct 7th

6-4-9 although THIS one was not the greatest BETTING race.
6 Backchat Jose A. Santos 3.00 2.20 2.10
4 Interline Ramon A. Dominguez 3.50 2.50
9 Bredwinner Richard Migliore 4.10
Also ran: 1 - Upthecreekwithali , 3 - Pleasant Fiction , 8 - Elements , 7 - Colonial Silver , 5 - Tech Valley

tompkins · 03-11-2006, 04:50 PM

The Toboggon today at Aqueduct the 4 got mugged and was steadied then checked hard but the "second string" e/l's came through as the top two finshers.

8th race - Aqueduct - March 11, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
1 Kazoo 13.00 6.40 4.70
2 Bishop Court Hill 4.20 3.20
6 Wild Jam 3.50

$2 Exacta 1-2 43.80
$2 Trifecta 1-2-6 132.50

tompkins · 03-11-2006, 05:50 PM

I want to reiterate someting I stated earlier in that I tend to LOOK FOR TRACKS that support this internal "order within chaos," and NOT having TRIED to DIS-PROVE it, I have not looked at tracks too long where it did not work as well. So far it has worked at about 15.

No angles are universal. One looks to find what the crowd does not see at a venue they are comfortable with.

View Poll Results: What is your opinion of E/L Relativity ?
It is a good tool -Something I will include in my decision making procedure	10	52.63%
Its not presented properly I don't see what is being descriped	3	15.79%
The creator is trying to help the group	1	5.26%
The creator is full of it	5	26.32%
Its interesting But I am realy just reading to see the creator dodge and tap dance around questions	1	5.26%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 19. You may not vote on this poll

03-11-2006, 01:49 AM	#41
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	this is not new, but this is just a new WAY to find it via OUR readouts that others don't have. Quirin wrote about it and now with have Quirin Points. Steve Klein wrote about it as in this review:" What Klein provides is not the Rosetta Stone of racing, but rather an affirmation of what critics will say we already knew--early speed is the universal bias in racing.But Klein goes further.He doesn't just prove up early speed's influence, he provides a solid (if in-artful) way of determining how a race will shape up by the first call.His surprisingly simple formula makes the Quirin Speed Point obsolete. I highly recommend this book to horseplayers, especially those advanced enough to understand the significance of the scale of Klein's study.Any expert horseplayer that can put aside the arrogance of his close-minded commitment to his own hunches, rules, and opinions can undoubtedly benefit from this treatise and avoid the inevitable award of stubborn inflexibility--a slow, grinding loss at the track. The statistics in this book overwhelmingly establish what should have been known by any horseplayer worth a two dollar bet--find the speed in a race and you are a length away from the winner." __________________ velocititian Last edited by tompkins; 03-11-2006 at 01:55 AM.

03-11-2006, 03:01 PM	#47
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	another ROUTE where it worked 8-7-1 e/l relativity to all three finishers gm Horse Jockey Win Place Show 8 Ruling Star Norberto Arroyo, Jr. 10.40 4.80 2.70 7 Atfirst Blush Ramon A. Dominguez 5.40 2.80 1 One Tough Dude Alan Garcia 2.10 Also ran: 3 - Luke's Flash , 6 - August Song , 2 - Allisons Smile , 5 - Cat's a Rockin TOP FOUR FINISHERS __________________ velocititian Last edited by tompkins; 03-11-2006 at 03:16 PM.

03-11-2006, 04:05 PM	#48
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	another ROUTE can't make this up in the Aqueduct 7th 6-4-9 although THIS one was not the greatest BETTING race. 6 Backchat Jose A. Santos 3.00 2.20 2.10 4 Interline Ramon A. Dominguez 3.50 2.50 9 Bredwinner Richard Migliore 4.10 Also ran: 1 - Upthecreekwithali , 3 - Pleasant Fiction , 8 - Elements , 7 - Colonial Silver , 5 - Tech Valley __________________ velocititian Last edited by tompkins; 03-11-2006 at 04:16 PM.

03-11-2006, 04:50 PM	#49
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	The Toboggon today at Aqueduct the 4 got mugged and was steadied then checked hard but the "second string" e/l's came through as the top two finshers. 8th race - Aqueduct - March 11, 2006 Pgm Horse Win Place Show 1 Kazoo 13.00 6.40 4.70 2 Bishop Court Hill 4.20 3.20 6 Wild Jam 3.50 $2 Exacta 1-2 43.80 $2 Trifecta 1-2-6 132.50 __________________ velocititian

03-11-2006, 05:50 PM	#50
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	biased, probably I want to reiterate someting I stated earlier in that I tend to LOOK FOR TRACKS that support this internal "order within chaos," and NOT having TRIED to DIS-PROVE it, I have not looked at tracks too long where it did not work as well. So far it has worked at about 15. No angles are universal. One looks to find what the crowd does not see at a venue they are comfortable with. __________________ velocititian